Strong upside breakout from triangle, heading to bulltrap zone..

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Everyone's been watching how this triangle resolved, and here we are. NOTE that oooold RSI purple trendline . We could have banged our heads against it but instead it's busted too. Still inside the 4H cloud, hugging the 200MA like a lifeline. Needs to solidly breach the cloud (could slide down the top a bit to 14,400 where the 0.382 fib is) before continuing to 17-18K zone (also the completion of this big ol' blue bearish gartley ). Expect looooots of moon talk and a continued rally to 25-50K. Not saying it can't, but us old timers have seen the bulltrap from the 2013 bubble and know how it can languish for a looong time before falling. Until we break a new ATH             -1.57% , can't take any moonshots too seriously from this position. Falling out of the bulltrap, should be watching the lower triangle rising trendlines , which would have to collapse one by one, taking us to 9K. Of course the bulls will be pushing repeatedly on the top of the triangle, refusing to give up hope, which creates the long sideways slide before plummet.
Trade active: breakouts love to take a breather by snapping back onto the top or bottom of whatever they just broke :P could see a pullback to 14350 before next leg up, painting a nice happy bullflag
Trade active: pullback as expected, just went sideways a bit longer. We're now above the cloud and it's pretty typical to reach back down for support on the trendlines and MA we just breached
Comment: maybe this rally ends up being a three-drives pattern
Trade active: touch. on major triangle top and on the oooold RSI trendline. we can go up now. 17,200 looks like a good spot
Trade active: trendline popped after days of coiling around the MA
Comment: three drives pattern is doing quite nicely
Trade active: still hugging
Comment: Right wing almost done. Depending on the exhaustion of the bulls, could finish anywhere from 17-18K
Trade closed: target reached: first kiss of target zone. closed long 17,117 open from 14,400. Breaking 17K has emboldened the bulls, and we should continue ranging up and sideways for a while
Comment: this last push has failed to make any more meaningful progress, which could mean this rally is out of steam, making this the top of the triangle. Would be a *perfect* touch of the 0.705 OTE fib on this retrace from the ATH selloff. Adjusted the triangle assuming this is the local high.
Comment: Also - bearwhale on bitfinex has walled $17,200 with $10 million in asks :P
Comment: completion of gartley resulted in one hell of a dump. Whales kept walling up the asks shoving it further, and we panic spiked all the way to 14k zone. Candles closed still on top of that crucial blue ray, but it's only a matter of time before it gets breached again. I had thought maybe bulls would be so eager for their 18K that they'd keep up floating near the top of the triangle slowly losing steam, but clearly bearwhales are running the show, and they have no patience. I still see overall bearish price action, which should lead to us falling out the bottom and diving for 9K
Comment: dumping continues strong, bulls can't get a bounce, so the next target is the triangle floor at 13,200. Market sentiment gets more bearish, though some still think this is the setup for a new ATH rally :P
Comment: Korea exchange raid news caused such a sudden dump when we would have been rebounding that Bitstamp fell through the floor. Bitfinex and others, however, managed to not violate their triangles, and so the market seems to want to rebound a little. I wouldn't give this run much chance of getting to 15,500, let alone all the way to the triangle top like many bulls are hoping. So we'll fall out the floor again
Comment: This pitchfork is clearly in control since the ATH selloff. We just confirmed it with that panic sell wick touching the median perfectly. Besides the larger triangle needing to be resolved, these will be the channels that frame price for a while. Disclaimer - I am NOT an Elliot Wave expert my any means, this is just a simple scribble of how we would get to 9K
Comment: I had assumed bulls would keep pressure on the triangle top while slipping, which is why my original arrow path was on the high side of the triangle. But ever since the bull trap 17.2K bears have been in control, slapping down any rebounds and keeping us on the heavy side of the triangle bottom. We've broken down twice now, and the fallout is imminent.
Comment: got your fallout right here ;) bears slammed hard even through the double bottom 11K
Comment: I think there's good enough TA to call a local bottom on that last selloff. But we could see another drop later to 8600 if this rebound is weak. Note the RSI low point comparable to the ATH selloff. That was a heavy, straight drop, we should have some rebound and ranging for a while, but I'm not convinced we just moon from here.
Comment: breakout in progress getting above the 11,700 resistance, target 13,200 for this rebound, which would be a nice touch of the 50% fib
Comment: also a nice ABCD move
Comment: Looks like we get to ride this all over again ;)
wtf i think we found satoshi nakamoto
Best analysis I've seen. Keep it up!
+2 Reply
Amazing TA
reading this on every update - thanks ron
like clockwork! +10000
@ronfkingswanson This is still looking on point and lining up.... is that what you are seeing as well? One more wave down after hit around 15.6?
Thanks Ron! Please keep the updates coming!
Great stuff, thanks Ron
Really value your posts. Please don't stop!
+1 Reply
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