see chart for info this is not a trade call. for all your action in life _you_ are responsible. noone else to blame. dont risk more than 1-2% of your account's money for your stopploss on that (better: any) tarde idea.
The 0.618 retracement of the up impulse has appx. same level as the 1.272 extention of the first corrective downmove. this area gives me a high chance of reversal for the upside. stoploss level must go at least 10 pips below the beginning of impulse (124.60 something). very aggressive traders may watch for reversal candle at the given time and level and then...
my time projection gives me an additional clue that a change of direction at the red vertical line is in the making. i look at the corrective structure as one that may likely prepare the way for up move. it is likely that the already saw the first whole move down in that corrective structure (you may call it A to B wave + B to C) and now up (light blue arrow...
monthly there is a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern and the signal is valid. we have not hit any of the pivotal lows yet. i could imagine that price will hit and bounce down from one of the red price lines somewher between 1.16 and 1.26, then returns to the low at ~ 1.045 to form a double bottom and then we may be through with the downtrend