ronfkingswanson

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About me Crypto-currency miner, trader, and evangelist.
Online Joined Rocky Mountains, USA
Preparing to be either stoned or exonerated...
Markets Allocation
38 % cryptocurrency 2 % indices 61 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
BTCE:BTCUSD 42% | 27 LTCUSD 23% | 15 BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 14% | 9 MTGOX:BTCUSD 10% | 7
ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson TOP BTCUSD, 240, Short ,
BTCUSD: Rinse, Wash, Repeat: the fractal road to 8K
32218 85 423
BTCUSD, 240 Short
Rinse, Wash, Repeat: the fractal road to 8K

(see related ideas below) Called the 17.2K bulltrap when folks were expecting to unload bags at 18-19K. Called the 9K low on the second selloff, when folks were clamoring for even more blood. Now we're repeating the same rebound, retrace, and collapse cycle on this pitchfork. This rally should get stuck under the old yellow triangle bottom, so no more than 14K. ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson TOP EOSBTC, 60, Long ,
EOSBTC: Cup & Handle breakout, easy rally while BTC dumps
3099 8 19
EOSBTC, 60 Long
Cup & Handle breakout, easy rally while BTC dumps

BTC is about to dump on its bearflag for the next day or so (down to 10,300) -- and that should coincide nicely with this Cup & Handle setup on EOS. Targeting the 1.618 extension on the cup bottom fibs. Should peak about 0.00165, then fall back to retest the previous high. After BTC hits its low target, should begin a rally to 13,600 -- so this is a great way to ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson TOP BTCUSD, 60, Short ,
BTCUSD: Rebound retrace, simple bear flag takes us to 0.705 OTE buy zone
6225 38 79
BTCUSD, 60 Short
Rebound retrace, simple bear flag takes us to 0.705 OTE buy zone

Textbook bear flag correction on the way down to 10,300 - after that expecting rally to wrestle with the old yellow bear trendline, then finally onwards to 13,600 high target Right now we're just bouncing around inside the white ranging box (between the 50% fibs of both moves). Note how the big selloff rebounded to the 0.705 OTE retrace, so I'm expecting the ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson TOP XRPUSD, 60, Short ,
XRPUSD: Rebound retrace inception, follow the 0.705 for XRP targets
5776 11 55
XRPUSD, 60 Short
Rebound retrace inception, follow the 0.705 for XRP targets

Selloff rebounded perfectly to the 0.705 OTE zone, and while ripple at first formed a nice bullish pennant, it fell out the bottom as bitcoin was more bearish and pulled everyone down again. So if we're still going up in the mid-term, I'm looking for the reversal to happen at the 0.705 retrace of the rebound itself. Then we can continue on to the $2.10 sell ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson TOP BTCUSD, 240, Short ,
BTCUSD: ATH correction scenario, bottom-heavy triangle could drop to 9K
3932 19 47
BTCUSD, 240 Short
ATH correction scenario, bottom-heavy triangle could drop to 9K

Thanks to some "Korea Bans Bitcoin" FUD news, we slammed into the existing triangle floor a little too hard and various exchanges busted the previously solid rising trendline (except Bitfinex). This sets up a possible lower triangle floor as we slowly, carefully rebound from this danger zone. Bulls are not climbing strong here, nerves have been rattled, so even ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson TOP BTCUSD, 240,
BTCUSD: Strong upside breakout from triangle, heading to bulltrap zone..
5146 16 63
BTCUSD, 240
Strong upside breakout from triangle, heading to bulltrap zone..

Everyone's been watching how this triangle resolved, and here we are. NOTE that oooold RSI purple trendline . We could have banged our heads against it but instead it's busted too. Still inside the 4H cloud, hugging the 200MA like a lifeline. Needs to solidly breach the cloud (could slide down the top a bit to 14,400 where the 0.382 fib is) before continuing to ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson TOP BTCUSD, 240, Short ,
BTCUSD: Have a merry, bloody bitcoin christmas ;)
4006 8 28
BTCUSD, 240 Short
Have a merry, bloody bitcoin christmas ;)

Setup for a 40% drop again, second leg of the measured move, with cheap coin buy zone at 9K. If this recent selloff to 11K was really the "bottom", we should have sprung back up forcefully to retrace -- but we never got above the 50% level, which is rather bearish given all the recent enthusiasm. Also failed to break above the orange ceiling trendline at a crucial ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson TOP BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: Sometimes the best thing to do is just scribble, wait, and HODL
2409 5 41
BTCUSD, D Long
Sometimes the best thing to do is just scribble, wait, and HODL

This is that chart -- the one that I never published, but should have long ago, because for once I stopped trying to make a technical analysis, grabbed the marker and just scribbled a potential path based on the price action in this two-year long bull channel. Back on June 16th, as the rally was peaking in the blue zone, I freehanded a sloppy pink scribble which ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson TOP BTCUSD, D, Short ,
BTCUSD: This time it's different™ — or is the old bear still in charge?
2373 9 25
BTCUSD, D Short
This time it's different™ — or is the old bear still in charge?

