Mr_Dent

Mr_Dent

Copper has stormed out of the gates in June, rallying from 3.07 on May 30th to a 3.3155 intra-day high today for a mind boggling 24.5 cent rally over 6 days. To put this in perspective, we have measured all copper advances over a 10 trading day interval going back to 2000, and this ranks in the 90th percentile of all 10 trading day rallies - yet it has achieved...

Mr_Dent

The Pound Sterling has been in free-fall since marking a top on April 17 at 1.4413. Weak economic and inflation readings, coupled with a soaring US Dollar have caused funds to significantly reduce their Pound long position, with commercials cashing in their sizeable short bets - and it is this activity that has caught our attention. www.screencast.com On April...

Mr_Dent

This week the COT report for Platinum has a interesting story to tell. Please click here. www.screencast.com This is a 4 month view of Commercial activity in Platinum Futures. Factoring in a weighting and volatility component, we measure participant positioning and activity and then score this on a 18 month and 5yr basis. This is reflected as a Relative...

Mr_Dent

In scrolling through the intra-day charts, I came across a rather bearish looking pattern being painted by the algos. This caught my attention and warranted further investigation - What I found was a confluence of bearish indicators that argue for making a short bet here. Lets take a look at the evidence. 1 - The COT report as of 10/3 shows that Commercials...

Mr_Dent

The Long Bond has seen a sharp 6.5 point selloff during the past 20 Trading days. This has turned technicals and trends down, (including our own Trend indicators)- and you can be sure the trend following algos, Hedgies, and CTAs are piling on the shorts here. Not so fast though for Bond Bears - We are seeing a number of signals that at minimum a over sold rally...

Mr_Dent

Bean Oil suffered a nasty selloff from Jan 2011 through Nov 2015. What we have seen since, is a slow but steady cycle of Higher Highs and higher lows on the weekly chart. The most recent sell-off from Sep 8 17 thru today has been sharp & nasty - Dropping 4cents in 20 trading days. However, there is mounting evidence that the drop is over, and that a new...

Mr_Dent

All statistical research and signals are being generated by my proprietary platform, Alchymist. Alchymist is a Trading and Research Portal for trading Futures and Commodities. It contains decades of price and position data across 55 of the most actively traded futures. With a user friendly Front End Interface to easily access this data, traders can ensure they...

Mr_Dent

The Precious Metals sector has been on a tear since early July - Please see our prior posts detailing our tactical long positions. This being said, price ebbs and flows & both Gold & Silver are vulnerable to a sell-off here.. 1) COT data has shown aggressive selling by both Producers, as well as the Bankster Swap Dealers.. The Producer Long Future Position ranks...

Mr_Dent

Back in June we called the pending bottom and rally across the commodities complex, and profited on multiple Crude Trades. Now, after a healthy and textbook correction in CL, numerous indicators are aligning for the next wave higher. 1 - Geopolitics are in play with North Korea continuing to advance it's nuclear weapons testing at the command of their globalist...

Mr_Dent

There are few things in life that have been less fruitfull than trying to short the US Stock Markets over the past few years. Algos, Central Banks, the PPT... whoever it's been.. there has been a unambiguous and persistent bid under this market. It has turned into a run away freight train that has been relentlessly mowing down shorts and powering to new highs...

Mr_Dent

After a very profitable rally across the oil complex over the past 4 weeks, it is time to tighten up stops to secure profits and position on the short side. At present we don't know whether this pullback will be a Wave 2 correction and will make a higher low in a ongoing uptrend, or whether the current rally was merely a bear rally that ended at a lower high...

Mr_Dent

Gold has had a rough go of late, but there is mounting evidence that not only is the downtrend near it's end, but we could be setting up for a sizeable rally. Here is the setup: 1) The COT report is tipping us off to a bullish undercurrent that is hidden by the weak technicals... I score participant activity and net position over a 18m + 5yr basis factoring in a...

Mr_Dent

In looking at Crude we can see that Price has fallen between the 62-76% Fib retrace levels of this nascient rally and is finding some support here. The reason we started positioning long in Oil was based on our macro view that Commodities would undergo a counter-trend rally at minimum. The Chinese liquidity injections, severely stretched trend following algo...

Mr_Dent

Last Wed we noted numerous stars aligning for a Tradeable long position in Silver. All we needed was a rally above 16.15 and we'd be off to the races. (please read last weeks Silver commentary for full explanation). Almost on que the Banksters proceeded to bomb Silver (during the most illiquid trading hours of course) and instead of a rally we got another wave...

Mr_Dent

The greater your 2017 Gains !! As discussed in our prior posts, Soybeans formed a perfect setup with extremely Bullish Commercial positioning and activity, Favorable seasonals, Massive Trend Following short positions ready to be squeezed, and numerous statistical studies evidencing the decline was near it's end. We now have some further evidence and clues that...

Mr_Dent

We have been bullish Crude over the past 2 weeks and currently have nice profits on 2 of our prior entries. Yesterday we saw a wide ranging day close down on heavy volume, and this is a warning signal that should catch our attention. Over the prior 3 months we have seen 2 similar candles, which then proceed to form a bear flag with ascending price on lower...

Mr_Dent

Silver has had a rough go of late, but we have the conditions in place for a Tradeable bounce. Here is the setup. 1 - Very constructive COT position. Commercials 18month score on their net position is a very bullish 76%. This was as of last Tuesday with Silver @ 16.59 - The latest washout will show they added to their longs while Trend following funds continue...

Mr_Dent

Last week we highlighted the bullish setup on Beans, and today we are seeing validation of that signal. While not all trades work out this beautifully, it's important to note that all massive rallies do begin with the setup we highlighted. (please read prior post for full breakdown) The key here is that with a massive short position in beans, hedge funds are...