ronfkingswanson

PRO
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About me Crypto-currency miner, trader, and evangelist.
Joined Rocky Mountains, USA
Preparing to be either stoned or exonerated...
Markets Allocation
30 % cryptocurrency 2 % indices 68 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
BTCE:BTCUSD 47% | 27 LTCUSD 26% | 15 MTGOX:BTCUSD 12% | 7 BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 8% | 5
ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson PRO BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: Sometimes the best thing to do is just scribble, wait, and HODL
1992 5 40
BTCUSD, D Long
Sometimes the best thing to do is just scribble, wait, and HODL

This is that chart -- the one that I never published, but should have long ago, because for once I stopped trying to make a technical analysis, grabbed the marker and just scribbled a potential path based on the price action in this two-year long bull channel. Back on June 16th, as the rally was peaking in the blue zone, I freehanded a sloppy pink scribble which ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson PRO BTCUSD, D, Short ,
BTCUSD: This time it's different™ — or is the old bear still in charge?
2184 9 25
BTCUSD, D Short
This time it's different™ — or is the old bear still in charge?

Yeah, yeah, I know all the reasons why things are different now, and we did actually bust this fork already, but you'll have to forgive me for not reading the exact same signs that have proceeded the bear market waterfalls for almost 2 years now. I've been using this same damn chart for too long. I'm sure it's invalidated by a bunch of stuff, but that stubborn ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson PRO BCHAIN/MKPRU, W, Long ,
BCHAIN/MKPRU: Bitcoin's next bubble: are we heading for $12,000 next summer?
7013 9 43
BCHAIN/MKPRU, W Long
Bitcoin's next bubble: are we heading for $12,000 next summer?

Time for some wild speculation, looking at where we might be in a year, if the bulls have their way. The next "reward halving" coming in July 2016 could easily fuel another bubbly rally (whether you think that's a valid reason or not :P) I've been using this dusty old fork for a really long time now, and at this weekly scale, there's a lot of wiggle room. So ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson PRO BTCUSD, 240, Long ,
BTCUSD: Time for a trip to the top of the current sideways range?
710 7 17
BTCUSD, 240 Long
Time for a trip to the top of the current sideways range?

Plenty of doomsayers around here, and I'm fully aware we're still in bear market territory – but we have been ranging pretty much flat sideways for months now, and there's still room for a minor bull push without robbing the bears of their eventual collapse into $120 territory. The local bull channel I'm watching above might easily break down, but really until we ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson PRO BTCUSD, 240, Long ,
BTCUSD: Winding up for another quick bull run to challenge Old Bear Line
899 6 13
BTCUSD, 240 Long
Winding up for another quick bull run to challenge Old Bear Line

We've been crawling carefully up this local bull channel, and could still drop a leg to the bottom of it before bouncing, but if you notice the yellow circles, we might actually be about to repeat the move of Feb 26th, where we formed a small arch before exploding into a strong 5-wave bull push. The fibs I've placed are clearly projections, as we haven't finished ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson PRO BTCUSD, 240, Long ,
BTCUSD: Starting a new 5-wave bull push; projected fibs -> $270 top?
771 10 10
BTCUSD, 240 Long
Starting a new 5-wave bull push; projected fibs -> $270 top?

EDIT 4/27 – $269 TARGET HIT seems like BTCE went a bit overboard (as usual) compared to the others, but coins were traded, orders went thru just fine, so target counts ;-) EDIT 4/22 – see first comment chart below with revised descent channel and alternate 5-wave path to $288 max high target We find ourselves on 4H RSI and MACD right back in the same position as ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson PRO BTCUSD, D, Short ,
BTCUSD: Another bull channel busted – back to riding the bear fork rails
1178 11 21
BTCUSD, D Short
Another bull channel busted – back to riding the bear fork rails

No matter how you frame it, this recent corrective channel (since mid-January) has failed to hold. And a quick look back at the history of this big bubble bear slide shows we're just getting started on another bloody descent. Happens every time, and until the candles finally bust that fork top, the dominant trend here is still down... If there's one thing that ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson PRO BTCUSD, D, Short ,
BTCUSD: Full RSI cycle (hi-lo-hi) but lower price = more bear to come
729 9 18
BTCUSD, D Short
Full RSI cycle (hi-lo-hi) but lower price = more bear to come

While we may still have some oomph left in this rally (settling in the low 300s for a while), the daily RSI is showing a perfect cycle from HI in Nov 12, 2014 to LOW in Jan 13, 2015 and back to the same HI here in March 11. Each wave is almost perfectly two months long. But while RSI has formed a totally flat top, the price from the november peak to today is ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson PRO BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: Pivotal zone at $590 shows support forming bullish pennant
654 6 10
BTCUSD, D Long
Pivotal zone at $590 shows support forming bullish pennant

