Just playing around with some curves to bound the recent 10 year trend. Haven't really thought about what the convergence point around 2029 could mean, but it does converge around $160k USD per BTC.
The NYSE composite and Bitcoin both took a serious dive in recent weeks. Bitcoin rebounded, but I think it will dip back to the long term growth trend.
Immediately following a breakout of the downward resistance trend on May 2, 2017, the price of Bitcoin moved through an up-up-down-up (pink-red-pink boxes) pattern, ultimately ending at a new high on Aug 15, 2017. The two purple boxes established a new resistance trend, which held until Nov 23, 2017, when a breakout of that downward trend then occurred.
This...
$13k feels like a false bottom. More likely support at $11,750 or $11,350. My guess is finding support in the next couple days, and again around Jan 9-14 or Feb 12. If the pattern follows the May 2017 breakout, assuming we're in an adoption curve (which is very possibly IMHO, following the CME Bitcoin Futures release), new highs again on Feb 3 ($40k) or Apr 9...
A 70% gain in the last 14 days is huge (third biggest 14-day run in Bitcoin history?). We haven't seen that kind of movement in Bitcoin since 2013.
Looking back to 2013's 14-day runs of 160% (March) and 220% (November), there are some huge volume swells accompanying them.
We aren't seeing those volume swells yet, so I'm going to buckle my seat belt and HODL.
