Lucas Numbers This is the final set of numbers for periods that we'll analyze in this series. In previous posts we discussed the significance of phi, the golden ratio, 0.618 and how Lucas Numbers relate to the Fibonacci Sequence. Using daily closes, I have overlaid the SMAs and EMAs. The same colors represent the same set of periods while the brighter color is...
The Fibonacci Sequence In a previous post we discussed phi, the Golden Ratio, 0.618. Adjacent numbers along the Fibonacci Sequence trend toward this ratio. Growth and decay can be witnessed through this proportion. Using daily closes, I have overlaid the SMAs and EMAs. The same colors represent the same set of periods while the brighter color is the EMA and the...
The Human Cycle In the previous post, we looked at standard or commonly used moving averages due to the simplicity of calculation given our base 10 number system. Now we consider if the cycles we experience as humans on earth provide us insight into the patterns seen on the charts. Using daily closes, I have overlaid the SMAs and EMAs. The same colors represent...
Moving Averages provide us with a dynamic metric to monitor current price in relation to past periods. A Simple Moving Average (SMA) is the average closing price for a set number of periods. An Exponential Moving Average (EMA) weights the most recent closing prices more than the closing prices toward the beginning of the set number of periods. The current price...
This is a cleaner chart with the relevant channel and price levels using weekly closes. Next we will take a look at Moving Averages using standard and nonstandard time periods.
Simplicity is significant. When viewing a price chart, what are the first things we notice? Highs, Lows, and Slopes As we begin to analyze a chart, note the major and highs. Like a magnet, these are price levels that price will gravitate toward and repel from over time. How price approaches these levels will give us insight into the likelihood of a continuation...
Also known as phi, the Golden Ratio can be derived by determining the proportion at which dividing the whole equals the proportion between the smaller and larger segment that together make up the whole. Algebraically, this can be describes as: x + y = 1 |x| = y / x x (and y) must be positive since they make up a whole. Isolate the variable: y = 1 - x y =...
The right channel contains the price, but it would be a mistake to simply discard the channel once it seemingly become invalidated. The chart speaks for itself; who's listening?
While the usefulness of a channel diminishes over time, I notice bitcoin moving along the same angle as it has in years past. Interestingly, the space between channels may not be coincidental. How long will bitcoin continue to appreciate at this rate? At this rate bitcoin will be back to a new all time of $70k in October 2024. Will bitcoin reach the bottom of...
To many factors at play to even come close to timing the paradigm shift, but the thesis has remained unchanged as time continues to provide supporting evidence. Fiat currencies are built upon debt, which has an element of time. Since time is a constant and cannot be manipulated, all we have to do as investors is wait. More money will continue to be created in the...
Multiple angles across timeframes currently converging, so the price of bitcoin is safe for now right here in the middle. Heavy bets being place in both directions. Volatility is expected through the end of the month (when isn't it?); +/- 33% or $24k - $48k range.
Everyone sees the market differently. Do your own research. Gold has been used as hard money since its discovery across the millennia, but money has morphed into printer paper. In the long run more fiat money will be created relative to mined metals minted. Therefore, the value of gold as priced in fiat currencies will go up over time. Following the law of...
Another top is setting up for bitcoin, so Nano is on my mind. No two lines are equal, so allow each to mean what it should when and how it is approached.
What do you think? Too conservative? Overly Optimistic?
Nothing is certain until the time comes, but I show a positive movement can ultimately come about from a near term correction. I also show the best case scenario. I expect the price of bitcoin to fluctuate somewhere between these lines.
At any moment there is supposedly an equal chance that the price will go up or down from the most recently exchanged rate. Looking at historical data, one might say that the best time to buy or sell is when it reached a certain risk level and presume similar proportions will be realized in the future and await that moment to act. This ignores macroeconomic and...