For me, the most dominant movement affecting priced action for the past two months was the non-stop rally from 440-680 that went from may into june. We've had pullbacks, retracements, etc - but overall that movement has managed to consolidate itself above the 0.382 fib, which is inherently bullish. The first deep selloff reached 0.618, but further tests of ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson PRO LTCBTC, D, Short ,
LTCBTC: identifying historic cycles in LTC/BTC, waiting for next pivot
2574 8 20
LTCBTC, D Short
identifying historic cycles in LTC/BTC, waiting for next pivot

Once again, we're in that phase where cries of "Litecoin is dead!" are everywhere. But no matter what you think about all the hip new trendy alt-coins with flashy features, the historical truth is that Litecoin has been on the exchanges for years, and has served generations of traders as a useful vehicle in and out of BTC (without touching fiat). Miners have been ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson PRO BTCUSD, 3D,
BTCUSD: Strong breakout from Nov. bear triangle, but no moon just yet
1851 4 11
BTCUSD, 3D
Strong breakout from Nov. bear triangle, but no moon just yet

Naturally the breach of the lower november bear triangle that we've been fighting for almost 6 months resulted in a surge of bull euphoria. That energy took us strongly through the upper bear triangle as well -- another bullish sign. However, we're likely nearing the top of this push, and it remains to be seen how the market will proceed after this peak. One ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson PRO BTCUSD, D, Short ,
BTCUSD: November bubble has yet to finish correction, trend unchanged
2051 14 21
BTCUSD, D Short
November bubble has yet to finish correction, trend unchanged

Many analysts have taken to calling the most recent selloff to 340 the final "bottom" of the November bubble correction, as it did touch a strong long-term trendline that is presumed to be supporting the price into the future. Even now, price action has flattened to epic levels of boredom as we approach the intersection of that trendline (dotted brown, above) with ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson PRO BTCUSD, 240, Short ,
BTCUSD: Bullish hopes hold sideways for many days, but rolloff pending
559 4 9
BTCUSD, 240 Short
Bullish hopes hold sideways for many days, but rolloff pending

Despite the various historic rising trendlines of support flattening the price to record levels of boredom, this approach to the big Januaray bear triangle is appearing to be setup for yet another slow rolloff resolution. It will get much closer than before, even kissing that triangle top, but it's just a bullish tease. Looking back to the last 2 sideways ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson PRO BTCUSD, D, Short ,
BTCUSD: Entire bubble correction since Jan. descends in 3-drives pattern
2637 25 20
BTCUSD, D Short
Entire bubble correction since Jan. descends in 3-drives pattern

There are many other projections around trying to guess the "bottom" of the bubble correction, and there are many trendlines and historical patterns to consider in defining that bottom. This analysis ignores the past data and simply looks at the price action since the November ATH as one long corrective series of oscillations "deflating" the bubble. On its own, ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson PRO BTCUSD, 240, Long ,
BTCUSD: Looming May 10th China deadline preceded by final short squeeze
1003 19 15
BTCUSD, 240 Long
Looming May 10th China deadline preceded by final short squeeze

My last chart also anticipated a pre-dump rally, but expected it to max out at the channel boundary around $430. But the constant pushes from Chinese exchanges have resulted in a slow, determined penetration of that channel top, and now has the 4H ichi cloud in its sights. That, combined with the very large asks on BTC-e had me believing we'd easily be dropping ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson PRO BTCUSD, 240, Short ,
BTCUSD: Week of sliding curls up in preparation for incoming selloff
747 10 15
BTCUSD, 240 Short
Week of sliding curls up in preparation for incoming selloff

This is a continuation of the same projection of a 3-drives pattern, linked below. Clearly, there has been no rally to a reversal at the expected channel intersection, but we seem to finally be rounding up the bowl now, likely as a final price pump before a deep selloff to come as we approach a crucial May 10th deadline for China exchanges and banks. The overhead ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson PRO BTCUSD, 240, Long ,
BTCUSD: 3 reversals at channel intersections, possible 3-drives pattern
1950 22 20
BTCUSD, 240 Long
3 reversals at channel intersections, possible 3-drives pattern

The recent bounce on BTC-e at 413 revealed another trend reversal at a major channel intersection, just like the one near 451 that I referenced in the chart linked below, after the pullback from the high in this series of 544. Overlaying both rising and falling channels then revealed the strong selloff reversal that came near 490 (with the release of the Caixin ...

ronfkingswanson ronfkingswanson PRO BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: A study of identifying the end of BTC bubbles with Money Flow
1386 8 23
BTCUSD, D Long
A study of identifying the end of BTC bubbles with Money Flow

Thanks to our prolific @LazyBear, who has scripted a number of excellent indicators, I was introduced to the Twiggs Money Flow, which shows accumulation/distribution much like Chaikin Money Flow, but with a few tweaks. To quote, "Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation if above zero, while negative values signal distribution. The higher the reading (above or below ...

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