ToshihiroHiramatsu

ToshihiroHiramatsu

USOIL WTI - long accumulation from hedge funds and leveraged asset funds. Likely bullish sign for upwards momentum medium term.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Quantitative analysis is a powerful tool that looks at thousands of variables to determine likely outcomes. In terms of technicals, BTC failed to close above key resistance at 67.3k - 67.5k. Short term this is bearish. A high magnitude bounce off 57.6k is expected.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

The Open Interest (OI) rose significantly yesterday on the news of HK ETF being approved. This is likely due to retail traders longing BTC with leverage. Spot selling led to a 5% drop in price but OI still remains elevated. This usually means price will go further down for a flush out. Next technical demand zone is 56k. Order books have high demand there also. We...

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Deribit and OKX quarterly futures look bearish compared to perps. This is usually a sign that price will continue downwards for the short term. Possible targets remain 60300 pqNPOC and ~56000. Even if price bounces from here, the order books look bearish overall. Any rallies will likely be sold into. 'Sell in May and Go Away' looks to have come 1 month earlier...

ToshihiroHiramatsu

CME and Deribit Options chains looking like imminent move to 84k likely within the next 1-2 weeks. Corrective move C to 68k is likely finished. Send it higher.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

BTC is in a key supply zone and with order book depth being high in the 0-1% range, it will likely lead to a significant drop in the coming days in early April. New monthly candle will create at least a wick. So I expect a 7% drop minimum given the bearish order books on multiple exchanges including all the July-September expiries.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Classic swing failure pattern on HTF. Lots of people trading with high leverage thinking AVAX will break through again above $45. I'd say this is highly unlikely. A break down below will clear out all the high leverage traders. Wait for $41 level.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

The options market is a very important aspect of how hedge funds and other large speculators place their bets on the underlying asset. The 25 delta skew on crude oil suggests high implied volatility and given the >1.2 call:put ratio of the 10-15% strike price +/- from current trading price, it means that volatility to the upside is likely. I expect a 5-6% gain...

ToshihiroHiramatsu

The options market has been a very accurate indicator for gold prices. The 25 delta skew shows that big options market makers are positioning for volatility in the coming days/week. The volatility is likely to the upside given the Dec 24 futures are trading far above the current market. Call/put ratio is above 1.2 indicating that both dealers and market makers...

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Natural gas has been shorted by several hedge funds including Citadel and AQR. It still has approximately 7-10% down price action to go from here. It is NOT safe to long, because natural gas has associated geopolitical risk. Fundamental reasons > technical analysis for this commodity. Unfortunately, it means natural gas can also go BELOW $1.50 (highly possible)...

ToshihiroHiramatsu

USDJPY seems to be everyone's hated pair. Short traders keep piling on. Open interest remains high. This means there is a lot of liquidity above 150, perhaps even above 151.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

There is a lot of liquidity above $2400. Target $2415.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Open interest has gone up far too high on ETHUSDT. It will go down 4-5% in the short-medium term to take out over-leveraged traders.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Weekly POC is $2.18. Another 12-13% downside is coming. Don't get liquidated!

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Lack of capitulation volume currently suggests that retail traders are still hanging onto their losing long positions. Once capitulation volume spikes on the Insilico Improved Volume Bars indicator, it will be time to long again.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

There is maximum liquidity between $108 to $110 level according to the order book depth analysis. Momentum is also favoring upside relief before any further correction down.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

With most airdropped tokens that get listed on FTX, they will often go down 85% - 90% before any upside. Liquidity model demonstrates that APE will hit $5 range before any significant upside reversal.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

One has to look at the big picture. We are in a diagonal parallel channel from the start of 2020 bull market. 45k was hard resistance on this channel. If you are longing here, you are technically longing into resistance. OI-weighted funding rate is high. Retail traders are blindly longing here. You do what's best for you.