With USDCAD decelerating ahead of 1.25 and GBPUSD decelerating into 1.28, including a nice reaction off the 1.2775 level from Dec 2016, I'm looking at GBPCAD to capture potential CAD weakness and GBP strength. Looking at this pair also minimises USD and EUR risk from Jackson Hole event.
- deceleration into 1.6 whole number
- 13th Jan' gap down candle offering a...
2010 low seems to be holding intraday on the H1, we have yet to close below this level on a daily basis, despite the obvious downtrend, i.e. it is getting a reaction. This is a risky long given the overall trend and recent smack-down from above 0.82, but potentially the price may seek to bounce to the daily pivot or most recent broken support at 0.8150/60. Targets...
The (2nd) weekly candle of indecision and price stabilising between two significant levels suggests a turn could be coming. The deep test to 1.0350 (part of an inverse H&S on the 1 hour chart) and failure to close below the 2005 low further confirms this. That said, rejection and failure to hold above 1.05 tells us the market may need a period of further...
This pair appears to be pushing for a break-out of a weekly trend-line, previous touches have retraced, whereas we are now consolidating against that same trend-line resistance. The monthly chart shows current price around the 23% level of the all-time high in 2007 at 1.25, to the all-time low in 2011 at 0.71, suggesting more scope to the upside. I am long and may...
Technical test of weekly trendline, currently testing resistance at .08040, forming bullish flag on H4. With an oversold AUD and negative rates set yesterday by SNB, fundamental picture also looks good, as does the mean reversion picture.
Well respected line of resistance and test candle forming, close above 1.5000 could negate the trade, stop is above the high. Fundamentally, whilst AUD is weak it is at yearly lows, whereas EUR had bounced and looks to be retracing from the highs after a trend-line break/fake. Comparing both against benchmark of the USD, EUR looks to have the greater downside risk.
Posted this as a short break of the pennant, anticipating dovish RBNZ. Wheeler however was more upbeat and affirmed rate rises and, together with today's oil weakness affecting CAD, the pair reversed. Now looks to be breaking to the upside. If it doesn't, I am closing it and relegating the pair to the stupid corner.
As per the chart text, good short technical pattern set-up and fundamental framework of dovish RBNZ, helped by recent switch in rate change bias on RBA, from hike to cuts in 2015.
