Some might say fundamentally Australian dollar deserves something around 0.6500 level against US dollar and that's where value buyers will jump in. But well, if everybody is saying 0.6500 then we would say, add roughly 300/500 pips and make it a base level ;) So we get something in the vicinity of 0.7000. Current price is sitting somewhere in the middle because...
A quick trend like move just to suck traders in and then quick reversal to spit it out is all hallmark of summer trading environment. Like everything, it shall pass too but until that happens we are stuck with trading such treacherous moves. So how do you trade it? Well, first look at the hourly / 3-4 hour chart and define a range and pick the trade only at the...
Hopefully Fed will help clear the congestion ( or mess the things up further ) in Fx market today after FOMC release. Like old habits, entrenched trend die hard and Canadian Dollar pairs can provide some excellent trading opportunity today. USD/CAD is the most obvious pair followed by GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD. We are leaving aside AUD/CAD for time being. Let's focus...
Closing short from 1.1000 and reestablishing it at 1.1125 as mentioned in previous trade idea was a good move. We have already closed 2/3 position at 1.1055 and waiting for higher levels to sell again. 1.1200 and 1.1250 are the good resistance levels we are currently looking at. Next 24 hours can provide some good opportunities to fade any extreme moves because...
1.1000 is strong resistance as well as a big psychological level. We have taken a short from here and currently jobbing the level to get better break even. Current break even is 1.1010 and we have stop in place there. But the level we want to put emphasis on is 1.1125. Near that area we can go short EUR convincingly with good risk reward if things really heats up.
We have been advocating gold short for long time. Reasons are obvious, 1.) Fed rate hike talk 2.) No real value in holding which doesn't earn you money except in case of capital appreciation 3.) No war on sight and recent so called Grexit fears couldn't even push it few tics higher 4.) Fear mongering about inflation due to QE - Everywhere crowed is losing battle...
Short and simple - 191.25 that is ! Let's get long at this level and see what happens. Another good level which can give us few pips today with good risk reward. Again to be clear, we are not expecting big figure pips from this but it is kinda hit and run type of trade. Sometimes when there is dearth of long lasting directional trades with healthy trend, such...
USD/JPY and JPY crosses in general is retreating today. Looking at the levels to trade on short term set up, 123.00 is very attractive to get long this pair. We will be waiting for opportunity to trade near this level with long. Of course not wedded to the view of getting big jump but it can provide 20/30 pips nonetheless.
Pound can be caught up in the bouts of USD strength if EUR melts down by breaking important levels on the downside. But that can provide excellent opportunity to get long pound against yen and Canadian Dollar. First good support for GBP/JPY comes in around 192.52 and we would like to get long around that level expecting good bounce. For GBP/CAD the levels we are...
Both Australia and New Zealand have their future tied to one country and that is China. Godfather itself is in trouble and both has left to figure out their own salvation. Rate expectations keep on shifting for both but for last couple of years AUD/NZD pair has been providing excellent trend trading opportunity. Until the clear break of 1.1300, future is still...
One central bank is cutting ( Bank of Canada ) and another is talking about hiking ( US Fed ). So nothing complex here. Buy the one which is talking about hiking ( well here we are saying "Talking about" ;) because who knows if they will ever be able to do that :) ) against the dovish CB. Now the eternal question of optimum entry which defines our risk comes out...
Ideal levels to get long Pound are roughly 1.5550, 1.5450 and at last 1.5250. Fast moving trends seldom gives you a chance to get in exactly at the level of your desire. So what to do then? Instead of sitting on a fence, we would like to dabble with long near 1.5550 give or take few pips and trade around that level to bring the break-even point down. We will...
If Kiwi is bottoming in short term then it should hold the support near 0.6700 during the retest. We will be looking for the conformation during the next few session and start building a position around 0.6700 targeting 0.6900 / 0.7000. UPDATE: Long in play from 0.6705. Took partial profit at 0.6740. Now we will try to build a position around these levels by...
UPDATE: After taking partial profit at 1.1160, closing the remaining position at 1.1176. Because we don't like the way Eur is consolidating here and that can push it towards 1.1250 / 1.1300 easily if some kind of deal is done on Greek. We will see what to do if and when it reaches there. Today we would like to range trade EURUSD between 1.1050 and 1.1180.
We would like to short loonie if it goes near its previous double top ~ 2560. Let's try to play the range 2400 / 2550 initially. UPDATE: Closing position with couple of pips in profit because price action has not behaved as triple top with sharp rejection and we would not like to hold position during USA long weekend.
Another FOMC day and another time for gold to set its compass right. Good that we still haven't closed our tiny short yet ( please look at the linked previous post for more info). Since nothing has changed substantially, we are putting the same chart again with resistance lines little extended to the right ! Levels to look for short opportunity are 1200, 1220 and...
Combination of Friday, month end and US GDP data ( 8:30 EST ) can concoct unexpected. So rather than letting the profits wash away in noisy volatility, we are closing 2/3 of the position ( Short from 1.0960, as per previous trade idea ) with just 25 pips - Better than nothing ;) and brining the stop for the rest near 1.0980. Today's game plan is to look for...
If US Dollar stops to catch a breath today then dollar index is likely to consolidate between 96.50 / 97. Which roughly correlates to EUR/USD levels near 1.1000. Scaling shorts between 1.0960 and 1.1000 makes sense. Even if euro muster up the strength to have bigger correction towards 1.1100, path may not be a straight line and 1.1000 can provide intraday...