KhanPhelan

KhanPhelan

Good earnings momentum got crushed due to market and Financials weakness. With current momentum a continuation of filling the open POC above the current price is possible

KhanPhelan

WE are heading into a (historic) FOMC Meeting. SPY gapped up yesterday, "semi-positive" vibes from the Kreml + jumping chinese markets pushed it higher. It produced a gap below, but for now we are above EMA 20 on the Daily. As usual during FOMC-days expect a lot of fake-outs. If we will get the 0.25 hike i assume more bullish-pushs - they will have to unwind a lot...

KhanPhelan

Still in bearish sentiment with supply chain difficulties and some raw materials from russian and ukraine. Did not manage to climb over the former resistance - now support.

KhanPhelan

After bouncing of Junes 2021 Low yesterday, Futures could not keep up the momentum and now SPY dropped below during Pre-Market. Looking very weak + we have a very strong Supply-Area above us. I tend more towards a re-test of the 410-ish low-area

KhanPhelan

Baring any News, we have a strong resistance above (clipped in the Futures) and comfortable support below. I stand a bit more bullish, will need a lot power to get through tho. Imho we have another rangebound chop-chop day.

KhanPhelan Updated 

Lot^s of Bullish LEAPS-Inflow and a nice gap above the current price. With the current Pre-Market Sentiment it could skip over the bottom re-test of the wedge and head upwards.

KhanPhelan

With strong Pre-Market movement, we are already above 2 major resistances (especially Weekly EMA 50 needs to hold). Else we have again a re-test of the big support/demand area below. Above we have yesterday's POC as important resistance. So far markets look bullish - be careful as always.

KhanPhelan

Russia/Ukraine News aside - we are still in a chop-chop consolidation minefield. Tomorrow OPEX, so most big complex option-structures will be rolled today. I expect again low volume, small chop movement without any major consequence.

KhanPhelan

$SPY is now (again) around the resistance area where it reversed from 1 week ago. Be careful in keeping any trades overnight - with tomorrow's CPI-Data there could be a hard drop to profit from ultra-bullish retail traders. Most ideas are already past Call-Trigger - wait for possible pullbacks & opportunities.

KhanPhelan

After a more or less balanced week, markets might wait for the CPI-Data (Thursday). For now, SPY could move alongside the recent Crypto-Push and (re-) test 451/2 - if bulls cannot stabilize there we will likely see a fast fall towards 445.

KhanPhelan

After a strong AH/PM supported by numbers from AMD and GOOGL, S&P Futures and SPY PM were not able to push through the larger resistance area between 457-8 This marks the 0.5 Level from the current reversal and could lead to a short-term stop. SPY-Seasonality shows a small drop for this/next week in the past as well.

KhanPhelan

Follow-through push and test if 451.50ish With momentum, it can get a breakthrough. Stronger Res at 454 I think we will have at least an attempt for a gap down after yesterdays hard Rallye

KhanPhelan

For now, PM shows a bit of strength Push towards 442 after Market Open and then Bulls and Bears decide if we have a direction or back to chop-chop

KhanPhelan

Nearly a week in consolidation with several tests and re-tests of key support & resistance areas. But, Bears showed more power and force, so i tend to bearish overall Small Bulltrap/Gap from After Hours opened below the Key-Resistance. Will likely be filled at market open with re-test if 432/33 A failure of finding small support around 427/8 will likely result in...

KhanPhelan

FOMC-DAY Today will be wild. Expect the Usual Bullish/Bearish Nightmare Candles right before the FOMC-Meeting and the usual trap and reversal. Given that the Market as a whole pushes like crazy since PM Start, i expect a top-resistance test at 442/3 With that push, a lot of Shorts trapped below from yesterday, If 442/443 fails, breakdown to give them a chance of...

KhanPhelan

For now, Futures are red - a bit understandable after yesterday's run. The day prior to an FOMC-Meeting could be a bit of green, according to historical data. But none of the macroeconomic/political issues has vanished, therefore the sentiment of the market is still bearish . We could see a flush down at Market Open, possible finding support, and creating a bear...

KhanPhelan

last week, i mentioned a possible max drawdown around $4000 in March 2022 (Big gap in $SPY). There might be a possible H&S with a downside continuation once the right shoulder is finished. Would fit into the schedule of the first rate hike in march.

KhanPhelan

If Bulls fail to recapture the lost-Support, we might see a Gap-Fill below 443 (Monthly EMA 20). If that fails, we have another long time gap below around 438.5/439 - at the same time EMA 200 daily. Bulls kinda need to show strength, else we will continue this free-fall. This is the chance for the bears to fill all gaps after the massive 2021 Bull-Run down to 402-4