Llarge option expiries in EUR/USD at 1.0900 (758mln) which is a contributing factor to the pairs inability to break its tight-range
- Tomorrow sees even larger;options expiries at 1.0900 (1.6bln);1.0915 (500mln), 1.0845-50 (700mln) and 1.0800 (1.7bln);
-Gold (montly): 1°Resistance 1.1149 - 1°Support 1045.8 - 2°Support 990
- No strong reaction from Shanghai Composite, markets without pushing seeking a point to be consolidated
-Carry Trade Off ( long € - short Us dollar -> short EU index)
-Commodity Tumble: Deflation
-Bund&Treasury in bid - Risk Off and no inflation risk
Market View 20/07/15 (Source Twitter/RansQ- Analysis guado77) - Trade at your own risk:
- Eu stocks (Dax/FtseMib) "solved" for now "Grexit" recovered price level pre "Greece Referendum" calling (26/06/15). This level could be the "floor" for YTD HIGH for FTSEMIB and recovery 12.000 points for DAX and 2.134 for S&P500
-"Market driver" is now "the resurgence of...
28/06/2015 - h 17:00 - Rome
- Eurozone Rejects Greek Bailout Extension: All Bailout Programs Expire On June 30
- ELA to Greek banks maintained at its current level
-Greek government will be "looking overnight at imposing capital controls and closing banks on Monday
-People won't be allowed to take €300/day
-: ECB SAID TO VIEW BANK HOLIDAY FOR GREECE AS...
... "when they tell you that the Spread with Germany is at its lowest ever not believe... this is the only one that is important"...
01/01/2002 - 01/08/2009 : Spread vs DAX FTSE MIB lows . Divergence contained
01/08/2009 - 01/12/2014: BOOM BREAKS Spread between DAX and FTSE MIB . After 2000 days DAX " Overperforming " FTSE MIB approximately 130% since 2002 ( euro...
Eur vs Usd - 1 months
1.0450 main support . The break of support with the closing of the the monthly candle inside downward channel push the cross to parity by June or at the September 2015.
Trade from 1.0450 - Area of earnings up to a minimum of 2001 , stop at max last month ( March 2015 ).
The FIB retracement from top 2014 seems to confirm the...
2007-2012: Convergence between S&P500 trend and yield on Treasury 30y USA:
- Downhill stocks leads to a reduction in yields on the bond market . The flow of money coming out of the US stocks and goes to US bonds for the "safe haven" - RISK OFF.
- Rise in share prices on stocks leading the market yield bonds to rise due to the vendite.Flow of money out of the US...
-Enhancement The ruble by 18% from 2014 lows against the euro and dollario .
-Stock exchange ( MICEX ) since the beginning of 2015 to + 16 %
-Large Margin recovery for the ruble to reach the pre-crisis levels of June 2014 .
-Rate Interbank Repo 14% cut in view of the revision of reducing inflation (target 2017-4 % )
- Bond 10y 12%
- Bond corporate...
USA Bubble: Real GDP - S&P Future (excluding the dollar revaluation) = -112%
USA NO Bubble: Real GDP - Treasury 30y (excluding the dollar revaluation) = +2.4%
data up to 10/2014
THE TREASURY 30Y SEEMS TO REFLECT THE PERFORMANCE OF REAL USA ECONOMY , THE REDUCTION OF YIELD IS IN LINE WITH THE RISE OF REAL GDP AND THE STRENGTHENING DOLLAR
The Big Bubble ... as every time this time is different ... it's true this time the outbreak was unprecedented...
QE effects from the beginning - start end 2008
S&P(orange) +186% - USD/JPY +22% USD/EUR +15%
Nikkei (blue Mountain) +165% JPY/USD -22%
FTSE100(blue points) +80% GBP/EUR +21% GBPUSD+3%
DAX(green points) +201% EUR/USD -15%
MIB Italy( brown points) +46%...
While all equity markets ( DAX - SP - and today FTSE 100) are in the highest level of ever index Italian is just 2.50% up from high 2014 with a devaluation of eurusd of 20% ... also financial bubbles reflect some economic fundamentals..the italian economic is stuck at 0 % of GDP , and shows no signs of recovery...MIB index on which to speculate , and sooner or...
Bubble from QE on Italy Stock index
Compensation loss index value
The devaluation of the euro is offset by index
06062014 index 22500 eurusd 1:36
180316 index 22500 eurusd 1:05
theoretical value index change at 1.05 is 17500. The QE and the weakness EURUSD have created a bubble in the value of 5000 points.. is not now but in the end the bubbles burst...