upslidedown

upslidedown

After the clear reset from the last analysis, we bounced upwards as I expected. Notice the oscillator: curling up with plenty of room above. We could make a double top here with a solid rejection but my expectation remains bullish. Anything below 416 means we're in for a larger retracement and is a good short opportunity. In short: Long only, expecting price...

upslidedown

The last candle close of May was a pullback to the most recent swing low/swing high 0.5 retrace. Bulls seek to remain in control but are exhausted here. Taking a breather and expecting some price action off the 0.5/0.618 retrace while we "pause" is entirely expected. From a price action perspective I see a lot of selling pressure above meaning that selling could...

upslidedown

SPY now has a clean breakout to the upside. At this point I would expect any pullbacks to 416 to be met by buying demand. Often you'll see critical levels retested, so 416 would make an excellent long entry. Watching for scalp entries on the lower timeframes but I expect continuation into the mid 420 zone from here.

upslidedown

Finally a breakout from the "I hate this zone" zone! Feels like a month now. Tomorrow open will be key. An epic fakeout would be to gap down back into the bad zone. I remain cautiously bullish though with the idea markets want to trend higher. Follow through and remain above the zone and I am looking for long opportunities only. The key level to defeat is 416,...

upslidedown

Quick update on my medium term chart. We have been stuck in this 405-415 range for what feels like ages... 1+ months. At this point all I want is a break of that zone as the "in between" feels like a "lose all your money zone." Pocket support continues to hold, so buyers are favored. I believed for a long time in the 420+ case with that H&S pattern but less so...

upslidedown

Interest rate decision moved markets down to the 405 gap after what I found to be a VERY hard to trade price action reaction. Today we consolidated in a bear flag pattern with a gap above as clear resistance. Clear the gap at 408 and its possible for bulls to recover. But for tomorrow (Friday) bears have a chance to show up again and break this back to the major...

upslidedown

Bears showed up as per yesterday's confirmation (see related post) and we found support just below 409. That's a bit deeper than I expected today but well within a pullback threshold. Tomorrow is interest rate decision. It's a total lotto guess where things will go from here: gaps at 405 and 415 both beg to be filled. The initial move will most likely wick into...

upslidedown

As expected from old chart levels, boss bears showed up right on time at the 416 level for a second round. We're now below 416 with momentum crossing down in oscillator. I call that confirmation. Sure looks to me like we're on a path downward until we find some support. My guess is we're headed back to that 411 zone before we can make it into the 420ish zone....

upslidedown

In the spirit of "buy the rumor sell the news" I expect GALA at some point to get significantly bullish ahead of the May 15th event. What you see here is consolidation at the "mean" (monthly pivot point). As a bullish thesis, one could DCA through the fib pullback of the most recent up move with the expectation to take profits at the last major high (or even...

upslidedown

Inverse head and shoulders officially confirmed and we have a clear path to 425. I don't expect it to be quick or easy, this market has been nothing but chop! This is a rally to fade but as long as retail is piling in I will as well.

upslidedown

Boring consolidation. I'm still waiting for a move here on TSLA. Any gap down with momentum could create a beautiful island. Bulls MUST defend 187.7 DOL line or else. Oscillator supports bulls with momentum rising. As long as we can stay above the DOL line I am neutral-to-bullish. Still hopeful my long term short will play out into the 140 zone.

upslidedown

Choppiness prevails. This is a premium sellers dream and a nightmare for swings. Looks to me like the low is in for the short term cycle. Price never dipped low enough into the diag demand zone I projected on the 23rd for the bullseye target Price seems to have found some support off the indecision zone today. I'm neutral-to-bullish until we lose 394.5. In...

upslidedown

SPY opened today within my "interesting zone" — an area with substantial gaps up down/left/right and a place where I had no idea what to expect. For a moment, it looked like we might actually break out! But a swift and final rejection of this zone on the last 65m seals the deal for me to sum up a bearish thesis. All signs point to more down as we seek liquidity...

upslidedown

I've been tracking a TSLA long term short from a prior idea and was greedy expecting price to trace back to 150 levels. With the bearish nature of the past couple day's moves, a gap down creating an island is just what the doctor ordered for TSLA to continue its downward path. TLDR Open gap down I’m super bearish. Continue to range in this 190+ zone I will...

upslidedown

With multiple rejections of the long term trend line (I've now marked this as a potential diagonal supply zone) and the blue liquidity zone, there is nothing bullish about where we closed. BUT with huge data releases tomorrow there's no real point to reading much into what TA tells us because data is going to let the market rip whichever way it decides to rip...

upslidedown

Crash. Closing anywhere below the old “liquidity magnet / demand zone” and the “peak resistance line” is ultra bearish. I expect max fear in the market Monday open. Bulls only hope is a quick reclaim of 388-389, otherwise momentum could carry us swiftly to the mid-to-high 37X zone. I have 376 as my next bearish target on this chart with an upside target of 394...

upslidedown Updated 

TSLA structure break with a little wick low makes me think we're about to get one final clearout above before descending into a gap fill. There are two key levels above... I'm highly suspect we could get to the second. Entry levels for short: Level 1: 207 Level 2: 227 Stop loss: 249 Take profit target: 146

upslidedown

WOW what an unexpected breakdown before the news. Yesterday's broadening wedge idea completely failed after a retest of the diagonal s/d zone I have in yellow. With major uncertainty brewing in data releases tomorrow, who knows what tomorrow brings. Support below is quite loose. The long term trend line connecting all prior peaks sits right at 389. A retest of...