ronfkingswanson

This is that chart -- the one that I never published, but should have long ago, because for once I stopped trying to make a technical analysis, grabbed the marker and just scribbled a potential path based on the price action in this two-year long bull channel. Back on June 16th, as the rally was peaking in the blue zone, I freehanded a sloppy pink scribble which ...

Yeah, yeah, I know all the reasons why things are different now, and we did actually bust this fork already, but you'll have to forgive me for not reading the exact same signs that have proceeded the bear market waterfalls for almost 2 years now. I've been using this same damn chart for too long. I'm sure it's invalidated by a bunch of stuff, but that stubborn ...

Time for some wild speculation, looking at where we might be in a year, if the bulls have their way. The next "reward halving" coming in July 2016 could easily fuel another bubbly rally (whether you think that's a valid reason or not :P) I've been using this dusty old fork for a really long time now, and at this weekly scale, there's a lot of wiggle room. So ...

Plenty of doomsayers around here, and I'm fully aware we're still in bear market territory – but we have been ranging pretty much flat sideways for months now, and there's still room for a minor bull push without robbing the bears of their eventual collapse into $120 territory. The local bull channel I'm watching above might easily break down, but really until we ...

We've been crawling carefully up this local bull channel, and could still drop a leg to the bottom of it before bouncing, but if you notice the yellow circles, we might actually be about to repeat the move of Feb 26th, where we formed a small arch before exploding into a strong 5-wave bull push. The fibs I've placed are clearly projections, as we haven't finished ...

EDIT 4/27 – $269 TARGET HIT seems like BTCE went a bit overboard (as usual) compared to the others, but coins were traded, orders went thru just fine, so target counts ;-) EDIT 4/22 – see first comment chart below with revised descent channel and alternate 5-wave path to $288 max high target We find ourselves on 4H RSI and MACD right back in the same position as ...

No matter how you frame it, this recent corrective channel (since mid-January) has failed to hold. And a quick look back at the history of this big bubble bear slide shows we're just getting started on another bloody descent. Happens every time, and until the candles finally bust that fork top, the dominant trend here is still down... If there's one thing that ...

While we may still have some oomph left in this rally (settling in the low 300s for a while), the daily RSI is showing a perfect cycle from HI in Nov 12, 2014 to LOW in Jan 13, 2015 and back to the same HI here in March 11. Each wave is almost perfectly two months long. But while RSI has formed a totally flat top, the price from the november peak to today is ...

For me, the most dominant movement affecting priced action for the past two months was the non-stop rally from 440-680 that went from may into june. We've had pullbacks, retracements, etc - but overall that movement has managed to consolidate itself above the 0.382 fib, which is inherently bullish. The first deep selloff reached 0.618, but further tests of ...

Once again, we're in that phase where cries of "Litecoin is dead!" are everywhere. But no matter what you think about all the hip new trendy alt-coins with flashy features, the historical truth is that Litecoin has been on the exchanges for years, and has served generations of traders as a useful vehicle in and out of BTC (without touching fiat). Miners have been ...

Naturally the breach of the lower november bear triangle that we've been fighting for almost 6 months resulted in a surge of bull euphoria. That energy took us strongly through the upper bear triangle as well -- another bullish sign. However, we're likely nearing the top of this push, and it remains to be seen how the market will proceed after this peak. One ...

Many analysts have taken to calling the most recent selloff to 340 the final "bottom" of the November bubble correction, as it did touch a strong long-term trendline that is presumed to be supporting the price into the future. Even now, price action has flattened to epic levels of boredom as we approach the intersection of that trendline (dotted brown, above) with ...

Despite the various historic rising trendlines of support flattening the price to record levels of boredom, this approach to the big Januaray bear triangle is appearing to be setup for yet another slow rolloff resolution. It will get much closer than before, even kissing that triangle top, but it's just a bullish tease. Looking back to the last 2 sideways ...

There are many other projections around trying to guess the "bottom" of the bubble correction, and there are many trendlines and historical patterns to consider in defining that bottom. This analysis ignores the past data and simply looks at the price action since the November ATH as one long corrective series of oscillations "deflating" the bubble. On its own, ...

My last chart also anticipated a pre-dump rally, but expected it to max out at the channel boundary around $430. But the constant pushes from Chinese exchanges have resulted in a slow, determined penetration of that channel top, and now has the 4H ichi cloud in its sights. That, combined with the very large asks on BTC-e had me believing we'd easily be dropping ...

This is a continuation of the same projection of a 3-drives pattern, linked below. Clearly, there has been no rally to a reversal at the expected channel intersection, but we seem to finally be rounding up the bowl now, likely as a final price pump before a deep selloff to come as we approach a crucial May 10th deadline for China exchanges and banks. The overhead ...

The recent bounce on BTC-e at 413 revealed another trend reversal at a major channel intersection, just like the one near 451 that I referenced in the chart linked below, after the pullback from the high in this series of 544. Overlaying both rising and falling channels then revealed the strong selloff reversal that came near 490 (with the release of the Caixin ...

Thanks to our prolific @LazyBear, who has scripted a number of excellent indicators, I was introduced to the Twiggs Money Flow, which shows accumulation/distribution much like Chaikin Money Flow, but with a few tweaks. To quote, "Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation if above zero, while negative values signal distribution. The higher the reading (above or below ...