ronfkingswanson

ronfkingswanson Updated 

Yes, I know the bear scenarios. I have them myself. Yes, I get that the current formation looks a lot like Feb-March. But -- that was pre-covid and pre-halving, this is post-covid and post-halving, so I can't really expect an identical resolution of dumping to follow. The "toppy" formations might look the same, but the fundamentals aren't. This is a very...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

Yes, I definitely got my earlier Wyckoff charts wrong. My first mistake was not realizing the BC at 9480 actually defined the top of the entire Trading Range - which led to the second mistake of labeling the rise to 9200 as the UTAD, when really it was the ST, and the rise that followed the presumed SOW to 10K was the **actual** UTAD. I was wrong in assuming the...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

We've been on a constant up/sideways/up/sideways/up formation, that has just broken a major ceiling trendline drawn from July 2019. Lots of folks expecting this to stop at 10K, but I think we're just getting started, and the next major resistance is the ATH ceiling trendline from Dec 2017 (around 11.2K). Also happens to be the 1.618 extension of the rally to 9480,...

ronfkingswanson

I remember buying bitcoin to trade on BTC-e, Mt. Gox, and Bitstamp back when it was $200. Obviously only one of those exchanges is still standing, and it's sadly not the one I kept my coins on. The market dynamics underlying these bubble runs reveals itself in the candles, their fractals - and thanks to the global Covid-19 crash, we've just had another defining...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

Welcome to Phase D! CME futures opened on the black line, and we pretty quickly dumped to the bottom of the trading range thereafter. This set us up for an obvious SOW (sign of weakness) dropping below trading range. So my previous sell zone on the way to a last 9K bulltrap turned out to be too optimistic, and any rebound we get now, after dumping 4 solid times...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

My last chart mapped out the Wyckoff structures, but left out the UTAD: upthrust after distribution , assuming that the LPSY dumping was already in progress. As it so happens, the selling I prematurely thought was the end of the TR -- was in fact whales testing distribution, but followed by the UTAD (a driven move hitting stops and forcing a vertical move to...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

Coordinated, perfectly timed whale bids dragged us up the nonstop incline from 7750-9480, not giving bears a chance to breathe or pause at all. But the pumps went quiet after we got near to the major downline overhead, and we didn't *quite* kiss it. No doubt, market inertia (and emboldened bulls) will try to reach for that line a second time - but for right now,...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

Pumpwhales decided they were done at 9480, so the bears have finally found their appetite. Dark rising trendline is the floor, should hold for some time, we've got some bulls to exhaust before the big correction comes. Was long since 6800, when this rally started, fibs will be the guide. Expect whiplash even steeper than the pump in some places 😉

ronfkingswanson Updated 

As long as bitcoin has no self-direction (stocks started the dump, they'll determine when we finally fall out of the channel too) we might as well keep rallying. It's how altcoins relate to bitcoin all the time - "we haven't dumped yet, might as well pump!!" This time, bitcoin itself is at the mercy of external factors, but regardless of how bearish things are...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

Previous chart showed the bear scenario down to 3K, but the timing of the next selloff was being held up while BTC broke down out of its rising wedge and mostly went sideways. This is great for local chop swings, but confuses the hell out of those expecting BTC to move with volume based on only its own TA patterns. Thing is, the recent selloff impulse that we're...

ronfkingswanson

It's not a forecast, it's just a history of an amazing road I've been on in some form or another since 2013. Pitchfork set on the first big bull move 2013, a great impulse to frame the following years of price action. Interestingly, it's been almost exactly seven years since that first dramatic rise. We've just made a perfectly symmetrical ping of the 1.618,...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

Opened shorts at 7400 and got a second chance at 7200. Everyone was yelling about wedge breakdown a little too early, got faked out by this last kiss of the ceiling (that was immediately retraced 100%) 😂 YES - I've got two opposing harmonics plotted out, and it's premature for either of them. That's the whole damn point. Don't care if it's kosher, it helps me see...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

With the global pandemic slaughtering markets for the next while, nobody has any stomach for volatile speculative assets (like crypto), so I expect the dumping to continue, and any rallies to run out of steam without fresh speculative interest. We'll touch the fabled "2K COINS" range in a panic spike at the bottom of this pink wedge, then market should range...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

For my fellow crypto-pirates who lived through the 2013 double-bubble party on the titanic S.S. Gox, then clung to driftwood in the great Bear Sea for two years, there are two ways to judge where we're at on the charts: Either we're already adrift post-peak-bubble and bear season is hardly over (bulls have such short memories of how long bear season can last) --...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

Yes, I know we're still falling. Yes, this 6900 zone might not hold, and I'm publishing this too soon. Yes, it would be better to confirm the bottom and reversal. Don't care. Despite the fussing and whining of some annoying and overly-anal trolls, my charts are not scripture, they're just pretty pictures scribbled by a cranky old cuss. And this one was too pretty...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

Yes, other folks are calling for endless doom, like we're stuck in the ATH bear channel forever until $2K. I think we already reversed at $6K, as evidenced by the formations (and lack of retraces) in the rally that followed up to $11,700. Now we've retraced that pump all the way back to the magic 0.705 OTE zone, and are primed for the next run up. Could we drop a...

ronfkingswanson

Yes, other folks are calling for endless doom, like we're stuck in the ATH bear channel forever until $2K. I think we already reversed at $6K, as evidenced by the formations (and lack of retraces) in the rally that followed up to $11,800. Now we've retraced that pump all the way back to the magic 0.705 OTE zone, and are primed for the next run up. Could we drop a...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

We've been stuck under a local ceiling of 0.02 for almost a year. Ranging sideways, just hopping up and down the levels. But now that the ratio has definitively popped above that ceiling, the obvious question is, "how high can this go?" Most exchanges open today only have data going back to the highest peaks of 0.033, so that's an obvious resistance level. I...