Based on the weekly close, I believe there could be room for a much larger correction to the downside in the next few weeks/months. Medium-term target @ 4000 with likely a few stops on the way :) Happy trading folks.
Price currently testing areas of support and congestion. I would estimate around a 60% chance of a rise to upper triangle resistance.
Good luck and happy trading :)
South African 10Y bonds have bounced off strong resistance. Likely to pull back to zones indicated by arrows.
Under these circumstances, this will be ZAR negative, putting an end(or pause) to the rand's rally since the begging of April.
It is also to be noted that COT positioning among non commercial traders for the ZAR is up by 3000 long and down 2000 short...
It's my opinion that we could still see some weakness in the ZAR before seeing a turnaround on the weekly graph.
My initial target is back to yearly highs at R19-35 and possibly further to R.20-00
Smart money may catch the retail bears out if they go in too deep with short positions.
A break below R17-30 would invalidate the above analysis.
Best of luck to...
Hanging man forming on the weekly graph. Likely to close below the trendline. Also possible momentum indicator divergence on the 4h graph. The fundamentals do not support the chart technicals considering we have SONA and Moody's but let's wait and see what happens in the new week. The rand is an extremely irrational currency and often moves opposite to what one...
The rand dipped below the R.14 66 mark early in the European session today pre eurozone data and ECB La Garde's speech, swiftly finding institutional buyers and a strong reversal at the reached range level.
Currently, the price is challenging the R.14 70 level, likely breaking this level during the American session and bouncing off around the R.14 77/80 region...
Currently, the rand is obeying the 1d trendline. My belief is that the market has priced in a better than expected outcome for phase 1 rollout of US-China trade deal.
The fact that the rand closed above the R.14-70 level, combined with the 3 dive pattern on the 1d chart makes me believe that we are in for a bounce towards R.15-00
The rand ended the week above the current 14.60 pivot testing lows of 14.56 late in yesterday's European session and highs of 14.70 on Thursday. The DXY also seems to be recovering after a recent selloff resuming upward momentum. From a technical perspective, the rand is currently caught between the 100 day SMA and 200 day SMA on the 1-day graph. Currently...
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The rand enjoyed some profit-taking at R15.30 this week. Trade optimism between USA and China spurred DXY weakness in the market for the last trading day of the week.
Currently, the rand is enjoying the ride breaking below the key R.15.00 level reversing upward momentum and moving into extreme oversold conditions on the lower time frame graphs (1h-4h) and...
The rand seems to be tracking the Turkish Lira today despite broad-based USD strength. A pullback is currently underway on the 1H and 4H graphs. Possible reversal at any time with FOMC rhetoric over the wires. Good luck.
From a technical perspective, Initial hurdle(resistance) stands at R13.90 and R14.00 respectively. Keep a watchful eye on the descending trendline at the R14.00 zone. Rejection at this level could spark further rand strength and possibly invalidate the aforementioned analysis.
On the docket today we have The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 02:00 (GMT) which...
