Ticker: GLD Position: - 21st Feb 2020 Put debit spread - Long $150 strike Put - delta 0.90 - cost = $3.65 - Short $148 strike Put - delta 0.70 - credit = $2.04 - Net cost/ spread = $1.61 - Running 5x spreads (5x of both strikes) Net cost = $805 Profit target/ break even/ exit: - Max profit of the spread at expiry = cost of the spread minus the width...
Ticker: WMT *This trade is a little more complex, than the others, as it has 2 separate spreads, but stick with me Position: 1st leg - Call debit spread - 21st Feb 2020 expiry - Long 114 Strike call = $4.85 - D = 0.99 - Short 115 Strike call = $4.25 - D = 0.95 - Net cost of 1st leg = $0.6 Position: 2nd leg - Put debit spread - 21st Feb 2020 expiry - Long...
As my prior update on the altcoin market showed (link below), there was a clear bull pennant set to breakout. It appears as though we have broken to the upside, this is a very bullish signal for the broader market and bodes very well for the crypto market as a whole. So what about target? Using a Fibonacci extension, we see there are several potential levels...
Call me crazy, but there appears to be a tremendous similarity between the price action now, and during the late 90's and 2000 tech wreck, there is one key difference, that is the 2000 price action topped out and rolled over after the final wave up, whereas the 2019-20 market found a friend with the fed's injection of liquidity into the repo markets. The end to...
Ticker: MCD Position: - Feb 14th Expiry - Long 210 Strike call = 3.78 - Delta 0.92 - Short 212.50 Strike call = 1.90 - Delta 0.62 - Net cost = $1.88 - Break even at expiry = $211.88 - Max profit = $0.62 (33%) - Run 5x contracts = $940 Profit/ Exit targets: - Exit position if MCD closes below the 21 ema on the daily - Max profit is target, you may wish to...
Position: - Long dated call options - Jan 15th 2021 expiry - $137 Strike - 0.71 Delta (ITM) - Cost = $12.10/ contract - Buy 1x contract Profit Target/ Exit: - $150 initial profit target - Two closes below $136 is exit signal (this would be around a 50-60% stop) Rationale: - GLD has broken out of the descending channel (period of consolidation) -...
Quick setup that i am watching (but not going to take due to portfolio skew is already net short) Ticker: TLT Position: - March 20th 2020 Expiry - $137 Strike Call - Delta = 0.70 - Cost = $4.18/ contract (mid offer) Profit Target/ Exit: - Initial target = $144 - Exit = close below the daily 200 SMA
Ticker: WES (right side is XLE for comparative purposes on a weekly) Position: - Feb 21st Expiry - 5x $20 Strike Puts (ITM) - delta = 0.60 - cost = $1.38/ contract - 5x $18 Strike Puts (OTM) - delta = 0.19 - cost = $0.35/ contract - Should the stock move to the initial target, the OTM options will be more than covered by the ITM options increase in premium ...
Quick update: Bitcoin appears to be stalling at the 38.2% Fib retracement (as i theorized in my prior analysis), it would not surprise me to see some further selling pressure from this most recent move up, interestingly this resistance also coincides with the 200 day moving average. Likely retesting the $8,000- $8,200 range, which coincides with the daily 21...
Analysis: From left to right (time frame is 2 week interval, except for the 4th pane, which is a monthly chart) ADX/ DMI: the downtrend appears to have lost most of it's momentum, and the trend has just crossed bullish, this will need several candle closes to confirm but a bullish cross and washed off negative trend strength is a positive sign MACD: the MACD is...
Analysis: Daily : we can clearly see that bitcoin has moved into the bullish half of the keltner channels, we can also see that we are extended, tagging the 3rd Keltner channel, this suggests that near-term it is not unexpected to see either consolidation and sideways movement, or some mean reversion. 3D: slightly further out to the 3 day interval we can see...
After a quiet few weeks on gold, the yellow metal appears to be failing in this most recent breakout attempt that was observed on the daily time frame. Weekly Time frame: This is not at all surprising when you zoom out to the weekly chart, which clearly shows excessive exuberance to the upside, rallying quite substantially outside of the 3 ATR channel (the red...
The SPX/ Gold ratio is looking like the rally in equities may be hitting it's head on some resistance. The price action is driving closer towards the overhead trendline of the descending triangle pattern, this will be an interesting level to watch, as a rejection at these levels would suggest an easing in equities and a relative gain in gold. It is my personal...
Semi-conductors are looking a bit precarious at this point, as you can see we appear to be in a serious of lower lows and lower highs, this is compounded by the falling momentum in the market as a whole. This coupled with overall weak internals lead me to believe that further weakness is not out of the question, particularly if the price action is unable to break...
Litecoin has been holding above the $44 USD mark over the past few weeks and appears to be displaying a possible bullish divergence in both the RSI and MACD, this suggests that a bounce at least near-term may be in order. This theory is also supported by the fact that litecoin has edged out of the descending channel it has been bound to recently (dotted white...
Whilst the price action on bitcoin is quite bearish at present time, there may be light at the end of the tunnel in the form of a potential falling wedge (typically a bullish reversal pattern). Interestingly, the top declining trendline coincides with the 3 day, 21 ema, therefore confirmation of a breakout would be as simple as 2 closes (with strong relative...
As any avid precious metals investor would know, the Gold/ Silver Ratio is currently flashing a strong "Buy Silver" signal, with a ratio at press time of over 87:1, this is telling savvy investors that silver is undervalued relative to gold, or that gold is overvalued relative to silver. I believe that we could quite easily resolve the rising wedge pattern and...
The Altcoin market has been beaten down for months, a minor relief rally at the start of 2019 has been followed by a slow grind lower for all but a select few names. Undoubtedly the Altcoin market is poised for a major move, the direction is unclear, but the compression in this market is undeniable. Big Picture: Left Chart - Currently sitting at the 50 period...