In the first time in Bitcoin's History, it appears that the 50 and 200 Weekly Simple Moving average will have a Death Cross around January 2023. We would need to see massive pump in order to avoid this scenario but I don't think that's likely.
Bitcoin appears to have retested this Potential Bull Flag on the 2 HR Chart so it looks like it's ready to pump. The target of this Bull Flag is around 18.2k.
Bitcoin is currently finding support at the 23.6% retracement so I feel like it's possible we could see a pump to the 50% Retracement around 18.4k.
This is an update to the Livermore's Speculative Chart pattern I shared yesterday. I redrew the bottom trendline since I'm never sure how to draw these trendlines correctly.
I could see Bitcoin pumping over this weekend before dropping next week. It would make sense for the whales to liquidate the shorts by pumping the price to around 18.6k, which would be a 10% pump.
I usually don't see the Livermore Speculative Chart pattern too often but it may be forming at the moment. This pattern is basically a pump and dump to liquidate the shorts and make everybody go long. If this pattern does play out, I'm going to remind myself around 18-19k that 10.4k BTC is still probably going to happen.
The S&P500 appears to be forming a Rising Wedge and the DXY appeared to have retested this Falling Wedge. This means I'm still overall Bearish on Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin can't hold above 16.4k then that means the Bullish Scenario is invalidated and the price is probably going to head towards 12k.
Here are two short term Bearish Patterns I'm watching at the moment.
It doesn't seem like Bitcoin is going to regain the 18-20k zone since it spent months there and it broke down. The next major area of support is around 12k.
These are two patterns that have a ~10.5k Price Target.
The S&P500 has yet to confirm a rejection from this Macro Resistance so for now it looks like Bitcoin is just standing by for directions on which way it needs to move.
Currently the S&P 500 is running into major resistance and the DXY appears to be retesting this Falling Wedge. If the S&P500 breaks to the upside then I believe we could see BTC Pump.
It might be too soon to be mentioning Bitcoin's next Accumulation Phase but its good to plan ahead. If you got your account blown from Defi Hacks, N. Korea hacking group, Luna / Terra, 15x leverage, SBF, Celsius, etc, I think 2023 - 2025 would be a good time to start over. I'm not sure which accumulation schematic BTC will follow, so for now I'm just using schematic #2.
Each time I see a pump, I have to keep reminding myself where Bitcoin is in its cycle. I updated this chart by adding the next trading range I believe BTC will follow.
In my last post I mentioned that we could see a pump to around 17k and that ended up playing out. After 3 weeks of sideways price action, we're starting to see more volatility appear as the price decides which way it wants to go.
This potential Strange Looking Bear Flag on the 12 Hour Chart has a target around 12k. If we see a relief rally within the next few days it'll probably go to 17k to retest the Bear Flag.
Bitcoin is currently still within this Symmetrical Triangle on the 4 HR Chart. On the 1 HR Chart we saw a separate Symmetrical Triangle Play out.