Yesterday, as expected, breakout was bring the price near 46$ and then his weakness bring the price short.
Now I can see a really bearish pattern: the M bearish. The confirmation of this pattern must be searched at this support breakouts:
River and Moving Average 50 - 44.80/44.60
Support Moving Average 144 - 43.50
Support Moving Average 288 - 42
Now this supports...
As expected the breakout of 45.50 was strong long. Now we are in dangerous zone because just 1$ for 47$ and could be retracement, (47.89 is the trendline limit). Today a good chance to trading is zone 45.50 again for long position because river and ichimoku supports are at this price. Before of this price, there are others support: 45.70 (Moving Average 30), and...
Now we are at resistence test of daily time frame, the bottom of the river could be resistence. and reasonable target could be 41.90 if break the support at 44.60. Anyway breakout of 45.50 could be rail long very strong at 47$. So pay attention.
One important thing is false breakout. 123 low or 123 high at 90% can't do breakout. So now, I must keep in mind a fundamental analysis and speculation rules... there is no reason for breakout to 49$ and it can be a possible trading range at 49 and 44.30. So I try to keep short to 44 or lower and long when test the first important support. Have a fun.
Yesterday I was looking for 123 low confirmation. So.. now I'm short from 47.30 and long from 46.50. The last support for this long il 46.40 under this price could be rail short... but for long rail the first resistence is 47$ breakout could be the next target at 47.30, then 47.60 and 48 and the last 48.38. The price 48.38 is in touch with the trendline. Have fun...
As explained in my last view, I watching the resistence, but I said try short only if the price is going under 45.60, but now if you see Time Frame 30 minutes, we can see the 45.50 is support zone... so the short entry become more safe at 45.20.
At my last view I was short from 43.30, and then long cover from 41.50.
So, the short was closed and now I'm only long.
Now we are on resistence and could be a bull trap.
If the price is over 45.60 is bull rail and only if the price go back over this price I cover the long with short to protect my gain.
In the last idea I'm watching the resistence at 43.30. I had covered my long's with one short at 43.30 and now my 4 long's are gone, 2 with a little profit and 2 with a little loss.
Profit cover the loss and short cover too... now resistence are 41.82 and 41.50.
I Cover my short at this price zone.