In this post 5 days ago: I analyzed that the price was definitely going to $29k. Now that we're here 5 days later (took a bit longer than I thought) - whitherto from here? I believe the price will take either the blue or pink path as drawn. We will end up at the same place, nonetheless. I think there is a high probability that we will plunge to $25k region...
This is a continuation of .. where I discussed the merit of drawing necklines based on candle bodys or candle wicks. Let's rewind a little and examine a previous heads and shoulders pattern in this SAME downturn when we hit $65k. If we draw the neckline using candle bodies, we end up with the thick yellow line. Look what happened when we broke the neckline:...
www.dailyfx.com I have been told by some people that we haven't broken the neckline yet of this H+S pattern. I says we have 3 weeks ago. It depends on how you draw the neckline. If you draw the neckline based on the body of the candle, then you get the thick white line. If you draw it on the wicks you get the thick red line. Which is correct? Well check the...
For the last 3 weeks I've been telling people and showing time and time again that my analysis was correct, that we are heading to the $17k-$20k on account of the Heads and Shoulders neckline that was broken 3 weeks ago (white line). Surprisingly even though my analysis was shown to be correct over time, over and over, I only get about 2 likes per post. Then I...
Last week (pink circle) the weekly candle ended just above the white line. What's the white line? The white line is the Heads and Shoulders neckline that was broken 3 weeks ago. The H+S pattern is 85% reliable and predicts a movement down to the $17-$18k region. What's interesting is that although the daily candle body has closed below the neckline 2 weeks...
There's no more bottom trend lines that we haven't broken until $29k. FYI - I had been charting this course for the last 2-3 weeks - so don't be saying I didn't warn you.
The orange rising wedge pattern looks like it's playing out in an inverse cup and handle pattern that I think will likely occur (pink lines). The inverse cup and handle will in turn affirm the heads and shoulders pattern (85%) reliable which indicates that the bottom is around $17k. Note: the heads and shoulders neckline was broken 2 weeks ago. So don't be in...
Okay, before the weekend I analyzed the price would go to the red circled area; instead the price took a slight pause, which was a correction wave. I have observed that a correction wave is characterized by alternating red and green candles, whereas an impulsive wave is noticeably different and consists of many successive same-color candles. You can see that all...
See red circled MACD flipping. I like to watch when the MACD indicates it's about to transition from green to red or from red to green, at different time scales to see what I can learn. I see that after the price hits an upper trend line as it did the last couple of days, as the daily MACD begins to flip to red, and especially if it's at the start of the week,...
The last time I wrote, on Saturday morning, we were at the red circle. I wrote as an addendum that I would be looking at successive red hourly candles to determine if we are going down to the lower blue line of the falling wedge ($30k region). I did not see the hourly candles, so I did not conclude that we were indeed going to $30k. Instead over the weekend the...
See the red circled areas in the past, they represent the first correction: 2 attempts to break the bearish trend before a plunge to the blue circle. Yesterday and today we see the same thing: 2 attempts to break the bearish trend (each attempt resulting in a lower higher) before a plunge: likely to the second blue circle around $31k. Be careful though, there's...
IMO, Elliott Wave is a ton easier to see and confirm than Wyckoff. Any time we are in a downturn, you'll have hopeful bulls chime in that we are in a Wyckoff accumulation period. Now while I agree in the general principles of Wyckoff, the actual behavior of the price movement DOES NOT FOLLOW THE WYCKOFF DIAGRAM!! It only follows in principle, but it looks...
See this article: cointelegraph.com which discusses BTC fundamentals, and how NVT ratios suggest that we have resumed the bull run, even though the technicals clearly show we still haven't completed the correction. But fundamentals don't matter. You know why? Because this: cointelegraph.com .. bitcoin trading allows shorts. In 2 hours, a trader can come in...
See what I wrote yesterday here: And the price is going down as we speak. I expect it to hit the bottom line of the blue falling wedge around the $30k mark. This is almost a certainty. Support for this: 1. H+S neckline that was broken a week ago (thick white line) 2. orange rising wedge estimated drop level (matches the $30k region exactly. Coincidence? ...
What do you think? It amazes me when people are still drawing their arrows pointing upward. I have drawn every possible trend line, including long-term ones dating back to 2008. All the bottom trend lines drawn since the downturn from $65k has been broken except one (circled in red). Zero upper trend lines have been broken. What do YOU think is going to...
Okay, several people have replied to my analysis saying that the H+S neckline was not broken, but it was indeed broken. The neckline is taken as the bottom most solid daily candle of the neck (yellow circles), the neckline is the thick white line. You can see that the neckline was broken in the red circle area (daily candle close below the neckline). The price...
Here is my price analysis for the next 2 weeks (blue path) 4 days ago I charted this course: .. and the price followed it exactly. That of course doesn't make me a prophet, but it does confirm all the patterns I've drawn. Summary: a. Orange ascending wedge (bearish pattern) - confirmed b. blue descending wedge (bullish pattern) - in progress, but if we go down...
(See yellow circle). Why does the price keep bouncing off this white line? Because it is the H+S neckline. If you look back, you can see we have already broken it with several full daily candle closes, the price rebounded a little, but this is the final struggle before we plunge below the neckline to $17k.