RobertSoos

RobertSoos

German Dax index was ahead of the 10.000 point big figure, after a false break turns down heavily...

RobertSoos

US oil output in decline, rig count data dropped below 500; these are the two main fundamental drivers of WTI crude oil. I expect to see profit taking in oil longs around the 41-42.50 levels. In FX watch out for CAD and NOK directions.

RobertSoos Updated 

Resistance: 0.7250 approached three times already, I expect it to break eventually.

RobertSoos

Caddy approaching serious technical support zone (1,33-1,34) -200 dma + trendline Need to watch for crude oil price as USDCAD and WTI intraday correlation is very strong. Also waiting for bullish reversal candlestick formation, not opening position without seeing that. Fundamentally both US and Canadian GDP figures outperformed, inflation momentum is picking...

RobertSoos

Clearly two currencies stand out from the field: JPY and GBP. First for the safe haven flow, second because of renewed Brexit fears.

RobertSoos

XLB, XLF, XLY, XLV, XLE, XLRE, XLI, XLU, XLP, XLK, VOX

RobertSoos

Safe haven money flow continues to support gold. USD also getting weaker as Fed rate hikes are getting less certain, both supportive for some XAUUSD buys. I expect SPX500 to touch lower levels next week and xauusd to go higher.

RobertSoos

Since the beginning of the bull market (2009) SPX500 had 3 bigger long runs with impulse wave 5 being the largest. Fed printing money, low inflation and improving macro data was on the side of stock investors. Some rest and profit taking can push lower the index towards the 1800's and later even lower.

RobertSoos

Given the negative market sentiment there is further potential for xauusd (gold) to rise, but some profit taking could be seen near the 100 SMA moving avarege.

RobertSoos

Pressure is growing on oil exporters as WTI breaks below $35/barrel

RobertSoos

RBA's Glenn Stevens sees AU economy in brighter form states exchange rate and low interest rates help the recovery. AUD is a carry currency, with possible US dollar rally halt in the near future AUDUSD long might be a good catch.

RobertSoos

Kiwi had a very strong run against USD mainly thanks to renewed carry trade interest. However if domestic CPI (released on Oct. 15th) will dissappoint markets will start to remember the recent words of RBNZ governor: "door is opened for further rate cuts"

RobertSoos

Since Fed's inaction to raise interest rates and the publicatin of very poor NFP data carry and commodity currencies are absolute outperformers. The trend might continue is case of further negative US data publication...

RobertSoos Updated 

When markets start to price inflationary pressure it is usually good time to buy gold. However if economic data is going to be dissapointing plus crude prices halt their ascent, gold will fall back. Need to wath for crude prices for correlation...

RobertSoos

BoJ iflation target is still far away while Japanese economy might turn into technical recession. Is the next step for Bank of Japan to increase QE? Not necessarily. It can adjust target date lets say to end of 2016 and stay in 'wait and see' mode. Oil prices can pick up meanwhile and CPI can go with it. Import prices already hurting SME's and local consumers,...

RobertSoos Updated 

CFTC non-commercial net positions for WTI oil rising for fourth week reaching 231k net long contracts. In the past similar repositioning among futures traders was in March of 2015. Goldman Sachs recently came out with unrealistic price target (20USD).Usually also a sign of reversal. Remember Gold prices in summer of 2011 what did Goldman say?

RobertSoos

Technically price approached 161.8 Fib extension + few fundamentals stand in favor of taking long positions on CAD

RobertSoos

Comments from governor Kuroda, inflation prospects reduced chance of further QQE expansion kept JPY well bid against USD in July. Trend is still strongly bullish (USDJPY) but early birds might catch a short correction in the comming weeks especially if japanese macro data keep surprising positively.