Here's an update on the Psychology of Market Cycle pattern. I added color coding to the phases to make them look better.
This Descending Triangle Fractal from 2018 appears to be playing out. The target of this pattern is ultimately around 10k.
Here are a few scenarios that could play out with this Descending Broadening Wedge. Correction: Pump and no dump should be #4
Bitcoin saw a relief rally yesterday after the heavy selling from earlier this week. Also the good CPI Report yesterday pumped the traditional markets. I believe we're just seeing a Relief Rally during this larger downtrend.
Depending on which scale you are using, you could argue that the price looks bullish or bearish. If you use regular scale, then BTC just retested this macro resistance, from above, as support. If you flip on logarithmic scale then this looks extremely bearish.
I last talked about this Descending Channel Pattern on September 1st but I forgot about this chart but I just rediscovered it. Bitcoin got rejected at the central line of this channel then had a massive drop. The target of this pattern is 9.3k.
According to the Fib Extension Tool, Bitcoin has price targets at 16k, 13.6k and 10.4k.
I think we can mostly agree that this 2B Reversal Pattern is back on the table since we saw a major drop yesterday. Bitcoin formed a lower low, which is a Bearish sign.
Here's an explanation of the Pump and Dump that we saw with Bitcoin over the past week.
This is the Bearish and Bullish scenarios for Bitcoin. I believe the Bearish Case is more likely but that's just what I think.
Some notes on my thoughts of the Crypto World from this past week. If this is a Rising Wedge then we jut saw a massive breakdown over the past day.
Bitcoin cannot seem to get back above this Trendline that started forming back in 2015. Over the next year I think Bitcoin could drop to the green trendline around 6k.
Im still overall Bearish on Bitcoin but here are two Bullish scenarios.
Bitcoin has been following the major moves of the S&P 500 since Bitcoin started having a price. Right now Bitcoin is at a critical point since the S&P500 appears to be breaking down from this fractal pattern.
This Bear Flag on the 1 Week Chart is still valid and Bitcoin would need to show more bullish price action in order to avoid a potential capitulation to 10.4k. The DXY looks like it could pump through this channel.
Bitcoin had a crazy reaction to the FOMC Meeting today. First dumping then pumping harder. If this Descending Broadening Wedge pattern plays out then we could see a target price around 21k.
Bitcoin is currently running into Macro Resistance around 19.5k on the 1 Week Chart. If the current pattern is a Symmetrical Triangle then we could see a drop to around 13.5k.
On the 1 Week Chart, Bitcoin is making contact with this Downward Sloping RSI Trendline. Either Bitcoin is going to break through this trendline and have a massive pump or the price could get rejected and we see a major drop. The next 1 or 2 weekly Candles should give us a trend direction.