Seth-Goldberg

Seth-Goldberg

This chart shows the effective federal funds rate in comparison to the 30 year and 3 month yield over the past five years. There are 5 interesting times to look at: 1. Late 2018 long term yields began to peak right before the fed stopped their hiking cycle. Yield curve began to flatten. 2. They then stayed put for about 6 months with the 3MY hovering right...

Seth-Goldberg

2018 - Flattening curve throughout the year with some slight inversion towards the end. 2019 - Complete inversion early in the year lasting awhile. Entire curve beginning to fall. 2020 - COVID Fed response slams the short end to the ground with the longer end having a pretty muted reaction. 2021 - Curve starts to stretch with short rates being extremely low...

Seth-Goldberg Updated 

This chart shows ES with 4 long term averages - 1 year, 5 year, 10 year, and 20 year. I marked some periods where we dipped below the 1 year average and some volume spikes I saw as relevant. 2015 - Eurozone Crisis: The issues in Europe cause us to finally break the long held trend for the first time since the GFC recovery. It was preceded by a high volume...

Seth-Goldberg

The 10 year yield will not get to 3%. Since 1987 we have seen this downward trend in treasuries indicated by the channels on the chart. As of today, the 2 standard deviation peak is at 2.2% and the 3 standard deviation peak is at 2.9%. In one year it will move down to 2.0% and 2.7% respectively. There's also a chance we already peaked and we don't see a 10 year...

Seth-Goldberg

With the most anticipated FOMC announcement in a long time coming tomorrow I'm throwing out my prediction: the Fed will be surprisingly patient with their tapering. This chart shows a few reasons why: 1. M2 growth does not have anywhere close to the same effect as it did on inflation in 1970. From the 3 decades 1970-2000 the CPI Growth/M2 growth was in the...

Seth-Goldberg

TLDR: Rate hikes do not hurt the markets This chart clearly shows that the Fed raising rates does not cause market crashed. There is a narrative circulating right now that when the Fed raises rates the market is finally going to pull back worse than ever. There is no precedent for this in the last 20 years. 4 scenarios are shown: Owning the Dow only when the...

Seth-Goldberg

This chart illustrates the enter history of the Dow Industrial Average and the characteristics of different time periods.

Seth-Goldberg

Not much to say here besides what looks like a pretty clear bear flag forming after a steep drop capped off with a high-volume red candle. Don't know when we break out of the 33.5k-42k range but if we break and hold the downside I'm looking for a pretty harsh drop. If long set stops to protect your downside and if short watch for a break up above ~42k which would...

Seth-Goldberg

Bitcoins hourly volume is still extremely slanted red. The most interesting day is 5/20/21. Here we see a green day with the highest volume candle being red. I still see this as whales unloading their bags and letting retail buy it up so they can dump again. I maintain my short and feel confident reloading every time we hit the 40k level without surging past...

Seth-Goldberg

Pretty self explanatory chart here. The only volume here is to the downside. If you want to stay bullish at least protect yourself.

Seth-Goldberg Updated 

There is what looks an ascending triangle mixed with a bear flag on the hourly chart about to burst. Based on my previous posts combined with this I am very bearish here so my I am loading up on my shots with a target of around 30k. Stop loss of a little over 40k. As I've said before I think that top resistance is the most important level so if we hit my stop and...

Seth-Goldberg

The analysis I posted yesterday about a likely 200-Day EMA rejection played out nicely. While the pattern played out as predicted, the fundamental backdrop got worse significantly faster than expected. Because of this I decided to leave my stop-loss as is instead of adjust for each price level. With how firm the resistance is holding up and the volume that we're...

Seth-Goldberg

Play on rejection of 200-day EMA after bulls fail to break the downtrend with tight stop loss. Entry: 41,000 Stop Loss: 44,000 Target Price #1: 35,000 Target Price #2: 30,000 Target Price #3: 25,000 At each price target move stop loss to 10% over target value. Reasoning: First dip below 200-day EMA of the bull run. Sharp rejection possible. Potential...