Bitcoin appears to be following this Capitulation Structure from 2018. Making contact with the Macro Trendline resulted in a bounce in 2018 and I expect it to probably do something similar this time around.
According to this Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #2 on the 3 Day Chart, Bitcoin should continue its downtrend and find support at perhaps 13.6k. It could drop lower but I think it will at least touch 13.6k From there we could see it form a zone of support before having a bounce.
Seeing this Symmetrical Triangle reminds me of May 2022 where Bitcoin formed a similar Symmetrical Triangle, it broke to the downside but that ended up being a fakeout, then we saw a massive pump. I'm keeping that scenario in mind.
Bitcoin is currently stuck between these two Trendlines. This isn't a price prediction post, I just thought it was funny noticing how Bitcoin appears to be stuck.
According to this Macro Trendline of Support (Green Line) we'll probably see a bounce around 10.5k until ultimately seeing a bottom around Summer 2023.
If Bitcoin starts capitulating, we could see a strong bounce around 13k according to this Macro Trendline. This is just my thought but I think the next Trading Range could be between ~13k and 10.5k.
It seems likely that Bitcoin could to be heading towards 10.5k over the next few months. A retest at 18.5k doesn't seem likely given the massive dump 2 weeks ago.
According to the Bollinger Band on the 1 Day Chart, Bitcoin might be trying to retest the 20 Day Moving Average (Orange Line). This is supported by an RSI Breakout on the 4 HR Chart.
Usually when the price has to make an important decision, there's volatility that wrecks the longs and the shorts. For the Bullish scenario to have a higher chance of playing out, we want to see this daily candle close above 16.7k. If BTC loses 16.4k as support then that increases the chances for the Bearish Scenario.
Currently the price of BTC is getting compressed around the Monthly S2 on the 4 HR Chart. If we see a pump then I'm expecting a price target around 18.7k. This price target also lines up nicely with a retest of this Descending Triangle on the 1 Week Chart.
Bitcoin is currently trying to get back above this Trendline on the 1 Day Chart. I'm pretty sure the Bullish Scenario is invalidated so I'm currently watching the Bearish Scenario closely.
Bitcoin lost the 300W SMA as support (18k). The next major level of support is the 400W SMA around 13.6k. 13.6k was also the 2019 Peak, so this level has a lot of significance.
According to this Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #2 on the 3 Day chart, we may be leaving Phase D and Entering the last Phase, Phase E. This is where we see another drop, a strong bounce, then a larger drop. I think BTC will find support around 13.6k because of the Bear Flag Target and .786 Fib Extension.
In the Bearish Scenario, you could argue this could be a Symmetrical Triangle. The Downside target of this pattern is around 13.8k.
Bitcoin may be having a relief rally / Dead Cat Bounce with a price target of around 18.5k. Bitcoin would need to flip 18.5k into support for a continuation of the uptrend but I don't think that's going to happen.
The Target of this Ascending Broadening Wedge was reached around 15.9k and now we're seeing a pump. The Target of this pump is around 18.5k.
The crossing of the 200 day + 200 week Simple Moving Average caused the major drop we saw last week. If 15.7k fails to hold as support then the next level of major support is around 13.7k. Correction: This is Logarithmic Scale, not Regular Scale*
This is the current chart I'm watching. I'm expecting a retest of the Monthly S3 around 15.7k. If the retest is successful, then we could see a pump to 18.7k.