Follow up on my post of 11 days ago. I closed out my short this morning at the open. In EWT there is a correction described (irregular flat) that is an a-b-c-up followed by a-b-c-down to a new low followed by a 5 wave up to usually exceed the previous short term high. The whole formation forming a larger A-B -C. The B wave most commonly exceeds the first wave...
We have now developed a fairly large negative reversal in the daily RSI (dashed line) which usually leads to lower lows.My personal "view" of the current formation is that we are likely in an a-b-c down wave (see link below to previous post). Notice in this view b= .62 retraction of a. We are now possibly at .b which is a .5 retraction of .a.
After my lost post SLV shot right up to the lower resistance line and is now correcting. I'm not sure if todays low will be the end of the correction. It could be but we it could of course go lower to the .62 retraction level where there is a potential resistance-support line (dashed line). I'm still overall bullish.
Gold got close to the previous target but has now fallen out of the channel. So I would not be surprised to see a correction to the 50% or 62% level. Since on the 2 hour RSI we are short term oversold I personally am not going to short at this time. Plus I get uncomfortable at times shorting against what I think is the major trend. Have a good week.
Here is my current view of crude oil. I still think there is a good chance of another pop up is this a contracting triangle that is now forming (which is often seen in 4th waves). If we first get a drop below the level labeled ".1" then I am wrong.
IFFFFF I am seeing this correctly then a correction is likely to close the gap. Then major down action to follow. Take care. Have a great week.
Looks to me like once we reach the short term target (yellow box) we may well have a correction to close the gap. Will be looking for a trend line break or reversal candle pattern. Note the negative reversal in the weekly RSI and the bearish divergence in the daily RSI.
It's been about a year since I looked at the longer term view of the dollar. You can see that price has broke out above the major long term down trend line (dashed black line) which is usually quite bullish. But also there is a major long term negative reversal in the RSI which often (but not always) is bearish. If you are bullish you should expect the return of...
See post 4 days ago. Gap was closed. Bear market in financials likely starting I believe. This chart shows interesting Fibonacci relationships and channel. In EWT "B" waves not infrequently are triangles. In this case I believe an expanding triangle. Could use this weeks high or down trend line as stop. Take care
Weekly Log. Follow up from post 18 days ago. Breaking out on good volume this week. May make it to the resistance area before correction. Enjoy your weekend.
The RSI-ROC I believe is even more sensitive to reversals and divergences than the RSI. When you get a negative reversal followed by a bearish divergence as we have now (and had in November) often a significant fall follows. The gap has not completely closed so there could still be a small bounce up to close it. Well see. Just the same it all looks bearish to...
We did get a good bounce up as I suspected. I personally have closed my positions in SLV and USLV. as at this point I think it is more likely to have a pullback before another advance. But you should follow your own indicators. Have a great weekend. Goodguy
I've draw 2 major down trend lines in SLV. The one from 2012 is clearly broken. The longer one from 2011 appears to been punched through by just a smidgen and come back to the line. To me the pattern since June looks most likely to be a inverse head and shoulders basing pattern. Often this pattern demonstrates good time symmetry from to start to the low to the...
Here is my current long term view of crude oil. I favor something similar to my long term view of gold: a spread out consolidation. Although we are in a short term up trend we will have to see if the intermediate down channel will be broken. A couple of possibilities are drawn. But I think it is likely we will at least reach the down channel upper line (around...
As a follow up to yesterdays post on GLD I thought some might be interested in my feeling about what may be going on in gold longer term. Earlier in my trading I spent a lot of time using EWT and found it almost completely inadequate to use alone. But I still like it but just see it as a complex pattern recognition, which like all patterns frequently don't...
In February I posted indicating that gold had broken a long term down trend line. If you look at some of my even older charts you will see that my best guess in that longer term we are likely forming a large consolidation (triangle?) before a major final up move in gold months to years from now. Anyway shorter term notice that the breakout was on rising volume. We...
This is a follow up from 2 months ago when I suggested there would be one final up move in the Dow which started right after that. At that time I thought the likely stopping point of the rally would be the solid top black line which has now been reached. If we get a clear reversal pattern now I think we will be starting a major bear market. Of course it the...
Six months ago I published this chart thinking we were likely at THE top. The Dow Industrials have gone down since. Now I favor there likely soon will be one more pop up in stocks. I've noticed that the recent price action in many of the indices appears to be an expanding triangle pattern which is usually a sideways consolidation before the major trend resumes. ...