November bubble has yet to finish correction, trend unchanged
Many analysts have taken to calling the most recent selloff to 340 the final "bottom" of the November bubble correction, as it did touch a strong long-term trendline that is presumed to be supporting the price into the future. Even now, price action has flattened to epic levels of boredom as we approach the intersection of that trendline (dotted brown, above) with the descending January bear triangle top. Clearly there is a great deal of expectation that we've "finished" this November bubble correction, and the current sideways (instead of more sliding) is a sign that the trend has shifted. These same expectations are projecting that we breach that bear triangle very soon, and start a new bubble rally shortly thereafter.
However, a study of the general bias of the price action after each of the major bounce rallies since January shows a clear downward angle, and if we are to assume the last bounce (from $340) is the last one, we should be seeing a marked shift in the trend bias, maybe as was seen in the period following the April 2013 bubble correction, when a final selloff resulted in a bounce -- and then a new gradual but clear trend bias that pointed the way to the November bubble. But that is not what is visible in the daily candles or in the RSI trends. Thus I find it hard to view this last selloff as the "final bubble bottom", but am expecting further decline.
Another factor that might be at work here is the orange zone, which represents a gap in the price -- where we only crossed that zone during the steep November rally and have yet to retrace that price range from $340 all the way down to the April bubble high of $260. Such a retesting of the previous ATH would be a very strong conclusion to the November bubble and could very well support a strong exit rally.
Whatever drop might yet come, until we see a clear shift in the average price action trend angle (as happened in July 2013), it will be difficult to conclude that we have left this 6-month long bear market trend.
However, a study of the general bias of the price action after each of the major bounce rallies since January shows a clear downward angle, and if we are to assume the last bounce (from $340) is the last one, we should be seeing a marked shift in the trend bias, maybe as was seen in the period following the April 2013 bubble correction, when a final selloff resulted in a bounce -- and then a new gradual but clear trend bias that pointed the way to the November bubble. But that is not what is visible in the daily candles or in the RSI trends. Thus I find it hard to view this last selloff as the "final bubble bottom", but am expecting further decline.
Another factor that might be at work here is the orange zone, which represents a gap in the price -- where we only crossed that zone during the steep November rally and have yet to retrace that price range from $340 all the way down to the April bubble high of $260. Such a retesting of the previous ATH would be a very strong conclusion to the November bubble and could very well support a strong exit rally.
Whatever drop might yet come, until we see a clear shift in the average price action trend angle (as happened in July 2013), it will be difficult to conclude that we have left this 6-month long bear market trend.
