giorsims

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Irrationality leads to arbitrage. Arbitrage taker is simply rationalizing the market
Markets Allocation
25 % indices 13 % commodities 63 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPX 25% | 2 SWTE 12% | 1 CB1! 12% | 1 XAUUSD 12% | 1
giorsims giorsims PRO SPX500/SB1!, W,
SPX500/SB1!: ATH? Really?
346 3 8
SPX500/SB1!, W
ATH? Really?

Central banks kept on printing money can have unwanted effect in the intrinsic value of money. With one of the function of money to store value and stock market was valued in fiat money (USD), we need to revisit what if S&P 500 valued in barter transaction with Sugar #11 (raw sugar). For sure, who does not know sugar? Everyone use sugar. From the bottom to the ...

giorsims giorsims PRO GER30*EURUSD/XAUUSD, D,
GER30*EURUSD/XAUUSD: Top of DAX?
237 3 5
GER30*EURUSD/XAUUSD, D
Top of DAX?

Looking at last weeks development after a series of interest rate decisions, we are looking into the development of gold and several currencies. Given the relative values of each market to each other, I try to see what is the relative value of DAX to gold, which is classical pre-Bretton Woods currency standard. Given more expansionary monetary policy more ...

giorsims giorsims PRO SWTE/SPX*100, W,
SWTE/SPX*100: Diminishing intrinsic value?
59 0 2
SWTE/SPX*100, W
Diminishing intrinsic value?

The graph is SWTE/SPX*100, with explanation of SWTE as below. The idea that I would like to express here, with +/- the same composition of stock, earning-weights apparently gives different result compared to the normal market cap-weights, since ca. January 2015. As you can see, the ratio was steadily around 13.9-14.2 between that and 2011 and now it has been ...

giorsims giorsims PRO XAUUSD, W,
XAUUSD: Longer View
61 0 0
XAUUSD, W
Longer View

Trading is not gambling. Gotta have long and short views at the same time. L'histoire se repete. From this principle, it's always good to think that crude and gold used to be cheap. Even with inflation/GDP-growth adjustments, market values sometime can still make no sense. However, Barrick Gold once made a press announcement that production price for gold is ...

giorsims giorsims PRO SPX500, 240,
SPX500: BEARISH?
72 1 2
SPX500, 240
BEARISH?

Crappy charting, but looks bearish to me... or turns out a rebound. But NFP data + Friday looks like a good start for bearish trend

giorsims giorsims PRO SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: Options: The Market Amplifiers
38 0 0
SPX, D Short
Options: The Market Amplifiers

Info: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-08/that-giant-sucking-sound-you-hear-is-the-etf-options-market Option pricing models built on the basis of its non-linear payoff, in which you would have delta and gamma exposures. Long an option is long gamma and short theta, with gamma is the "amplifier effect". While option-holders only knows about the ...

giorsims giorsims PRO CB1!, D, Short ,
CB1!: The irrational market
99 0 1
CB1!, D Short
The irrational market

News: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-16/saudi-prince-sticks-to-oil-freeze-ultimatum-as-iran-stays-home There is a clear relationship between oil and prices. As the main source of energy in production activity, an increase in oil can lead to a lower consumer prices, thus, deflation. With central banks mandates to adjust interest rates to inflation ...

giorsims giorsims PRO MOY0, D, Short ,
MOY0: STOXX50 / VSTOXX
79 2 3
MOY0, D Short
STOXX50 / VSTOXX

VSTOXX (Stoxx50 volatility index) is currently flirting with 4 months low level. STOXX 50 already started by touching top line of Bollinger band (20 days, 2 std dev). Comparing with S&P 500 and VIX (SP500 volatility index), we would also see +/- the same thing. Just be ready next week. Expecting at least 3% correction on STOXX50 in one of the days next week, as ...

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