The ES hitting this 3962 area seems very likely given the fib projection as well as the length of wave A relative to a projected wave C. However, a bounce here at the prior lows can't be ruled out completely. Much will depend on the fed meeting. Let's not rule out the downside case either. My wave C projection could easily extend beyond the 1:1 ratio or even...
Here is a rough EW projection for current ES count. Elliott Wave is great for context, but always important to remember that nothing can predict the market. Moves beyond certain levels may help guide you in terms of what kind of correction the market is making (or has made).
Market looks to have completed or is close to completing an impulse down. Now we have to monitor retracement rally. If we exceed ,618, it's possible the correction is over but I suspect not.
If we break above 18'4 we will likely retest the highs as the recent highs were front run with resistance slightly above there. If we take out the recent low, I'm neutral as no clear sign that we retest the recent low all the way down at 594. The fact that we moved above recent resistance should favor the bulls. Wave pattern is suggestive of correction rather...
Break of dotted line signals downside breakout with target down near 420. Upward break of 580 suggests further range consolidation with upward bias. Potential for wave 4 consolidation here near support.
I've been updating the EW chart for BTC and this is an interesting intersection here. On one hand we have a potential Wyckoff accumulation setup, but on the other hand a triangle at the bottom of a steep move down in EW terms usually means one more shoe to fall. The thing is, a pattern may appear to be a triangle and wind up faking everyone out with the benefit...
I posted the wyckoff distributive pattern for BTC, which unfortunately played out along with the wave count I have been following. Between the distribution, count, and multiple negative divergences, BTC just could not hold up. Regardless of the fundamental event(s) that occurred, BTC was really just waiting for an event to sell off in retrospect. Now everyone...
Just marked the chart up with Wyckoff style distribution pattern marked and of course, the current state of negative divergence across multiple highs. Not a great backdrop for bulls, but this can all change as we recently bounced off the near term last point of supply, and of course if we break the RSI trendline to the upside.
With the -D scenario weighing on BTC, along with falling out of the upward facing wedge-like pattern, it looks bearish in the short term with support at .236 and .382 as the likely stopping points. This should set up for a blow off top into the later part of the year, aligning with a potential 4 year cycle top. Wave 3 is already longer than wave 1, so there's no...
As stated to our members last night, gold violated its rising uptrend yesterday. This highlights the difference between technical analysis that's always built around 'reaction lows' or 'reaction highs' as those can be difficult to anticipate in runaway markets. Notice how we severed the trend line, then recaptured. Price action should always play a role in this...
