Context: My bias is that we are in a counter trend rally that is reaching its conclusion. We have been bumping up against a trendline coming off the bottoms of lows at the end of March and beginning of April. We have also been trading in a channel with that trendline as top of the channel for about a week. Breaking the channel to the downside will put the...
Three times in the last 10+ years the S&P 500 has moved measurably through the 3rd standard deviation from the mean of this monthly regression channel. The previous two times resulted in regressions back to and through the mean. Trend reversals are hard to time, but the risk of being long here seems to be at an extreme.
