therealbencrypto

therealbencrypto

The market fundamentals are obviously bearish, but we've been living in an upside down universe for the past months. The technicals are providing a perfect storm. TD gave us multiple signals. The 20 day moving average has proven to be resistance. Today's gravestone doji looks ominous. I'm setting up some shorts on the indexes and watching VIX.

therealbencrypto

I have some reasons to see a push to somewhere around 9,4 to 10,3. That weekly 8 and the support at the weekly 50sma are encouraging for the bulls. Current entries at 7,8-7,9 have an excellent risk-reward, with laddered stops starting just below. If we get a new low, it should be at least as far down as 7,3, so longs should hold close stops.

therealbencrypto

The chart says it all. If this breakout continues up, we should see a retest of 14k. If it drops significantly from here, a second failed breakout and a third lower high would look pretty bearish. I am still long (spot) from under 10k and have a small short hedge just under 12k. Will adjust position sizes when the chart is clearer.

therealbencrypto

Notes on the chart say it all. That red daily is a textbook reversal candle. TD would say to watch that red 2 today. If it trades above the red 1, we can expect a continued uptrend, but would take this more as a signal to close shorts and wait to open longs. TD would suggest that if today closes below the open, we should consider that as a confirmation of the 9...

therealbencrypto

This incredible, nearly-parabolic reversal has surprised more than a few analysts, this one included. While many anticipated the "double inverted head and shoulders" would take BTC above $8,000, the long-term bear trend with lower lows combined with shorter-term technical indicators had me anticipating a pullback before this point. Profit-taking on long...

therealbencrypto Updated 

I had a great long on BTC yesterday and managed to get a short in right at the top. Now we have the perfect storm of bearish indicators. From the Tom DeMark sequential indicator: a perfect 9 and aggressive 13, and a red 2 trading below a red 1. Shooting star doji at the top. Time to go short and look for a good exit. The Fibonacci levels will help.

therealbencrypto Updated 

Though it would be a shorter recovery than from the last three drops, it appears that BTC is about to break down again. Lower highs and lower lows over the past days shows BTC trending down toward the bottom of the channel (i.e., bear flag). A 4-hour candle closed with a red 2 trading below a red 1 on the TD Sequential. A drop below 5980 today would give us a...

therealbencrypto

See the indications from the TD Sequential, Vix Fix, and TUX EMA Scalper noted on the chart. There are several signs that a short would be sensible. Higher leverage shorts may want to place a very close stop, just above 6760. Otherwise, a stop at 6860 would close on a breakout. I see a breakdown below 6650 to be likely to drop to 6400 or below, perhaps retesting...

therealbencrypto Updated 

We have three signs of reversal: TD Sequential. Breaking of the descending trendline. Bounce off the descending trendline. We may have one sign that the reversal is invalidated: TD Sequential, if the 4hr continues to show 2 trading below 1 when it closes. A second invalidation would come in the form of the previous low breaking, and this would be a...

therealbencrypto

A weak breakout from the wedge followed by a breakdown from the neckline of a head & shoulders , and extremely low volume , all together spelled disaster. I had put out a call privately to short when the neckline broke, and to add to the short when support at 7050 broke. Both proved to be the correct moves. Of course, the best move was a short at when the first...

therealbencrypto

My projection for DCR proved accurate. Here are the 4 scenarios I see coming up.

therealbencrypto Updated 

BTC has just barely broken out of the wedge I addressed earlier. It did so with low volume, and formed dojis on the 4 hour, suggesting the breakout did not inspire sufficient confidence to rally to 8,000. I expect that we will drop down. I see three scenarios in play, indicated by the green, orange, and red lines.

therealbencrypto Updated 

Bitcoin has maintained a position above an ascending trendline beginning in November, at the bottom of the last correction before the December bull run, hitting the prior two lows at ~5900 and ~6450. It has been in a descending channel for weeks, and traders have speculated on the possibilities of <6000 pricing. I see no rationale to support this until the...

therealbencrypto

That drop was predictable. The bottom trendline broke just after a bearish divergence on the 1 hour. Lots of other bearish signals to negate a steady increase. But the drop stopped abruptly at ~7370, the original start of the last leg up. For me, it should have dropped further, and perhaps it still will. But this has the appearance of a "bear trap," triggering...

therealbencrypto

DCR had a solid run, and a correction has been imminent. Aided by the sharp drop in BTC, Decred broke the first Fib level and dropped hard. It bounced twice off the 50 level when the RSI bottomed out, and a wedge with higher lows and lower highs has formed. One failed breakout attempt suggestions that the buy set up at the current price is aggressive. If the...