All indications are that the rise in prices since this morning are likely a bear trap for today. The pattern for the past month implies a drop this afternoon or tomorrow. I verified this against the trends in the S&P 500's AD line. Nothing is for certain as the markets are always unpredictable.
Spent some time this weekend looking at all of the historical data from the S&P 500 back to 1995. I was looking for some basic trends that could help potentially predict what the current market is going to do. My general trend analysis shows that the market likes to move up with a long up-trend followed by short, steep down-trend. The pattern is very consistent...
Head and shoulders pattern and trend line analysis suggest AAPL may peak at $310 and looking for a retreat.
Trend line analysis plus futures up this morning are bullish sign for SPX. Looks like 2930 may be top for today, maybe 2950 if things go wild. Could wait until Monday for 2950. I am leaning towards 2930 today with a pull back on Monday. Today could be a good day to sell, will have to wait and see.
The S&P 500 (SPY) has hit its lowest trading volume since Feb 19th (right before the crash). In addition, the rally this week has had a relatively flat on-balance volume. S&P has also failed to retest April 29th high. Nasdaq has stalled at 9200. All these signs point to a high likely hood of a reversal in the markets.
For something a little different, here is a look at the NYSE Advance-Decline Line (AD Line). I am using this to look for the next market reversal. Based on this analysis, it looks like today maybe the last up day for the market with a reversal coming end of today (3:30pm), Monday, or worst case Tuesday. This analysis is supported analysis of both the SPX and VIX...
Trend line analysis plus with futures up this morning is very bullish sign that NDX is headed to 9200 today. Maybe a great day to sell in prep for a pull back early next week.
If trend holds, then NVDA should push to $315 by next week before pull back.
If trend holds, then Apple may push to $310 by early next week before next big pull back.
Though COVID-19 market crash is not a conventional crash, the market bubble that proceeded it was. I took a swag at overlaying the conventional market cycles on the current S&P 500. Obvious I am guessing at time frames and directions, but I based it on basic fundamentals. A cure for COVID-19 or some other significant market mover (Fed stimulus) can't be known and...
Tech stocks (NDX) have hit their major resistance levels twice and retreated. AAPL bounced off $300 yesterday. Is AAPL able to push to $310 today or tomorrow? Based on NDX analysis, I don't think so, but maybe AAPL will break out for at least a short time before retreating.
NASDAQ hit is major resistance line today and pulled back. Trend lines not promising. Maybe a retest Thursday or Friday. It is hard to see a push through the resistance. My guess, the end of this bull run is in sight. DJI and SPX still have a little head room left for this week, but will be in the same boat by Friday. It will be interesting to see what happens next week.
Here is an addendum to my normal analysis of the S&P 500. This time I am looking at the VIX. If the trend holds, then look for a new peak around May 11-12 with another valley around 14-15. This confirms my trend line analysis of the S&P 500 ticker.
Based on my trend line analysis, early indications look like the S&P 500 will try and retest 2950 this week or next. Trend lines are still bullish, hard bounce off the demand line at the end of yesterday's trading, and futures up 1% this morning.
It has been a crazy week the S&P 500. It seems the rise is flattening out. It did not take as big of a drop today as I thought, but some stocks were down 5% or more. That opened up some buying opportunities. It still has a slight upward trajectory, but getting very close to sideways. Maybe by the end of next week it will be sideways and looking for a turn down?...
This is a refresh of my analysis from Wednesday when I was curious if we would see a repeat of April 1st. So far it is on track. Question is how low will it go?
Follow up on yesterday's note on how the market looks just like it did at the end of March. It has all of the makings of short squeeze. Started a little earlier in the day than last time. Lets see how low this goes.