SPXUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% SPX, 60% Cash . * CRITICAL RESISTANCE WATCH . Equities finished the session relatively flat as markets are sending mixed signals ahead of CPI and PPI data on 08/10 and 08/11. Crypto, Gold, VIX and Oil are trending higher while DXY and Treasuries are down. Palantir reported an earnings miss and...
ETHUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 47% ETH, 53% Cash . * SUNDAY/MONDAY SCARIES . Cryptos are a mixed bag over the weekend with some rallying and others staying relatively flat, Ethereum did the latter. The bullish narrative is still dominated by speculation of peak inflation, abnormally low unemployment, and expectations of a dovish...
BTCUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 53% BTC, 47% Cash. * SUNDAY/MONDAY SCARIES WATCH . Cryptos are attempting to rally this weekend heading into a big week for inflation data with CPI and PPI reports due on 08/10 and 08/11, respectively. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman (one of three governors who vote on FFR, Brainard and Waller being the...
ETHUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 57% ETH, 43% Cash . * The US Employment Situation was released this morning and, by some supernatural forces at play, the job Gods produced the lowest unemployment since February 2020 (pre-Covid) and Non-Farm Payrolls went up from 398k in June to 528k in July. Pair this with the improving GDP...
SPXUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% SPX, 55% Cash. * JOBS REPORT WATCH . The Employment Situation is released tomorrow (08/05) at 830am (EST) and markets seem to be rallying as if unemployment is going to stay flat or go up insignificantly. If this scenario plays out, it will be interesting considering labor force participation...
MOSUSD Weekly neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% MOS, 45% Cash . *Fertilizer and grain prices are going down as supply chains ease due to a deal between Russia, Belarus and Ukraine that allows sanctions on fertilizer exports from Belarus and Russia to be lifted in exchange for Russia allowing Ukraine to resume grain exports from the Black Sea...
ETHUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% ETH, 48% Cash. * Today in an interview with the Washington Post , Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that inflation hasn't peaked yet and that we still have a ways to go on raising interest rates but that we are "not in a recession right now"; she also mentioned that she expects...
SPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 48% SPX, 52% Cash. * NANCY PELOSI WATCH. S&P Global released their final July US Manufacturing PMI estimate this morning and it came in at 52.2, slightly lower compared to both June's PMI and the consensus estimate of 52.3; this is the lowest it has been since July 2020. The Atlanta Fed released...
BTCUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 65% BTC, 35% Cash. * SUNDAY/MONDAY SCARIES. The Crypto rally took a break this weekend with Bitcoin and Ethereum both seeing a lot of selling pressure as they retest a critical resistance, exhibiting a potential Double Top formation as a result. Equities and Cryptos have a lot of ground to still recover even...
ETHUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 87% ETH, 13% Cash. * CRITICAL RESISTANCE WATCH (SUNDAY/MONDAY SCARIES) . Cryptos are enjoying a weekend rally leading up to anticipated volatility this week with PMI (08/01) and Unemployment (08/05) numbers scheduled to report. Economic outlook aside, risk-on investors continue to creep back into Ethereum...
BTCUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 90% BTC, 10% Cash. *CRYPTO WEEKEND RALLY WATCH . Waiting for the next candle print to determine if the Bull Trap/Short Squeeze narrative has been invalidated but as of now it's looking very bullish going into this weekend. With all this talk of the Fed pivoting it should provide enough bullishness to carry...
SPX Daily bullish. Recommended ratio: 88% SPX, 12% Cash. * CRITICAL RESISTANCE WATCH . The BEA reported June PCE numbers this morning and both came in higher than last month: Core PCE (sans Food and Energy) came in at 4.8% vs 4.7% last month (also had a 4.7% consensus estimate) and PCE Index came in at 6.8% (20 year high) vs 6.3% in the previous two months....
ETHUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 85% ETH, 15% Cash. *Cryptos, Equities, Commodities (aside from Oil) and Futures are all up; while DXY, Oil (due to recent increases in global output capacity) and Treasuries are all down. There's been a clear shift in market sentiment after the Fed raised another 75bps and Powell gave a couple of hardly dovish...
SPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% SPX, 45% Cash. * BULL TRAP WATCH . META missed on both earnings and revenue estimates in addition to seeing their first drop in revenue growth; they predict that this trend will continue in Q3 and perhaps the rest of the year. Fed announced a 75bps hike today and Chairman JPow iterated that we aren't...
BTC daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% BTC, 55% Cash. * BULL TRAP WATCH . All eyes are on the FOMC statement due to be released in approximately twenty minutes (2pm EST), market consensus is a 75bps rate hike but there is still a slim chance for a 100bps. July's Consumer Confidence Index released yesterday came in at 95.7 (from 98.4 in...
SPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 48% SPX, 52% Cash. * SHORT SQUEEZE WATCH . Sentiment has switched to bearish in light of the incoming economic data this week (FFR rate hike announcement, first Q2 GDP estimate, PCE inflation index) as well as a big week of 'recession-fear inducing' earnings: Walmart missed by 12% on earnings and saying...
DXY Monthly cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% DXY, 30% Cash. *SPECULATION POST. This is my most ambitious TA yet, it is entirely speculative and inspired by recent geopolitical and macroeconomic events. On the left Y-Axis is the FFR to show the visual relationship between DXY and FFR. This chart essentially posits that we are on the brink of something...
DXY Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% DXY, 75% Cash. * US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was interviewed by NBC and explained that due to strong consumer demand, credit quality and employment, the widely anticipated two consecutive quarters of negative GDP would not constitute a recession. She is essentially the White House mouthpiece for the...