Yeah, yeah, I know all the reasons why things are different now, and we did actually bust this fork already, but you'll have to forgive me for not reading the exact same signs that have proceeded the bear market waterfalls for almost 2 years now. I've been using this same damn chart for too long. I'm sure it's invalidated by a bunch of stuff, but that stubborn ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson TOP BCHAIN/MKPRU, W, Long ,
BCHAIN/MKPRU: Bitcoin's next bubble: are we heading for $12,000 next summer?
8175 17 52
BCHAIN/MKPRU, W Long
Bitcoin's next bubble: are we heading for $12,000 next summer?

Time for some wild speculation, looking at where we might be in a year, if the bulls have their way. The next "reward halving" coming in July 2016 could easily fuel another bubbly rally (whether you think that's a valid reason or not :P) I've been using this dusty old fork for a really long time now, and at this weekly scale, there's a lot of wiggle room. So ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson TOP BTCUSD, 240, Long ,
BTCUSD: Time for a trip to the top of the current sideways range?
768 7 17
BTCUSD, 240 Long
Time for a trip to the top of the current sideways range?

Plenty of doomsayers around here, and I'm fully aware we're still in bear market territory – but we have been ranging pretty much flat sideways for months now, and there's still room for a minor bull push without robbing the bears of their eventual collapse into $120 territory. The local bull channel I'm watching above might easily break down, but really until we ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson TOP BTCUSD, 240, Long ,
BTCUSD: Winding up for another quick bull run to challenge Old Bear Line
945 6 13
BTCUSD, 240 Long
Winding up for another quick bull run to challenge Old Bear Line

We've been crawling carefully up this local bull channel, and could still drop a leg to the bottom of it before bouncing, but if you notice the yellow circles, we might actually be about to repeat the move of Feb 26th, where we formed a small arch before exploding into a strong 5-wave bull push. The fibs I've placed are clearly projections, as we haven't finished ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson TOP BTCUSD, 240, Long ,
BTCUSD: Starting a new 5-wave bull push; projected fibs -> $270 top?
812 10 10
BTCUSD, 240 Long
Starting a new 5-wave bull push; projected fibs -> $270 top?

EDIT 4/27 – $269 TARGET HIT seems like BTCE went a bit overboard (as usual) compared to the others, but coins were traded, orders went thru just fine, so target counts ;-) EDIT 4/22 – see first comment chart below with revised descent channel and alternate 5-wave path to $288 max high target We find ourselves on 4H RSI and MACD right back in the same position as ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson TOP BTCUSD, D, Short ,
BTCUSD: Another bull channel busted – back to riding the bear fork rails
1235 11 21
BTCUSD, D Short
Another bull channel busted – back to riding the bear fork rails

No matter how you frame it, this recent corrective channel (since mid-January) has failed to hold. And a quick look back at the history of this big bubble bear slide shows we're just getting started on another bloody descent. Happens every time, and until the candles finally bust that fork top, the dominant trend here is still down... If there's one thing that ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson TOP BTCUSD, D, Short ,
BTCUSD: Full RSI cycle (hi-lo-hi) but lower price = more bear to come
765 9 18
BTCUSD, D Short
Full RSI cycle (hi-lo-hi) but lower price = more bear to come

While we may still have some oomph left in this rally (settling in the low 300s for a while), the daily RSI is showing a perfect cycle from HI in Nov 12, 2014 to LOW in Jan 13, 2015 and back to the same HI here in March 11. Each wave is almost perfectly two months long. But while RSI has formed a totally flat top, the price from the november peak to today is ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson TOP BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: Pivotal zone at $590 shows support forming bullish pennant
682 6 10
BTCUSD, D Long
Pivotal zone at $590 shows support forming bullish pennant

For me, the most dominant movement affecting priced action for the past two months was the non-stop rally from 440-680 that went from may into june. We've had pullbacks, retracements, etc - but overall that movement has managed to consolidate itself above the 0.382 fib, which is inherently bullish. The first deep selloff reached 0.618, but further tests of ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson TOP LTCBTC, D, Short ,
LTCBTC: identifying historic cycles in LTC/BTC, waiting for next pivot
2651 8 20
LTCBTC, D Short
identifying historic cycles in LTC/BTC, waiting for next pivot

Once again, we're in that phase where cries of "Litecoin is dead!" are everywhere. But no matter what you think about all the hip new trendy alt-coins with flashy features, the historical truth is that Litecoin has been on the exchanges for years, and has served generations of traders as a useful vehicle in and out of BTC (without touching fiat). Miners have been ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson TOP BTCUSD, 3D,
BTCUSD: Strong breakout from Nov. bear triangle, but no moon just yet
1911 4 11
BTCUSD, 3D
Strong breakout from Nov. bear triangle, but no moon just yet

Naturally the breach of the lower november bear triangle that we've been fighting for almost 6 months resulted in a surge of bull euphoria. That energy took us strongly through the upper bear triangle as well -- another bullish sign. However, we're likely nearing the top of this push, and it remains to be seen how the market will proceed after this peak. One ...

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