Price failed to brake up to the previous level, now breaking down to lower level and potentially further. Remember FED can hike rates a little higher and for longer than BoE, because USA tend to have 30 year mortgages and can handle it, whereas UK is short duration mortgages of 2~5 years and those high rates hurt a lot quicker.
Identified structure and trend. Assuming we'll reach 1.2 around Sunak's 17th November Budget.... and then a big old drop to 1:1? Let's see if the numbers add up...
Retrace to the daily high at USA open — Rishi postponed budget by two weeks, the adjusted timeframe will give the figures they use some better data (eg from the past 2 days of £/Gilts) so things will look slightly better = positive for £. 1.16 psychological number taken out today, expecting a little retrace down with a bit of range playing for the rest of the week...
it's slowly grinding down towards 1.1025, so far we've had a couple of wicks off it. Given the fundamentals - It could do a little bounce from it, but it'll smash through it over the next dozen days.
Price is hoovering around 1.116 - Look at the weekly chart, that price decides this week. The non farm payrolls will set the direction. If you use pivot point indicator, expect S1 or R1 to be taken out depending on the sentiment of the report. Possible S2 or R2 by GMT 10pm depending on strength of report and market reaction. Have fun, it's going to be profitable....
We reached the critical line today 11160 and are now bouncing around it - Friday to decide it, and the USA Nonfarm payrolls at 1:30pm uk time will be what swings it. Trade carefully before that time. If we end the week below 11160, it's a red week, above it green. That price swings the week and we literally hit 11160 exactly as NY closed, 10pm uk time. It's...
Chart explains it, short from here. Fundamentals remain same as they have been for the past six months, could say even worse for GBP now.
Short from here, then watch for scenarios A, B or C. Draw a box and see how price has battled that region to better understand where price might go next....
Needs a drop if it's going to break out past the 200ma
Rejected the 200ma. 3rd time...not so lucky. Taking a short position.
Will it break loose? or test the lower channel again? Will brexit work, or are the ECB over printing?
Lots of scalping to be had at the 1min time frame as price bounces around the box draw here in the Daily timeframe. Keep an eye out for a break out of the drawn area. A clear candle body firmly out of the zone will indicate a move. Could be as soon as mid this week. To the upside as we're under the 200ma.
It's ranging in the daily in the block indicated, 3rd time it's touched the lower bounds, not as strongly as the 2nd time. Meanwhile Rsi has a slight upward strength to it. So if strength is rising, price falling, are we heading to a break out to the downside? Or more of the same until a stronger fundamental narrative forces a price breakout?
I'm leaning towards a move up, but depending on fundamentals a move down could happen. So keeping ears open for news.