I am surprised by BTC not filling in the wick to ~$42k.
It acted to frustrate everyone maximally, noted.
So Q12022 is where we find out what's what.
Since retail is out of the BTC market, will institutional allocations change the character of the market with overwhelming buying pressure?
We will know very soon. It's the last narrative that will happen...
Previously, I've stated that we have two major drivers of BTC price (and of course whatever the secondary effect of BTC price change is on all other crypto in general):
1. BTC is inversely proportional to the DXY
2. BTC is proportional to the 10 Year Treasury yield rate.
The DXY drives BTC price because, as we now know, the lion's share of BTC is...
This is playing out well to the downside.
We just pierced the retrace 0.5 Fib.
Ahead we have the 0.618 @ $812 and 0.786 @ $694.
We have filled the first gap, and are headed to gaps 2 and 3 as our story has played out in my previous posts.
We have also fallen out of and back checked the yellow downtrend channel.
The purple line is long term bull trend support,...
MATIC is about to breakout and challenge resistance levels... here are the ones I see:
2.72 - Previous ATH/ price discovery
2.85 - Uptrend
3.61 - Uptrend
4.35 - 1.618 Fib from genesis to 1.0 @ previous ATH
MATIC is a beautiful beast benefitting both from L2 on ETH and in its own right as a competing layer 1 (SOL, AVAX, etc.)
2022 should be a stellar year...
- we have a higher high
- we have a higher low
- we successfully broke out and back tested the upper bound of or downtrend channel (red)
- we broke out of our down trending RSI (4hr and daily)
We don't yet look good on the daily and we still don't have a character change in volume (in my opinion).
We didn't touch $50k before sputtering.
I am not...
- a higher low
- a breach of the major downtrend channel
- A "W" looking bottom formation
- major breach of of a down trending RSI resistance line
We don't have:
- a successful back test yet
- a higher high (back side of the W)
- a character change in volume
This will probably turn back around and look for support quickly. It's important where that...
I don't see where new buyers are coming from until the new year (institutional allocations).
Bears are in control because they have more BTC right now so they can sell down.
Too many PlanB/EoY parabolic rally folks got liquidated and have little money left. Institutions are net sellers at EoY, typically.
Enthusiasm is waning, sentiment still has room to...
Pre-market shows the (top) gap is/will be essentially filled.
There are two other gaps I see.
My LO's are sitting at $823. Because I think between now and EoY we will retrace to the 0.618, filling both the remaining gaps.
$823 gives me a little room for error and meets my personal price target since selling at $1234.
It'd be nice to see a healthy down...
Which way goes it?
Turns out, The Europeans are printing twice as much as we are.
As much as the dollar doesn't deserve it, it may show strength just based on being the least terrible.
Note the "like a boss" W bottom formation Dec 2020 -May 2021... just enough time for BTC to go crazy.
At the moment, we have created a pristine double-top on the DXY.
It's nice to see a little boost. Coming with it is plenty of CT positivism and "the bottom is in".
I can't say it isn't, but, I can say, at a glance, we are forming a bearish wedge continuation pattern on the hourly,
It's obvious on the 4 hour as well.
Patience paid off.
The 0.382 @ $976 has been back checked and should now be overhead resistance.
LO's at the 0.5 Fib @ $894 have a high chance of fill.
LO's at the 0.618 @ $811 have a medium/low chance of fill.
LO's at the 0.786 @ $694 have a low chance of fill.
Breaking down below the gray line ($880-ish) would not be favorable as it is the bull market...