David_Warren_Ellison

David_Warren_Ellison

The S&P 500 has sure taken a beating over the past week since Jpow put out a sunset schedule on the "free money." We left some money on the table with our short last week due to an unwillingness to hold over the weekend (see linked). But we're back and ready to roll again this week with a different play. Our mission: catch the excess low and play the bounce we...

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

Previously, we rode two /ES Emini positions from the 4160's and the low 4180s past our target of 4230. See attached, which we closed last night, due to meeting our target and failure to properly break out. Today, a bearish crossover was initiated - as the 10 Day Linear Regression Line has crossed below both the 30-Day Regression Line (weaker bearish signal) and...

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

The USDNOK pair has sure taken a beating lately. But there are signs that the trend may be changing to bullish. 1. The RLCO crossover occurred Friday suggesting a new upside trend. 2. The CMF shows bullish divergence (a higher level every time a similar level in price is achieved - notice, for example, May 13 vs May 21). 3. We've possibly made a triple bottom,...

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

When the 10 Day Regression line crosses the 30 day regression line, especially when the 10-day regression line then crosses the 0.2, 14-Day Bollinger Band, it's been money on call options within the next 30 day for the past six months. Today's signal suggests that VIX will spike again prior to July 16. It's well worth it for me to possibly triple or quadruple my...

David_Warren_Ellison

ICP has made one of the weirdest patterns ever. The Bollinger bands have tightened almost beyond recognition, and we are about to make a quadruple bottom at the 2.6 stdv band. Given the extreme narrowing and being at the bottom of a defined range, it's worth putting in a long order with limited risk and possibly insane upside if this tightening of the bands...

David_Warren_Ellison

Gold has formed a double bottom (higher low) on the 30 hour 2 STDV Bollinger band. In addition, in a configuration with a high rate of success with Gold (and ES, Bitcoin, but not most FOREX unless it's commodity associated FOREX like the Ruble, NOK, or MXN), the 10 hour regression line has crossed over the 14 hour 0.2 stdv bollinger band (an improved version of...

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

Previously, we rode BTC from the depths of despair at 35,000 to nearly 40k before we suffered a major rejection off the upper 2.6 STDV Bollinger band about 2 hours ago (see linked). In addition, we see major bearish divergence developing on the Chaikin Money Flow. While this recovery has been impressive in terms of price, the indicators (I use CMF and OBV) do...

David_Warren_Ellison

With yet the third test of 4180 on increasing bullish divergence on the Chaikin Money Flow indicator, it seems clear the pump has been primed to go higher. This appears to be a bullish consolidation pattern bottoming round 4180 that should resolve to the upside. As in 2020, the S&P 500 went almost nowhere during May until the end of the month - where it broke out....

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

Ok, so I had thought we would retest the 2.6 stdv Bollinger band again (about 41k), and I would short from there; unfortunately, we didn't make it, and we have activated an RLCO crossover which is an even more powerful short signal. Down she goes (let's see - you never know because Bitcoin). Place a stop across the 10-day channel and ride it down. At this point,...

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

1. On the hourly BTC is showing a small backtest of a RLCO-based breakout earlier today which provides an excellent dip buying opportunity at 35k flat. Stop loss would trigger upon a cross back to the downside (mid 3450s right now). 2. The 30-day Bollinger bands are trending narrower which suggests some sort of regression to the mean rather than further...

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

Strongly trending markets like the S&P 500 tend to be good candidates for RLCO-based systems such as this one. It's similar to the Ken Long system, but I've made a few tweaks: 1. Increase standard deviation of the 30-day Bollinger Bands to 2.6 due to post-covid market volatility. 2. Ensure that no divergence exists on the OBV/CMF 3. Ensure that Bitcoin has some...

David_Warren_Ellison

just a place to put this

David_Warren_Ellison

Just a S&P 500 chart I made to plan trades in the coming days.

David_Warren_Ellison

Just a chart showing a comparison of the Delta between BP, Brent, and a US shale-exposed play (MRO) vs Goldman Sachs 2021 Targets. The implication is that there is still value left in European Oil Majors and particularly in US shale given the rebound in oil prices. I do not try to examine balance sheets or earnings at all. To me, these are lagging indicators...

David_Warren_Ellison

BTC has entered above its long term trend line. Either we go parabolic from here, as in early 2013 with an extended departure, or we correct with a target in the low 6k's.

David_Warren_Ellison

According to these studies, H&S that are symmetrical actually tend to perform WORSE on average: thepatternsite.com Best is when the right shoulder is lower than the left, but a higher right shoulder is better than shoulders of equal length. The main criteria are that (1) both shoulders are lower than the head and (2) the head volume is lower than the left...

David_Warren_Ellison

Read more here: www.investopedia.com Think of a Round Bottom Reversal as a Head Fake - only in reverse. That's what Bitcoin is doing to us. The cup and handle prediction from Part IV largely came true (or hasn't come true yet) but without much of a handle (yet). A Cup and Handle is just one type of round bottom reversal, and a significant handle (downtrend)...

David_Warren_Ellison

A follow up to the first idea. The bearflag on Cosmos broke down, as expected, and a downward channel has been confirmed several times.