Wichard22

Wichard22

Buying opportunity.

Wichard22

We have seen USDZAR test R16.50 in last week as well as on two previous occasions in this longer term downtrend that we find ourself in. Will we see R16.50 being tested again and then bounce weaker from there again? In our minds this is certainly the case that we expect. With all the USD weakness that is going on and being stretched currently we do feel that the...

Wichard22

We have seen the USDZAR test the 50% Fibonacci retracement line, that is from the R19.35 high we saw earlier in April 2020. The support comes in at R16.63 and this has holding for now. For now looking at the momentum on the bottom graph, the momentum is also bottoming and we expect that the USDZAR can bounce back to the R17.10 to R17.20 level, were we will find...

Wichard22

The USDZAR has traded in a range from R13.90 to R19.35 for 2020 so far. We have seen the ZAR retrace back to just above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, that is from the R19.35 high we have seen. We expect this level to be supportive in the near term and the ZAR can possible trade back towards the R18.10 level. This level was the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and it...

Wichard22

We have seen USDZAR trade within a upward trend for most of the year, then reach a new high of R19.35. We then saw the ZAR break the upward trend and trade back below R18.00, before making a move back towards R19.00. This down and up move id what formed the cup and now for the formation to be complete, we need to see the ZAR trade back towards the R19.35 level to...

Wichard22

For the past month we have been trading in this upward channel and subsequently traded at new lows for the ZAR. Although on most metrics the ZAR looks over sold, there is nothing really going for the currency to warrant a pullback. For now it looks like international funds is just going to keep pushing it weaker, even more so after the downgrade. We can probably...

Wichard22

In this market it is very difficult to call tops and bottoms, but the USDZAR has been trading in this upward channel for a while now. Looking at the trend and the MACD, it just feels that a bit of a sustained pullback is possible. All this said I will remain very cautious in this volatile market.

Wichard22

USDZAR traded up at R16.96 overnight in very illiquid markets as the crash in the oil price caused havoc. The rest of the emerging market space is also being hammered. The market is now in panic mode in these times, it is difficult to call tops and bottoms. If the trend continues the USDZAR can easily go a test the previous high of R17.50 but can just as easily...

Wichard22

USDZAR has broken most technical levels as the corona virus has caused havoc in financial markets. For now the R15.96, the 161% Fibonacci retracement level seems the next target, but the market is not adhearing to any normal convention at present. For now the small little USDZAR will take a beating from international players. All technical indicators shows that...

Wichard22

We find the USDZAR at a critical juncture, with the continuous spread of the corona virus, the market still feels risk off. USDZAR is trading back at the Nov 2019 high of around R15.18 and a break here could see us test the previous highs of R15.38 in Oct 2019. The market feels heavy and we do see a lot of export interest at these levels coupled with overdone...

Wichard22

Looking at the Fibonacci retracements, the strong support comes in at R14.85 and we need a close below this level to target the R14.66 level. With continued risk sentiment being negative a break below R14.66 does not look on the cards for now, but a positive local budget speech can change this. I for one is not holding my breath on this.

Wichard22

It seems that fundamentally all the fallout in South Africa is priced into the currency and the renewed risk off fears in the market around the corona virus has caused the latest sell of in USDZAR. It seems that the numbers have stabilsed for now and with exporters continuing to sell on the upticks above R15.00 we could possibly see USDZAR retrace to around the...

Wichard22

USDZAR has broken the R14.50 pivotal level quite substantially last week and closed the week just below another important level of R15.00. The coronavirus has really placed a dampener on the risk being taken in the market and thus USDZAR has sold off. If we have a close above the R15.00 level we can possibly have a test back at the R15.12 level, but the market...

Wichard22

USDZAR is find it self in a narrow R14.30 to R14.50 band, finding support at R14.30 and with the downward channel the USDZAR finds it self in from Sept 2019, the ZAR is trading its self into a wedge formation. With all the risk off sentiment going around and that we can find that we break briefly above R14.50.

Wichard22

USDZAR is still in a downward trend and testing the R14.50 level which it broke to test the R14.00 level. We expect the R14.50 to hold for now and USDZAR to look to test R14.00 once again. The momentum showed with the red arrow is also showing that a test stronger is possible. Importers must utilised levels lower down to look at hedges for 2020.

Wichard22

USDZAR is in a downward trend since Sept 2019.

Wichard22

There is a pennant formation forming with support for USDZAR coming in around R14.55, expect a test towards the support level before we are poised for a break of the downward trending pennant line. This will move the USDZAR quite a bit weaker.