marketmind3

marketmind3

I stepped aside a couple weeks ago, even though I said the weekly charts still looked super bullish. The weekly bullish action played out and the pullback was short-lived. If you were a long-term holder, you should've stayed long anyway. The chart looks like it wants to make one more push up, so I like an entry here. On a 4-hour chart, we're back testing...

marketmind3

Eyes open if you're long. We're past the point of easy money. Hourly charts starting to show signs of weakening. I've obviously been bullish, but I'm flexible. Weekly chart for the $SPY still looks good, but can turn on a dime. By turn, I don't mean huge crash like many are praying for. I mean choppiness with some sharp moves up and down.

marketmind3

If you've been following me here, you've been long and enjoying the rally. New highs were inevitable. I still see a lot of bearishness and people picking spots to short - which tells me this market may go higher than anyone expects. More importantly, the obsession with looking for short spots tells me bears won't get their big crash delivered to them on a silver...

marketmind3

The weekly SPY chart continues to look positive. I circled areas where strong bounce weeks ended up failing and reversing to new lows. But IMO, those reversals came with poor technicals (MACD trending down and/or negative) and showed big red candles right away. Now, we're seeing different action - MACD is turning up now and last week was flattish, closing at...

marketmind3

Bitcoin back at the highs and likely has some energy to power through. Its acting well I'm still on the sidelines after selling a couple weeks ago. I'm OK missing this trade if we rally - I can wait for a better set-up and will err on the side of patience. I do feel like sentiment needs to reset a bit and get more bearish before I'll buy again.

marketmind3

In theory we are up against resistance here on SPX. But scanning the pissed off comments of most traders who are short and/or missed the train, I say there is fuel for a pain trade higher. With some technicals JUST turning today, we may have many more up days. and with weeklies turning as well, many more weeks of upside.

marketmind3

Its not an ideal set-up, but its still a breakout with multiple levels of support below. Bottom line, we have a downtrend breakout and some technical confirmation. Again, its not a slam dunk. But my gut tells me sentiment got overly bearish, so there is fuel for a rally. And we have a whole lot of support levels all the way down to $277 SPY to hold a sell-off -...

marketmind3

As I pointed out last week, the trend break and negative technical divergences predicted some possible weakness. Now what? Well, we're really only in Day 2 of this breaking down. Because BTC moves so wildly with such momentum, I don't really have a target. Instead, I wait for signs of a sell-off slowing down. Will update when that happens.

marketmind3

Very bearish chart - no reason to catch the falling knife and buy until something confirms. Weekly MACD turning negative and already below the signal is confirming this down move. No catalyst yet - I'll need at least a break of the recent weekly downtrend. Meanwhile, negative divergence on the MACD and DMI will weigh on it.

marketmind3

Most see this is as a clearly bearish chart, and they're right. But, we're still in the area where IF we reverse here, it would just look like a successful retest of the lows from last week. My gut tells me sentiment is consensus bearish, so I'm not getting bearish yet. My trade is to still look for longs, probably on the way up (a break above the downtrend at...

marketmind3

As posted a few weeks ago, Bitcoin looks as bullish as you could hope for on a weekly basis. My minor fear is that everyone's charts are saying the same thing, so now I'm seeing everyone with 10,000, 11,000, etc. targets. For those with a shorter-term time frame, I'm also seeing momentum divergences on the daily charts. Below 8,200 in the next few days would...

marketmind3

Some minor negative divergences on the daily charts point to some possible short-term weakness. But the weeklies show nothing but strength. With that backdrop, its dangerous to try to be too cute and trade short against a strong uptrend. I'll hold my longs, and possibly add in the 6,000-6,400 area if it gets there and technicals give the green light.

marketmind3

I'm going long here, with sentiment clearly bearish after the China headlines and very short-term nitpicky technical weakness. Even bears accept (are hoping for a dip) to 2,750. Any dip down would be with some clear technical divergences, which tells me everyone is waiting to buy down there. I'll take a shot being early. I'll buy SPY and QQQ Calls - early June...

marketmind3

SPX broke the short-term downtrend yesterday, but technicals didn't really confirm and we're seeing no follow-through today. We also saw pretty much an immediate reversal back to the support. We should bounce off support (looks like we are as I write this), but resistance is right up overhead. If we go back down and support doesn't hold, next stop would likely...

marketmind3

One thing to note is that the market might be trying to fake a move similar to March. So far, on the surface it looks like the week-long pullback in March, which led to more rally. Today, price action looks similar but the whole set-up is different 1. Below the 50-day MA 2. MACD in negative territory and resolving a long negative divergence 3. DMI more...

marketmind3

ES Futures confirmed its downtrend. For today, I see support at 2,860, but more likely 2,840. In either case, I would cover shorts, but not go long. The downtrend has been confirmed and we are really only in day 2, as MACD and DMI just turned yesterday.

marketmind3

Simple charts work best usually and the most basic technicals show nothing to be worried about with Bitcoin BTCUSD. Holding right at the resistance level, with no clear rejection and no signs of any divergence on MACD or DMI. In fact, weekly technicals are as smooth as you could ask for. With the momentum BTC trades with, usually better to err on the side of...

marketmind3

Even permabears have their day in the sun sometimes. Today might be that day, even a little down will turn enough indicators to get some downward momentum for a few days. Breaking $290 sets stage for the 50-day MA down in the $285 range for SPY. Ideally, we get a few failed rallies and then a breakdown before noon, which would follow a typical pattern for a trend...