goodguy

goodguy

As you know often contracting and expanding triangles often occur after a rapid rise as a form of sideways consolidation. Many times these triangles have 5 waves each of which is a a-b-c form. (EWT) Often this before the LAST bullish rise to THE TOP. It looks to me like this may well be what we are seeing in stocks. If correct we are in for a fairly rapid large...

goodguy

A couple of weeks ago I posted that a new low is oil was likely and my simple analysis by channels, RSI, and previous support levels I would rate as "good". Then subsequently I tried to "micro analyse" the minute to minute wave form trying to "better" my analysis. I should have stuck with the more sound initial analysis. All of life is living and learning....

goodguy

Common fib. relationships in corrections are A=C, A=.62 X C, and A=1.62 X C. It appears to me the later condition has been met in natural gas. Also we may be setting up for an inverse head and shoulder pattern. For my IRA I'm looking to add some LPs in gas if there pattern looks positive. They have a high dividend rate currently. If any of you have some...

goodguy

My channel idea from this weekend did not play out. If interested here is my current view. Seems like some pop up likely next couple of day. Have a short term bullish divergence in the RSI.

goodguy

This is a follow up to this chart from about 3 months ago. Hopefully the start of something big. But breaking a downtrend line can lead to sideways action, more down movement at a different rate, or up action. I favor the later. In oversold territory on the daily RSI so would not be surprised to see some stalling or correction soon.

goodguy

If you focus on the action from Nov. 2, 2015 it looks to me like IWM is in a 5 wave down pattern. (If interested how this fits into a longer term pattern you can review my other post from this morning). After a rapid drop (labeled .3) often there is a consolidation (flag, or triangle) before the next move down. It seems possible we are forming a contracting...

goodguy

I like to sometimes stand back and look at the longer term picture. Here are weekly log line charts of the SPY and IWM. The data points are based on the weekly close. Both have seemed to form nice channels. What I find interesting is the price action from the middle of 2014 in both charts looks like an expanding 5 wave triangle. Of course like all patterns I could...

goodguy

Looking at my recent postings I realize some of my labeling in inconsistent. So I will try to label again that hopefully makes more sense. Basically I see the action since the low of 1/20/16 to now as part of a A-B-C correction pattern. It still could be the start of a new larger scale 5 wave up but that seems less likely but could be considered if the recent...

goodguy

Looks to me like an a-b-c correction with the "b" wave a 5 wave expanding triangle. Will see what happens next. Good trading to you. Have a great weekend.

goodguy

The entire price action the last 3 days looks like a 5 wave up pattern.(see 15 min chart) This usually is followed by another 5 wave up pattern after a correction. The corrections can be complex (such as a 5 wave triangle) or simple (such as an a-b-c)). After that I would not be surprised to see another 5 wave move up to a new short high, perhaps to the...

goodguy

After entering at wave 2 we had a great up swing. Here is my view of the short term wave form. and channel. At about 33.20 we near the upper trend line and wave 5=1 which is a fairly common occurrence.

goodguy

My view of today's action.

goodguy

On my previous post about 9 days ago I set down target for oil at about 18-25. It got to 27.53 then we had a nice bounce up. To me the form of the upswing looks like a 5 wave up pattern. This action could just be part of a 3 wave down triangle that is still developing and might take oil up to about 36. But it could be the first indication that the longer term...

goodguy

A couple of days ago I suggested that the recent upswing in oil may be short lived and I closed my long position. We did get a correction today. Looking at the weekly longer term log chart I believe most like we will see a lower low ahead. This is based on the two channels I have drawn and the ares of longer term support. My opinion would change if the steeper...

goodguy

I closed my long position just now as I am expecting there will likely be at least a short term pull back from here. We are at the center line of the down channel and have strong negative reversal in the 2 hour rsi. The real question is will the recent bottom hold. Take care. Have a great weekend. Goodguy.

goodguy

OIl showing some life today. Bullish divergence in rsi on the daily and 2 hour charts. Shorter term down trend line broken. But recent short term high at 29.72 not taken out yet.

goodguy

As anyone knows and often mocks EWT knows all "counts are just guesses. But sometimes it can help us anticipate. This is the way I count IWM currently. IFFFFF correct price now should not going higher than (1). If the count I am showing is exactly right we should see a drop tomorrow and hopefully a break of the short term dotted uptrend line. If this should I...

goodguy

On my recent posts I suggested oil will likely have a deep correction to .78 or even to 1.0 (ie a double bottom). In the last few days the closes are all near .78 and the lows at .84 retracement. Late today we had a big pop up in oil. with another bullish candle on the daily chart and a break of the downtrend line on the 120 chart. So I am now long with the stop...