ronfkingswanson

For my fellow crypto-pirates who lived through the 2013 double-bubble party on the titanic S.S. Gox, then clung to driftwood in the great Bear Sea for two years, there are two ways to judge where we're at on the charts: Either we're already adrift post-peak-bubble and bear season is hardly over (bulls have such short memories of how long bear season can last) --...

Yes, I know we're still falling. Yes, this 6900 zone might not hold, and I'm publishing this too soon. Yes, it would be better to confirm the bottom and reversal. Don't care. Despite the fussing and whining of some annoying and overly-anal trolls, my charts are not scripture, they're just pretty pictures scribbled by a cranky old cuss. And this one was too pretty...

Yes, other folks are calling for endless doom, like we're stuck in the ATH bear channel forever until $2K. I think we already reversed at $6K, as evidenced by the formations (and lack of retraces) in the rally that followed up to $11,700. Now we've retraced that pump all the way back to the magic 0.705 OTE zone, and are primed for the next run up. Could we drop a...

Yes, other folks are calling for endless doom, like we're stuck in the ATH bear channel forever until $2K. I think we already reversed at $6K, as evidenced by the formations (and lack of retraces) in the rally that followed up to $11,800. Now we've retraced that pump all the way back to the magic 0.705 OTE zone, and are primed for the next run up. Could we drop a...

We've been stuck under a local ceiling of 0.02 for almost a year. Ranging sideways, just hopping up and down the levels. But now that the ratio has definitively popped above that ceiling, the obvious question is, "how high can this go?" Most exchanges open today only have data going back to the highest peaks of 0.033, so that's an obvious resistance level. I...

Some folks think I don't make my charts and explanations simple enough to understand. So here's a plain one ;) Looking to top out 15-16K, probably about the same time the next round of futures contracts close... (check out my related charts below if you want to read more details, there really is more to the analysis than a wave count and falling wedge) If this...

We just dropped ~60% from the recent 19K peak down to just past the 0.705 retrace. We kissed the 200MA in the process, having fallen through the 100MA. Look familiar? News of government crackdowns and exchanges being hacked have turned the euphoric parabolic moon-bulls into panicked waterfall dumping bears. Yawn. For those of us who lived and traded through...

We've been on this road since the ATH, but the exact route we would take on the way has been cause for much debate. We had one bull trap at 17.2K, but everything since has been heavy. Even my own forecasts for a momentary sunny trip to the topside of the pitchfork (before more winter) have fallen flat as we just keep slumping to the bottom with greater velocity....

CME bitcoin futures termination of trading happens Friday (last of the month) at 4pm London time. We've got about 24 hours. The previous CBOE expiration was preceded by a massive selloff right up to the end (mid-january) -- and then a big rebound rally. So for those expecting another heavy dump, why are we consolidating on support? If there was going to be...

We've solidly settled the recent 10K bottom, and finally popped above the major 11,100 S/R line (from the big ATH selloff bottom). Next challenge is breaching the yellow downtrend shoulder line at 12K, which also happens to be where the pitchfork median is waiting. Note the red circle both here and back on Jan 2nd when we rallied from the same crossing point. **If...

(see related ideas below) Called the 17.2K bulltrap when folks were expecting to unload bags at 18-19K. Called the 9K low on the second selloff, when folks were clamoring for even more blood. Now we're repeating the same rebound, retrace, and collapse cycle on this pitchfork. This rally should get stuck under the old yellow triangle bottom, so no more than 14K....

BTC is about to dump on its bearflag for the next day or so (down to 10,300) -- and that should coincide nicely with this Cup & Handle setup on EOS. Targeting the 1.618 extension on the cup bottom fibs. Should peak about 0.00165, then fall back to retest the previous high. After BTC hits its low target, should begin a rally to 13,600 -- so this is a great way to...

Textbook bear flag correction on the way down to 10,300 - after that expecting rally to wrestle with the old yellow bear trendline, then finally onwards to 13,600 high target Right now we're just bouncing around inside the white ranging box (between the 50% fibs of both moves). Note how the big selloff rebounded to the 0.705 OTE retrace, so I'm expecting the...

Selloff rebounded perfectly to the 0.705 OTE zone, and while ripple at first formed a nice bullish pennant, it fell out the bottom as bitcoin was more bearish and pulled everyone down again. So if we're still going up in the mid-term, I'm looking for the reversal to happen at the 0.705 retrace of the rebound itself. Then we can continue on to the $2.10 sell...

Thanks to some "Korea Bans Bitcoin" FUD news, we slammed into the existing triangle floor a little too hard and various exchanges busted the previously solid rising trendline (except Bitfinex). This sets up a possible lower triangle floor as we slowly, carefully rebound from this danger zone. Bulls are not climbing strong here, nerves have been rattled, so even...

Everyone's been watching how this triangle resolved, and here we are. NOTE that oooold RSI purple trendline . We could have banged our heads against it but instead it's busted too. Still inside the 4H cloud, hugging the 200MA like a lifeline. Needs to solidly breach the cloud (could slide down the top a bit to 14,400 where the 0.382 fib is) before continuing to...

Setup for a 40% drop again, second leg of the measured move, with cheap coin buy zone at 9K. If this recent selloff to 11K was really the "bottom", we should have sprung back up forcefully to retrace -- but we never got above the 50% level, which is rather bearish given all the recent enthusiasm. Also failed to break above the orange ceiling trendline at a crucial...

This is that chart -- the one that I never published, but should have long ago, because for once I stopped trying to make a technical analysis, grabbed the marker and just scribbled a potential path based on the price action in this two-year long bull channel. Back on June 16th, as the rally was peaking in the blue zone, I freehanded a sloppy pink scribble which...