We are starting to see breaks below the trend line, signaling a reversal of trend. It either has to go above the lower trend line, or enter a new pathway that won't be upward based. With the closing of futures, and the arbitrage still being wide, I'm expecting a collapse here in the next few days.
We're still seeing a slight upward trend, but it's following a massive breakdown, and it's on low momentum with resistance lines on the 1400 holding the index fast below. I'm still expecting another 250 dollar loss before it can gain traction again upward.
Bitcoin is hours away from the futures closing. As you can see from the chart, the arbitrage has gone wildly out of control and the dynamic range on the index has tripled. This is a bull trap if I ever saw it. When futures close, this is going to come crashing down.
We've seen the market test 232 twice recently and not been able to get below it, but now we're seeing this downtrend continue while 2 indicators that are time cycle correlated signal a strong overbought. A return to 235 is almost certain.