PROS
+Not a proper bear harami but at the top (res) of the trading range
+ Good R:R
CONS
- NO confirmation that the mkt will turn
- aggressive trade with a soft stop for a close above res (not so difficult to guess where the SL have been placed...)
PROS
+ Friday shooting star
+ descending res TL
+ at 38 fib level
+ today candle shape
+ stoch overbought
+ in trend trade
CONS
- mini bull channel
- R:R not so attractive
No sign of significant change in trend at the moment.
The recent swing low should be broken at the end of today session.
Possible res from a rising TL,
Next target is supp area defined by the recent 3 bull patterns (also BB is converging).
Friday candle closed below res.
The mkt has tried to recover but the new res has capped the move for now.
But price is sitting at 61.8 fib level and could develop another bull attempt in the near term.
Considering from a bigger perspective (big box range), a possible down move to the next res levels are the most likely scenario..
The candle pattern formed Friday is a very small dark cloud cover at a monthly res level (red line)+ rising diagonal res line.
A lot of former res now supp zones (red arrows - light blue rectangle) make this setup not so attactive from R:R point of view. Also to be considered the small bull channel and the ascending diagonal supp line).
For risk taker "only"
PROS
+3rd bull candle patter confirming supp
+stoch bull divergence
CONS
- not so attractive R:R in the near term
- inside bear channel
- stop under weak support is risky; should be placed under lower light blue rectangle
- considering a bigger perspective, the probabilities for a retesting of a lower box range area are quite high
-...
Possible actions:
*Bull
+2 bull patterns that define supp levels still in action (green arrow)
+ price at a neck line of inverted H&S (acting as supp)
+ at 38% fib level
+ stoch in oversold and ligh bull divergence
+ price at lower boll band
*Bear:
- strong upper res level defined by 4 strong bear patterns
- descending res trend line
- the low of lateral range...
PRO
+ bullish pattern that confirms possible trading range trade
+ unable to close under supp
+ stoch in oversold
+ hints low boll band
+ sma50 acting as supp
CONS
-long term diagonal lines may act as res (take care about possible bear pattern formations)
-R.R no more than 2:1
-possible H&S in formation
-may continue down till 38 fib level (round number there?)
