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Using an irregular converging triangle.
There are a number of bearish scenarios where it results in oil breaking below the triangle.
This is different in how the triangle is drawn.
- E slightly penetrated the A-C trend line
- The triangle is complete in this scenario
- Wave 1 of C is complete and Wave 2 is underway at the time of publish.
A little messy chart - my working chart so I apologize in advance for the indicators and lines.
In short w4 for C of B for EW fans is in play which should end arond 271x
w5 should carry SP to 278x range completing the harmonic, it's possible to extend higher but lower probability.
Then Wave C begins down, with two possible targets if it works out to be flat.
Simple analysis of OI including options, including last year values for seasonal comparisons.
First group of indicators are producers and consumers.
Second group is managed money.
Red is Short, Green is long and yellow is net.
Short term idea, nice cup/handle forming, needs a 50% retrace to validate, and an overlay of last years price, same time period for reference.
Expect near term short oppty, and then perhaps a prolonged decline for the season, or a snap back up to $52 then a decline.
... but here is the chart anyway.
the normal caveats for oil follow... geopolitical risks, major...
A few possible paths for WTI.
Overall Harvey is bullish for oil
- higher consumption of product from stores
- refiners world wide increasing production/consumption of crude to fill the product gap and take advantage of the RBOB spreads
- curtailed crude production in the GOM and shale
- spread between Brent/WTI driving higher exports of WTI to Asia
RSI is at peak,expect some stability until early first week of April, then a drop to 49.3x, more wedging until break out and up around the 11th.
Always the risk of extended wave 3. Timing is always dodgy with news and events
Also MM continued reducing their long positions. Recent increase in price I believe was largely driven by quarter end closing of short...
Begin with the caveat all traders understand, every pattern requires confirmation along the way. So this will be a discussion of patterns and confirmations. I tend to trade daily, so i am neither long nor short.
Pattern 1: Macro wolf wave, $65 by mid January.
Channel 1 (Yellow): bull channel from November 2016
Channel 2 (Blue) : bear channel from December...
This is one view - seems to line up with seasonality fundamentals and quarter close. With oil it's always uncertain what may happen with geopolitics and supply disruptions. Holding those aside, which is difficult, a seasonal demand pattern does exist with this commodity.
Annual fib pivots are shown.
Red lines show highs and lows.
WTI has moved into a bear market. Following support levels and patterns from last year, I anticipate another 4-5% decline in USDWTI until next August 16th. The contract rollover will serve to stimulate some buying. After two weeks of bearish 'EIA' reports, I anticipate 'EIA' next week will be bullish relative to market expectations and that will stimulate a...