stelakis

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SPX 48% | 15 BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 35% | 11 BITFINEX:BTCUSD 12% | 4 LTCUSD 3% | 1
stelakis stelakis BTCUSD, 1D, Short ,
BTCUSD: still inside a downward channel....
107 0 2
BTCUSD, 1D Short
still inside a downward channel....

Again depending on your time frame... looking at the daily chart, BTC is still inside its downtrending channel. The V shape spike of the past year gives little information as to what can happen next... waiting to see....

stelakis stelakis BTCUSD, 1D, Short ,
BTCUSD: breaking out or topping out
293 0 2
BTCUSD, 1D Short
breaking out or topping out

BTC is flirting with the top of its long term daily channel. There is some flimsy resistance at 9500 level. The rapid rise on the left leg does permit the definition of strong resistance other then the observation that Fib level is present just about there. In stocks and markets in general nobody cares if we are right or wrong so we shouldn't either. If it ...

stelakis stelakis SPX, 1D, Long ,
SPX: have we bottomed out yet?
91 0 1
SPX, 1D Long
have we bottomed out yet?

No one can tell for sure, but the action today had the primary element of testing the 200 day Moving Average and at that level we saw the rebound for the day....Things are getting ridiculously inexpensive at this level. Bought some UPRO very very close to the 200 day MA and will nimble more as we move along. Waiting for the next weeks action. I fully expect ...

stelakis stelakis SPX, W, Long ,
SPX: the picture of SP 500 since 2014
126 0 5
SPX, W Long
the picture of SP 500 since 2014

Here I draw the periods from 2014 to today. The uptrend channel dissociates from the previous period box - valid channel. We have clearly reach the point of the buying zone. Notice there is no support below the channel. Possible to go below the channel? Of course!!! However, this is where fundamentals come in to help us with the technical analysis. The low cost of ...

stelakis stelakis SPX, 1D, Long ,
SPX: testing and retesting
185 2 1
SPX, 1D Long
testing and retesting

Funny... the analysis meter on this website has the indicator on SELL... ok... but here is the thing.. if you sell right now its too late...!! This is the time to buy.. gradually... Now, while the fundamentals of the market are beyond the scope of this "publication", here is where I think we stand from the chart analysis perspective. We retested today the 0.618 ...

stelakis stelakis BTCUSD, 1D, Short ,
BTCUSD: going lower
292 1 3
BTCUSD, 1D Short
going lower

The emotions of the group of people that bought between 4000 and 7000 is about to be tested next. BTCUSD is inside a very strong downtrending channel... This group of investors may be more content or care less to sell as their losses are seemingly smaller (compared to those that bought at 12000 or higher and now cry bitterly) so it may take longer to go through ...

stelakis stelakis SPX, 1D, Long ,
SPX: Fibonacci and more Fibonacci
143 0 2
SPX, 1D Long
Fibonacci and more Fibonacci

The reversal came this morning exactly (almost) at the cluster of 0.618 level. Hoping and bouncing etc brought us up to the cluster of 00.5 and 0.382. Retracement clusters have more validity of single clusters. With such strong fundamentals I would expect a continuation of the long term uptrend interrupted by the so called market volatility. I am definitely ...

stelakis stelakis SPX, 1D, Long ,
SPX: so what now ?
58 0 2
SPX, 1D Long
so what now ?

So Friday came and then Monday came and we are going straight down. At this point we are back inside our channel, we have normalized(somewhat), but we want to know how low can we go before we have some support. The answer is we dont know but we can use Fibonacci retracements, and more specifically cluster retracement to see where we get these magic numbers. The ...

stelakis stelakis SPX, W, Long ,
SPX: Prediction came about 3 weeks later
65 0 0
SPX, W Long
Prediction came about 3 weeks later

The model published previously predicted the next low around Jan 20th.. the complacency of the market, the constant euphoria and the absence of volatility fooled me too. While I was not 100% vested I too was much into the index (I trade UPRO) but as the chart shows we got our low- two-three weeks later!!! Moral of the story? wait -wait-wait patience is a ...

stelakis stelakis SPX, D, Long ,
SPX: a 5% correction?
197 1 5
SPX, D Long
a 5% correction?

As of this writing we are hanging at 2781. If we get a 5% correction we are going to see 2729. So by now we are already at 3.2% correction. If we get to the 5%, we dont have much more down to go. My gut feeling is that we are going to move sideways for a few days, regroup, retest and after the Bollinger Bands close enough (volatility squeeze) we will be ready for ...

stelakis stelakis BTCUSD, D, Short ,
BTCUSD: heading steady to $2500
157 0 2
BTCUSD, D Short
heading steady to $2500

Textbook example of downhill trajectory......no words....we still have people with profit waiting to cash out while newer buyers lament their decision to buy....

stelakis stelakis SPX, D, Long ,
SPX: consolidation ahead
148 0 2
SPX, D Long
consolidation ahead

We have entered a consolidation phase; when the BB close together we will have to wait to see what the action is. ...there is a chance that we may touch the middle BB and then simply bounce off again. The market has not shown an appetite for cashing out particularly as the earnings are coming in...no new money to be put to work yet....

stelakis stelakis SPX, D, Long ,
SPX: insanity - again
36 0 0
SPX, D Long
insanity - again

That was it? A days blimp? However, we are not traders to prove the market wrong, the market does not care what we think. So, just reacting to the data, we know that now we have a bitcoin like mentality where ma and pa want in stocks.... but is this a good entry point? BY FAR NOT...but the markets go up and up.. so what do we do? What I do is scale in, just to ...

stelakis stelakis BTCUSD, D, Short ,
BTCUSD: More wash out on the horizon....
146 0 3
BTCUSD, D Short
More wash out on the horizon....

As the cryptomassacre continues and late investors cant wait to recoup their losses with a "strategy" called hope, the charts indicated we will probably settle at the $5000 level.. what happens there its anybodys guess.... if the late fools re-enter the game what can say except, its ok to be wrong, what is not ok is to stay wrong.....

stelakis stelakis SPX, W, Long ,
SPX: reversal day
34 0 0
SPX, W Long
reversal day

Interesting and long awaited reversal today... the question now becomes how low is it going to go... if we consider the rule of 3 days we will wait till Friday to see that.... while the investor appetite may say something else, charts like to see a return to the middle BB for a retest and then we will see... all stops to buy must be placed above the prior days ...

stelakis stelakis SPX, W, Long ,
SPX: reversal day
29 0 0
SPX, W Long
reversal day

Interesting and long awaited reversal today... the question now becomes how low is it going to go... if we consider the rule of 3 days we will wait till Friday to see that.... while the investor appetite may say something else, charts like to see a return to the middle BB for a retest and then we will see... all stops to buy must be placed above the prior days ...

stelakis stelakis SPX, D, Long ,
SPX: heading down to the middle BB
128 0 2
SPX, D Long
heading down to the middle BB

It looks like a minor correction is finally here. We should touch 2695, the middle Bollinger band, and then we either retest or go lower. Patience so we can buy at a good entry point with a buy stop always above the last high of the previous day.

stelakis stelakis SPX, D, Long ,
SPX: Hopefully you sold "some" today....
221 1 4
SPX, D Long
Hopefully you sold "some" today....

Have a look at any chart of any "security" and see how many times the price is outside of the Bollinger Bands (BB) .... thats right... not much at all... as a matter of fact prices are inside the BB 99% of the time if not more... translation: we have gone too far too fast.. at this rate we are hitting 3400 by same time next year... not only we are "outside" ...

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