ronfkingswanson
Long

Nearing reversal, forget finding perfect bottoms, just buckle up

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Yes, other folks are calling for endless doom, like we're stuck in the ATH bear channel forever until $2K. I think we already reversed at $6K, as evidenced by the formations (and lack of retraces) in the rally that followed up to $11,800. Now we've retraced that pump all the way back to the magic 0.705 OTE zone, and are primed for the next run up. Could we drop a little further? to the 0.764? more?? sure -- but you're better off dollar cost averaging your buys down here instead of chasing the PERFECT bottom, only to get stuck in the gutter as the rocket leaves the launch pad. So I'm quite happy to have bought $7700, and will buy again $7350 and $6950 -- because going up from here, on the right wing of this harmonic pattern , I'm not going to look back and care that much about a few hundred dollars at the entry point :P

As for timing - we're finishing this descending wedge , and falling until something kicks the market. And right now the looming "news event" (which often causes the market to stall in anticipation) is the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Argentina on Monday the 19th. It seems that cryptocurrency will be on the agenda.

So just like the senate hearings, where the world waited and held its breath, dumping alllllll the way up to the fateful day only to have nothing but positive news from the hearing itself -- we're still slumping in this wedge . The 19th provides the perfect intersection of rising trendlines , the 0.764 retrace fib, and this selloff, making $7350 my favorite entry point, but holding some reserve bids at $6950 as well, just in case bears try to spook the market by breaking a few trendlines at the last second and stop hunting. All it will take is the slightest whiff of favorable news from the world's finance misters, praising the blockchain or at least NOT banning crypto, to light the rocket.

Throughout this selloff, I've been forecasting and trading reversals based on the 0.705 OTE retrace (no, it's not a proper fib ratio). This has been dependable enough that I'm confident to buy in this zone, and to sell when we reach 14-16K. Here's a few examples of this retrace in action (many are too small to be seen on this daily scale, see related charts below):


PSA -- if your purpose in commenting below is just to spam your own charts (thinking you'll get more attention here) and shout me down, please do us all a favor, and go away. Contrary interpretations are always welcome, just don't be a dick about it
Thank goodness he is BACK
+4 Reply
Well, the right shoulder is formed nicely and only way seems to be down as no one would buy BTC just before G20 news on Monday. It is better for BTC to hit the bottom sooner so that a nice bull run can start.
Reply
"forget finding perfect bottoms, just buckle up". i like it, thanks
+3 Reply
We want more from @ronfkingswanson!
+2 Reply
I agree on that one! Yesterday BCH rocketed on me trying to place a limit order! Great analysis!
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Your charts are always insightful and well explained, one of the few decent top authors.. Keep up the good work.
+2 Reply
Thanks for this charting!
+1 Reply
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