You would think that the NAZ would be much lower with 10YN yield lifting. After 2 days of Short calls, looking Long today. Struggles to get lower and just bounce off lower FA Zone. FA Zone (orange box, below) is new or from today, this may be retested (usually does). If so, that is the 1st strong Long on hold or above 2 yellow KL's. Yellow Arrow is Range today and...
NAZ September range had a 7.2% decline from month high to month low and closed with a 5.2% H/L decline. For the month the NAZ only recorded a 4.20% decline. More downside is possible, the intraday price action was the month of shake outs and the worst I have ever seen. The O/N (Overnight) continues to produce what appears to be Pump/Dump set ups or Drop Offsets....
NAZ may be done with the weak Shake Outs for the next 2 days and switch to a Long Pop Up. Inverse H/S may play out. Open Drive may drop to lower target (yellow KL) and pop. Month/Quarter end may pull in some Options Exp strange moves to the up side. Will try and update some as we go.
Going with a Weekly view as we start to some Smart Money players get in the game. Sometimes you need to zoom out in order to see the bigger picture. The Post will include intraday (1HR) and Daily 3 YR chart for analysis. Red diagonal TL's (Diablo) and Red horizontal (TLX's) are TL's that are Key Levels (KL's). Yellow TL was the Short form level that was mentioned...
O/N taking out some easy FA's for Drop/Pop play. Long near 15400 for 15625 retest. NAZ continues to struggle to get and stay lower, strong Short on 15400 break. Range for CPI/Open is 15425-15525. BTD/FOMO Forever. Will update on Teams.
Need to view Sep Contract as NQ1 is off. Large Block Buying at 15240, looks like 15306 is KL for long above and Short below. Looking for retest of 306 and sideways to up in the Dead Zone. Positive Delta on orders so may be drop/pop set for Rig Friday into Monday. Will update on Teams.
Sitting Short at 15570 and targeting below. Time to drop test big and see how strong the NAZ really is. Blue Box is range or NTZ (no trade zone). Orange are FA's and easy targets below, news all day and nervous NAZ will get skittish. BTD/FOMO's have been weak, lately. Maybe early on the big Short, sometimes I am a day or so early. Watch the stalls. Will update on Teams.
New month new money and new game. The lift will be retested prior to next move higher, looking for a drop test in next few days and 15200 looks like a Target. NAZ in 100 point channel (500-600) and near top of long term channel. White arrow long and Yellow is Short. The massive (no reason) U Turn on 8/29 just sticks out like "A turd in a Punch Bowl", do not drink...
BTD/FOMO Friday. No O/N Prop Job usually leads to a Open Session rally. Tow orange TL's are potential drop zone for Short or Long set up. White is upper target should drop catch support. No drop, use upper target and on stall of Pop, use lower target zone. Orange Boxes are Failed Auctions that may attached the NAZ and then let it drop. Red/whites are O/R levels...
Since early June the NAZ bounced off 15000 and stayed in the Blu Box. On the Edge now and expect a U-Turn with the Fed Minutes (no fed-no rally). NAZ will be Propped near Danger Zone bottom, 15076-14900.
Friday Rally day, look or the drop offset to come in the Open Session as the O/N did not deliver. NAZ being held at 15145, may drop some to TLX 15107 and bounce during the Dead Zone for the BTD/FOMO's. Shaded Zone is NTZ until break out or Open Range.
NAZ in NTZ (no trade zone, orange box) and wait for break out. The KL's have been posted for days, Danger Zone is Blue Box below. NAZ tested mid DZ and will most likely break above the 430 KL and retest 553, this will be the 20th U-Turn near a cliff or Danger Zone level. NAZ just struggles to get/stay lower, BTD/FOMO forever. I will update Private on Teams.
O/N drop/pop with Danger Zone U-Turn. 15370-80 may be retested. KL's are 15346, 15417, 15473 and 15544. The arrow is range to watch for break out. NAZ also bounced off Diablo (Red TL). For now Long above 427 and Short below. NAZ is at ML (mid Level) of KL's 490 and 346. This is a NTZ (No Trade Zone), better to make trades near KL, Long from 346 and Short near 490....
Blue Box is range to watch for break out or NTZ (No Trade Zone). Strong Short under 15553 and Long on hold. Opposite direction Long at KL 15590 is retest of lower range. Past two days of tight /narrow range looks to be a set up for lower move, may go back up and retest some prior to move lower.
NAZ will most likely drop today. Two O/N no prop sessions is unheard off, the NAZ gets half or more of its gains from the O/N sessions. Yesterday close final hour or so pop (drop offset) was used to offset the O/N drop and the Open Session today should sell off as usual and take the NAZ down.
Should the O/N (persistent lifting) end and the NAZ fall outside the lower Channel Bracket, the lower arrow may be the target for a retest. If you are trading and can go flat or are flat, go long after 1st 30M Open Drive (or when Open Drop stabilizes). Most Dead Zone's, final 10M of the day and O/N Session mostly lift back up after the Open Drop. Should this...
NAZ looking at 300 point move in either direction from KL 15590. TLX at 1577 may be max lift with U-Turn on failure to pass. Expect the O/N to lift it prior to the rebalance or Open Session (one last rig prop). Orange boxes are SZ's (failed auction zones), great for opposite direction trades. No O/N lift may see drop between 1552 - 1541 and bounce to TLX. 4 HR...
Typical playbook, down in Open Session and Up in O/N. Pump and Dump Friday or Pump and Pump through Monday with Dump on Tuesday. KL's to play, today may be drop offset with some legs as the BTD/FOMO's will set up a better Short.