BTC LONG. This is only part of my strategy I use.

I think, that the current market condition is nothing new and has happened numerous times before. There are hardly any fundamentals to look at in BTC other than # of unique wallets, businesses that use them, hashrate, transaction volume, brand loyalty, story and the trust that comes from it. But most of it lags compared to the price action, and the price action dictates 80% of those fundamentals. Technical analysis is more powerful here than the stock market. Fundamentals work if you buy near/below the green line in my chart to get outsized returns, that is the basis of my strategy here. The green circles show the repeating price movement, that is happening because the price is near the overbought red moving average in my chart. The blue middle line is the short term moving average, that the price follows most closely, goes below sometimes, but stays above it mostly in a hard bull run, that can give you a entry point if you missed the green line. The top 2 lines is are of exit. the first is mine and the top one is JPM called. Then I believe BTC goes into a bear cycle, before doing something similar to now. The exit I found is just resistance of the red line in the future, that will be penetrated like in the previous bull run. And the MVRV Z-Score.
I use these fundamental analysis websites to took at BTC.
www.lookintobitcoin....ithmic-growth-curve/
www.lookintobitcoin....tcoin-investor-tool/
www.lookintobitcoin..../charts/mvrv-zscore/
My entry point is below or near the 730 MA and I believe that is the closest BTC real value. As long BTC is a thing, and you buy near that MA you should not lose money, historically speaking.
My exit point is above the 730 MA * 5 ( not 730*5, but the output of the 730 MA * 5 ( for example 730 MA is $7000, 730 MA * 5 = $35,000) I also take a look at the logarithmic growth curve.
MVRV-Z score shows similar stuff, you don't need it, but you can use it in addition, if you're in doubt.

You don't need to be smart, you just need to be patient, and BUY LOW AND SELL HIGH. It's simple but people forget that you need to buy when other people are not interested and be patient. When everyone is already talking and it's on the news, it's a bit too late to get outsized returns. Most people have 11% annual returns on and investment that goes 4X in a year.

As a disclaimer, I am in no way a financial advisor, and if something happens, like a BTC ban... All of this technical analysis goes to shit.
I hope this will help you make better decisions in tackling the crypto market.

The long term value of BTC is ~$10,500.
Pure technical, pricing valuation, because there is no other way.
That is my valuation for BTC, have fun.