flyinkiwi10

flyinkiwi10

No comment really, wave C has a tendency to extend slightly over wave A in this index - not as far as 1.618 but something like 1.2. This would mean the 1:1 target is a safe one (if this alternate count is correct) for -14%. I want to keep an eye on this. Do your own research. I don't have anything against Indonesia (actually it's a lovely place), I have just...

flyinkiwi10

The Indonesian stock exchange is down and so is Vaneck's Vector Indonesia fund (not just stocks). There are signs of a post-corrective rally in the Jakarta Composite Index 45. On the face of things however, it seems hard to make the same determination about Vaneck's Indonesia Index as it appears to have just completed wave A down and some of the way through the...

flyinkiwi10

Hello all, How curious that I now spend my free time looking at charts :) Since going down 18% from its 2018 peak there are signs of a recovery. Either we are somewhere in wave B of and ABC corrective rally or the correction is complete and the index has formed wave 1 and is forming wave 2 over the next couple of weeks. Caution, as wave 2 tends towards a deeper...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Just got stopped into a short trade. Will target 15.221 as both the larger degree and smaller degree wave 1 extensions put the 1.618 extension there. Good enough for me. There should be a healthy bounce after that.

flyinkiwi10

After having posted some rather bearish views, here are a couple of bullish views. First, if the current triangle is wave (B) in an ABC correction then after the recent 5 wave down move (5 valid waves are present on some charts for silver and not for others (as the wave (ii) extreme is slightly higher than a 100% retracement on some charts - and not on others -...

flyinkiwi10

Very interessting stuff. It look like silver is about to continue wave C down as it is completing wave 2 in a 5 wave down-move. Both commodities are declining of late, although silver would appear to be closer to its support (my published TA gold has the potential to decline to ~$5 to 600 over the next few years) while gold may have only retraced partially from...

flyinkiwi10

This is just one of several scenarios that may play out: The recent down-move over the last 20 days has only extended 0.618 of the larger move (purple (A) wave) and may have an extended 5th wave that meets a 1:1 extension of (A). Saying that the recent move is a valid impulse wave down, and it could be the end of the bear-move. On a break of the wave 5 / (3) low...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Silver should shortly break the sub-wave (iv) low to confinue the wave (v) move that will finish the larger degree down-move. Expecting a bounce after that. Both the larger-degree wave extension and the smaller degree wave one extension put the 1.618 extension at 15.210 and thats good enough for me as a target.

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

After posting a medium term TA that was rather bearish, I have done a very fine-grained look at the current down-move in gold. Based on my count (feel free to disagree), gold has just completed wave (3) down and is now bouncing (after reaching very low RSI numbers) to complete wave (4) of the 5 wave move down into the high $1100s. I have two scenarios (if wave...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

After posting a medium term TA that was rather bearish, I have done a very fine-grained look at the current down-move in gold. Based on my count (feel free to disagree), gold has just completed wave (3) down and is now bouncing (after reaching very low RSI numbers) to complete wave (4) of the 5 wave move down into the high $1100s. I have two scenarios (if wave...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Is it at all possible that the DJI may have topped? I haven't done an in-depth EW analysis, and lets face it, I am no expert. But: 1. A trade war (between the USA and China, Canada, the EU, and Mexico etc) seems more likely than unlikely (whatever your beliefs may be about the benefits vs costs long-term for American Businesses and populace, I find it hard to...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Lower trend-line break. Strong chance of a price bounce to around the lower trend-line before commencing a steep decline to potentially make a 1:1 extension of wave A (primary) which would put the price down to $505 over the next 2 to 4 years. As this is a long timeline and a significant drop, I would tend to lock in profits along the way - as a full 1:1...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Comments welcome. I am not a professional and am just conducting - and publishing my analysis to develop my analysis skills.

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Natural Gas is a very popular commodity to trade. It is worth keeping an eye on for the formation of wave 1 of an up-move. It seems that the larger-degree corrective move has completed in 2016. Short-term, looking for a bounce off the lower channel trend-line.

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Silver is a very attractive investment opportunity, but as with any trade, the entry timing and price are critical. I am still looking for an extry point but regard silver as potentially very attractive as an investment / trding opportunity.

flyinkiwi10

Proposed EW count for Gulf Coast Jet Fuel Futures: Box denotes the wave travel of the minuette wave (I am not careful about using the correct EW notations) travel. I was tempted to label that as inermediate wave (3) but it would be the shortest wave and that wouldn't stack up. I would be looking for wave C to possibly make a 1:1 or 1:1.618 extension for sub-wave...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

After seeing such a steep recent decline I started looking for signs of a bullish bounce. Unfortunately, it looks brutal: 1. recently retraced more than 100% of previous up-move, which indicated additional consolidation / correction is needed. 2. While it is a little messy, I can make out a 5 wave down move from the 2012 highs. This would mean we are likely...

flyinkiwi10

Cotton isn't that interesting right now. Once wave A has formed (there will not be enough detail to count 3 vs 5 sub-waves in wave A) there will be a small bounce and then wave C down looks attractive.