Hi everyone, After seeing Japan's CPI numbers be over 3% again, it's time for BOJ to slowly but surely release the support brackets underneath the Japanese economy and for the QT to slowly take place. GBP has a lot of headwinds moving forward in terms of stagflation, lack of growth etc. The pair is technically bullish so I expect any major dips to be bought up,...
Pretty simple analysis here, looks like the pair is in a Wickoff accumulation and distribution with SL hunts, the next move either up or down will be impulsive and volatile. I am going down towards GBP/JPY going down today, seeing UK statistics, Unemployment down and wages up, portrays a typical stagflation scenario for the UK, which is a terrible outcome in the...
Here are two very simple scenarios for Gold. Looking at the macro data, we have risk off mood which should support Gold prices over the next couple of days, however should US Yields spike up, we can expect for gold to reach 1910 over the next few days, but if US Yields drop, Gold will have a field day and expect 1950 test to be done very soon.
DXY is pushing higher due to weak EU data and poor CNY data. There is nothing stopping the dollar at the moment, given there are no news catalyst apart from FED speak, I expect to dollar to hover over resistance at the supply zone, or have a very weak pullback until CPI news for China and US come out.
Looking at the data and the trend of daily and weekly chart, we are seeing a weak positive inflow, which means that the price is looking to bounce from one of the supply zones to the level of 1.33/1.34 where I can expect further weakness. The demand destruction, global recession will have dramatic impact on oil over the next 3 - 6 months, which in turn will...
Although we will see a dollar decline this year after breaking the 102 support, I can see with order flows and current speculative positions that dollar will not go down without a fight, therefore I can expect a short term technical rebound after being dramatically oversold. Keep eye out on highlighted supply zones.
After seeing a huge rejection after the speculation drop due to BOJ's potential hawkish moves, traders and hedgers called BOJ's bluff and the pair rallied over 2% on friday. Given BOE's decision to rate hikes again, which is already priced in, people will be paying note to Bailey's commentary to actual market moves. I would be staying away from going long on...
Read the news recently of Ukraine peace talks being formed in Saudi Arabia, given that analysts are banking on soft landing in the US due to great macro data and this is a perfect bad storm for Gold over the next 4 - 6 weeks. I expect for Gold to visit 1920's area to even 1900's before NFP hits the docket, and given at unemployment rates falling + more robust...
Simple analysis but looking at trading volumes of bitcoin and alt coins, the SEC lawsuit and impending regulation will see the golden age of pump and dump to be officially over. Over longer term Bitcoin should be the number 1 crypto coin, many of the alt coins will unfortunately die off as investors will move away from meme coins due to lack of volume leaving the...
Euro has gone on a bullish/short squeeze rampage, however the pair has dramatically overextended it's move and has hit a big rejection on a daily/weekly timeframe. I expect this pair to consolidate it's push from last week, and drop back down to 1.11 where it may very well make another move and tackle the 1.13 zone. Will be interesting to see the inflated...
After seeing amazing (borderline fake) data from the US yesterday, I am expecting a really strong NFP report reaching circa 300k vs 225k, this will push EUR/USD down to 1.08, should NFP disappoint I expect EUR/USD to rise to upper supply zone of 1.0925 where it will be sold off back down below 1.09 level. Sour sentiment plus really poor EU data recently puts me...
Looking at the data and moves from prior week, there are two massive areas of congestion, where the price is constantly being rejected at the top and bought at the bottom. I expect due to this short week (4th July off), for the GBP/USD cross to remain rangebound... Given that UK just missed recession by having GDP at 0.1%, the main dynamics will be around the US...
After seeing the information coming from China on Metal export ban and US potentially banning export of Chip technology, China just entered a new AI fuelled war on technology, which I do not think will pass through quickly, and since AUS is the main trading partner of China, AUS currency will get hit over the next couple of days until NFP, where there might be a...
Looking at the wider data and recent moves, I do not think that Euro has the strength to push through recent resistances, given thin liquidity today/tomorrow I strongly believe the EUR/USD pair is short term neutral to bearish with an Explosive move from NFP to occur on Friday. Therefore this is the Day traders heaven for now unless big catalyst comes before...
Seeing the EU slowdown, ECB bankers being hesitant with further rate hikes, Germany and France in technical recession and overall global growth pessimism over the next few months tells me that this pair will slowly grind down... However, FED Powell will have a lot of power over the next 2 days to really move the markets and expect for insane volatility and supply...
Paying close attention to the pair over the last week, and seeing some nice rejections of the supply zone and now seeing a double bottom on the 15 minute time frame. Seeing how China is struggling and there is a global slow down, I can't imagine Oil being strong this month, therefore I expect this pair to bounce back to 1.325 - 1.33 before the next decline to...
Simple supply zone read, USD is not done yet, terminal rate is still going to be higher, expect rangebound trading until end of Q3.
Looking at Gold contracts and even though they slightly increased yesterday by circa 2,000, it's still not enough to push the price higher. I can expect during US session for gold to do either a Fakeout or straight drop down to previous known levels. Should gold break 1970's expect a quick rise to 1980's where bears will be waiting to sell it again. Can't see...