Bitcoins has been forming multiple Bear Flags within this larger (orange) Bear Flag. The next major target is around 11k.
Inflation fell more than expected from October to November but it's still high. Bitcoin saw a (relief rally) pump but I still think the upcoming recession is bringing BTC below 10k.
Bitcoin appears to be forming a Bump and Run Reversal Top on the 4 HR Chart. If the price can't get / stay back above the trendline, then I'm expecting a fast drop.
Bitcoin just formed a Weekly Doji Candle. The last time Bitcoin formed a weekly Doji Candle we saw a major capitulation right after. Also Bitcoin is running / getting rejected by macro resistance (right chart).
This Ascending Broadening Wedge, that I forgot about, sudden popped back up on my watchlist since we're seeing some Bearish price action. If the 16.8k support zone breaks then the price is probably going straight to 16.4k due to the gap in the VRVP.
I'm expecting a big move soon due to the decreasing ATR on the 1 Day Chart. On the 1 Week chart, it would make sense for BTC to retest 18.5k since that previously acted as strong support.
The DXY looks Bullish while BTC and S&P500 looks Bearish.
I've had some changes on my view of this Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #2 Pattern. Previously I said Bitcoin was in Phase E but I think Bitcoin is still in Phase D. In Phase D the price forms lower highs and lower lows. If Bitcoin sees a pump to 18.5k, that would still be considered a lower high, which aligns with the Phase D Price Structure.
I'm still overall bearish but I am seeing some bullish signs. This Ascending Triangle on the 1 Day Chart and Descending Triangle on the 1 Week Chart hints at a possible 18.5k Retest.
I believe Bitcoin is forming a Descending Triangle on the 1 Week Chart, similar to how it did in 2018. If so then we are seeing a retest near the bottom of the Triangle.
Some notes on the price action before the last capitulation vs the current price action.
Bitcoin is still running into resistance around its current price. Right now there's not much more I can say.
This potential Ascending Broadening Wedge appears to be playing out on the 2 Hour Chart. The Target of this pattern is around 16.2k.
Bitcoin reentered this Trading Range on the 4 HR Chart. Also the RSI broke the upward sloping Trendline so that's usually not a Bullish Sign.
Bitcoin is currently running into resistance around 17k. I don't believe we'll see a pump but if we do I'm still overall Bearish.
Bitcoin is currently holding onto the 20 EMA on the 1 Day Chart. The DXY looks Bullish and the S&P500 looks Bearish.
Bitcoin appears to have retested this Right-Angled Broadening Wedge on the 1 Day Chart. If this pattern plays out then the target is around 18.6k.
Amazon had a Distribution Phase from 1999 to 2001 and I believe Bitcoin will follow a similar price Structure. It's strange to compare Amazon to Bitcoin but I just wanted to share what a Distribution Phase looks like.