USDZAR was very, very oversold (note RSI levels). Gone long here and looking for a move back to 17.50. Stop loss at 16.40. Good luck!
USDZAR is approaching 16.60 which is the 50% fibo from the broad 13.90*19.30 move we saw earlier this year. It's been a great little comeback for the ZAR, but markets don't move in a straight line and at some point we will run out of stream. The px action this morning indicates to me that we have a lot of buyers down here. I am essentially flat but will be...
USDZAR posted a doji on Wednesday which is often a reversal indicator. There appeared to be massive buying support around 17.30. I suspect that some have gotten short at the wrong levels. Therefore I've gone long here at 17.50 and I'm looking for a short-term move to the purple zone around 18.00. I also sleep far better on weekends being long USDZAR than short....
I would like to see the gap from 102 to 160 filled in. I have been getting SASOL around my nuts lately. The cup & handle didn't really pan out as expected. We now have a bullish upward trend-line although these are generally the least reliable technical indicator. Gun to head it feels like you have to be long here - but what do I know!
Memorial Day in the US yesterday so markets subdued. Today we awake to find USDZAR super heavy and targeting 17.2750 first up. Having taken profit on my short last week, I got nothing on here. I'm also weary of selling down here trying to chase the move. You don't want to be short at the wrong level, the Rattlesnake is known to punish lazy shorts. If anything I...
I've sold the break of the recent daily trendline. Looking for a move to 17.85 and then 17.60. MPC tomorrow could pose some event risk and if there is a deeper than expected cut we could see a little pop higher in USDZAR so be careful. My average is around 18.30 so my stop is through 18.50.
Realized vol must be getting absolutely crushed as USDZAR keeps narrowing into a tighter range. We have some event risk with MPC on Thursday - a larger than expected rate cut could see USDZAR shoot higher initially which would probably be a good place to fade. The sell zone is well defined by now. Patience is key at the moment.
Game plan still intact: fade bounces to the 18.80 zone and dips to the 18.20 zone.
USDZAR consolidating into a narrower range here. I must admit it "felt" very bid yesterday. Looks like dips are being bought hard and it struggles on the downside. Keep it tidy for now but wait for that decisive break either way. Gut feel is that it will be to the topside but let's see.
USDZAR went almost straight-line from 18.02 to 18.88...I wonder if that was the WGBI flow going through the market. Nevertheless, we now find ourselves well contained by the 17.85 to 19.15 range. You have to respect these bands for now and trade them as such.
Been trading super heavy. I'm tactically short here and will look for a target around the 18.05 zone.
Really struggled to rally the last few days, it trades super heavy. Opportunistic dip buyers over the last few weeks will be getting nervous. Oil fundamentals remain weak (regardless of Sasol's oil hedges). I think we could retest the lows around 2000c. Stop loss 8000c.
Rand has been well contained between 18.50 and 19.05 over the last week. I'm guessing the range has been chopping up a number of people playing for a breakout. I'm flat here but will be keeping an eye for a decisive breakout of either side before the next play. The other pattern I have noticed lately is USDZAR weakness during the SA session and USDZAR strength...
I used the retracement to the 23.6 Fibo at 18.05 to reload a small long USDZAR position. I am looking for this to retest the highs above 19. Positioning is much cleaner now. Stop loss at 17.75. Godspeed!
Watch where we close today: a close below 18.05 opens up a deeper retracement to 17.25, a close above will keep the USDZAR bulls in play and opens up a move back to the recent highs.
Don't look now but this may still have room to run over the next few months.
I've been playing the long USDZAR trade since the rectangle breakout a few weeks ago (see my earlier posts). It's clear we have come a long way quickly. Rate cut today with SARB provides some headline volatility but I would like to start taking profit and banking some gains. The last target in USDZAR is at 18 the figure which was the high in January 2016 during a...
USDZAR has broken through the key 15.40 horizontal. After taking profits from my early Feb trade, USDZAR has fallen circa 25c overnight on the big bounce in US equities. I'm using this dip to reload my core long USDZAR view, I am looking for a move to the 16-the-figure zone. Support comes now from the 15.40 horizontal. Re-assess below 15.00.