Cotton has been bearish since the break of 80. How long can this bearish trend last, what are the chances of a reversal or a pull back?
Weekly:
Since September/2014 weekly candles could not close above Tenkan Sen (9 weeks average). The weekly Kumo is thick and well above Price, so we can not expect a real bullish trend reversal soon. This week is far not over, but on Friday we'll have to check the recent candle close, as if it prints a doji candle, or still a red one but with a body inside the range of the previous candle's body, then the chance of a correction will increase. That would also mean haDelta cross above its SMA3.
Please note that despite Price coming lower and lower, there is an obvious positive divergence in haDelta/SMA3. Will the bears lose control finally? Well, if Price closes above Tenkan Sen at 59,945 (very important level, you will see below why), then we may see some short covering pushing up price to Kijun Sen at 62,52.
Daily:
We had an early signal of a possible short term trend slowdown / swing reversal three days ago in form of a red candle with both upper and lower wicks. That day haDelta crossed above SMA3. Yesterday we had a confirmation: green doji-like candle with long upper and lower wicks and haDelta more above its SMA3. Also the Oscillator (set for 26 period) gave a bullish signal, haDelta is already above zero, SMA3 may cross above zero line too.
This is a short term bullish signal. Price will likely go up, the question is how high it will move?
And here comes again the power of multi time frame analyses: as you see both daily Kijun Sen and Senkou B have same level at 59,945. This exactly matches the weekly Tenkan Sen. This can be our first short term retracement target. For a bullish break and reversal on the daily chart price should close and stay first above 59,945, then above the current Kumo top at 61,15.
Weekly:
Since September/2014 weekly candles could not close above Tenkan Sen (9 weeks average). The weekly Kumo is thick and well above Price, so we can not expect a real bullish trend reversal soon. This week is far not over, but on Friday we'll have to check the recent candle close, as if it prints a doji candle, or still a red one but with a body inside the range of the previous candle's body, then the chance of a correction will increase. That would also mean haDelta cross above its SMA3.
Please note that despite Price coming lower and lower, there is an obvious positive divergence in haDelta/SMA3. Will the bears lose control finally? Well, if Price closes above Tenkan Sen at 59,945 (very important level, you will see below why), then we may see some short covering pushing up price to Kijun Sen at 62,52.
Daily:
We had an early signal of a possible short term trend slowdown / swing reversal three days ago in form of a red candle with both upper and lower wicks. That day haDelta crossed above SMA3. Yesterday we had a confirmation: green doji-like candle with long upper and lower wicks and haDelta more above its SMA3. Also the Oscillator (set for 26 period) gave a bullish signal, haDelta is already above zero, SMA3 may cross above zero line too.
This is a short term bullish signal. Price will likely go up, the question is how high it will move?
And here comes again the power of multi time frame analyses: as you see both daily Kijun Sen and Senkou B have same level at 59,945. This exactly matches the weekly Tenkan Sen. This can be our first short term retracement target. For a bullish break and reversal on the daily chart price should close and stay first above 59,945, then above the current Kumo top at 61,15.
