christian.langfors

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About me http://christian.langfors.fi
Joined traders_fi
Markets Allocation
27 % stocks 16 % forex 10 % indices 47 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
GER 31% | 28 SPY 25% | 23 EURUSD 8% | 8 DAX 7% | 7
christian.langfors christian.langfors SPY, 240,
SPY: OMG - A BROKEN TREND LINE IN SPY
47 0 2
SPY, 240
OMG - A BROKEN TREND LINE IN SPY

Lot's of fuzz in the "social investing media" about the broken SPY trend line that, well, is just a darn trend line after all. The advance this year has been quite steep and without much pullbacks so it is about time to get a different tune. There is though some points that should be pointed out: 1) the current decline differs from the previous since it is a) ...

christian.langfors christian.langfors SPY, 240,
SPY: SPY - BACK INTO THE BOX
25 0 3
SPY, 240
SPY - BACK INTO THE BOX

Is it time to go into the resistance zone (and a bit above) to test supply and demand?

christian.langfors christian.langfors GER30, M,
GER30: DAX - BTFD?
83 0 3
GER30, M
DAX - BTFD?

So, BTFD again or DFTB (deep-fuck-the-bulls)? Well, depends on ones timeframe and target I guess.. We might get a rebound soon, perhaps already tomorrow but I'm guessing this pullback is just about to start. 12k and 11,6k targets for now. GL!

christian.langfors christian.langfors CADJPY, 240, Short ,
CADJPY: CADJPY - MEAN REVERSION STRATEGY = SHORT
44 0 6
CADJPY, 240 Short
CADJPY - MEAN REVERSION STRATEGY = SHORT

CADJPY is getting somewhat stretched and the probability for a pullback is getting higher. Short now with target marked on the chart has a 57% probability with 2,09 profit factor. !!Go against the trend at your own risk!!

christian.langfors christian.langfors GER30, 240, Short ,
GER30: DAX - MEAN REVERSION STRATEGY = SHORT
132 0 5
GER30, 240 Short
DAX - MEAN REVERSION STRATEGY = SHORT

Nice move once again by DAX. Mean reversion strategy is now short, target ~12800. Note it is a high risk strategy with big stop (250p) and not that good reward but it has a high hit rate as of this year. To get better reward, try to pin point entry on 5min or 15min chart. GL!

SPY: SPY - THIS PATTERN IS NOT BULLISH
95 0 5
SPY, 60
SPY - THIS PATTERN IS NOT BULLISH

..no comments..

christian.langfors christian.langfors GER30, W,
GER30: DAX - CONSOLIDATING BUT HISTORICALLY BIG MOVE AHEAD
166 0 8
GER30, W
DAX - CONSOLIDATING BUT HISTORICALLY BIG MOVE AHEAD

DAX is currently consolidating on the weekly chart. Historically (going back to 2007), every time we'd consolidated with similar price action, we had a big move ahead in the mid term future (1-4 months). I have no backtesting probabilities on the pattern but a "visual backtest", we are getting quite far away from mean. Although it is not even close to records, ...

christian.langfors christian.langfors GER30, 240,
GER30: DAX - MEAN REVERSION SHORT STRATEGY
138 0 2
GER30, 240
DAX - MEAN REVERSION SHORT STRATEGY

A high risk (~270points stop/loss) mean reversion strategy suggesting we'll go below 12650 / 12700 during next week. Risk:reward is currently quite bad (i.e. risk more than you could gain) and the probability is around 57%. After a "visual backtest", usually we'd get another push up before we'll pull back in similar events in the past. That is, look for weakness ...

christian.langfors christian.langfors SPX500, D,
SPX500: SPX - MOMENTUM GETTING WEAKER
92 0 6
SPX500, D
SPX - MOMENTUM GETTING WEAKER

SPX momentum is getting weaker. This doesn't necessarily mean "we-go-down-tomorrow" but it is a head's up red flag, high odds trouble down the road (unless bulls find more fresh cash to swing prices higher on good momentum). Note also that momentum can be weak for a looong time before it actually turns south.

RUT: RUT - MEGAPHONE PATTERN
32 0 3
RUT, D
RUT - MEGAPHONE PATTERN

Russell 2000 index have not been painting the same kind of chart pattern as SPY or Dow. The bigger picture is starting to remind of a megaphone pattern that is quite rare and somewhat bearish.

christian.langfors christian.langfors EURUSD, 15,
EURUSD: EURUSD - A BIT NERVOUS
67 0 5
EURUSD, 15
EURUSD - A BIT NERVOUS

.. not expecting a (up) trend day today.

christian.langfors christian.langfors USDOLLAR, D,
USDOLLAR: USDOLLAR
18 0 8
USDOLLAR, D
USDOLLAR

.. no comments..

DAX: DAX - UGLY END-OF-DAY CANDLESTICK
158 0 4
DAX, D
DAX - UGLY END-OF-DAY CANDLESTICK

No matter how you look at it, the trend is still up. However, the daily candlestick/close is ugly all day. Last time we'd a corrective move down of ~-3,5% after similar close, although not identical. Just saying..

christian.langfors christian.langfors XAGUSD, D,
XAGUSD: $SILVER - AT SUPPORT
46 0 4
XAGUSD, D
$SILVER - AT SUPPORT

US Dollar silver at support, consolidating before possible up leg

christian.langfors christian.langfors XAUUSD, D,
XAUUSD: $GOLD - POSSIBLE START OF NEW UP LEG
40 0 5
XAUUSD, D
$GOLD - POSSIBLE START OF NEW UP LEG

... no comments needed...

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