Trade setup - Price is telling us the market has reduced the worse-case scenario hedges, and we still like GBP longs from here. We like GBP too versus the EUR and CHF, but most of the flow remains in GBPUSD. The preference for cable is to stay long into 1.2990/1.3000, with stops below 1.2820, which as we can see is the downtrend drawn from the September high, as...
Why we like the trade - Gold is consolidating following its break above a multi-month channel line and formed a strong uptrend since the August low. The congestion is now taking shape in a consolidation pennant, most visible on the four-hour and daily time frame. A breakout to the topside and a test of $1300 level will evolve quickly, perhaps even going on to...
Trade set up - That daily chart shows a set-up that is remarkably similar to price action seen through November 2017. Where, after a sell-off and reversal, price consolidated in a triangle pattern. In both cases, we can see stochastic momentum making a series of lower highs, and should price now find sellers off trend resistance the first target is ¥112.25, where...
Trade set up - Enter on a daily close above the 10 day EMA with stops below the previous weekly low of 58.35 and a short-term price target of 70.00 - 71.00, looking to add to the position once broken above the downtrend channel.
Why we like this trade - Technically speaking, price looks to have found some support around the Feb 2017 high after the recent 33%...
Trade set up - Waiting for a pullback in the pair and confirmation of support before entering long, as this enables us to manage risk in a better way. However, aggressive traders can look at longs at the current market price. Stops set at $1235 and a take profit at $1262.
Why we like this trade - We've had gold on 'high-watch' for some time now and given the...
Trade setup - While sterling volatility had been widely expected to rise as the Brexit clock ticked down, we are happy to remain bearish on the pair in the short-term. We are looking for a short entry at 1.7380, with a stop just above the previous major high at 1.7490. With the Brexit vote likely to fail and the range of outcomes from here so diverse we target...
Trade Set Up – We would be looking to enter on a daily close above 5780 with stops confirmed once entered, and a target level of 5980-6000.
Why we like this trade – Whilst history is no guarantee of future price action it is important to note that a correlation in a Dec move over the past 10 years has yielded an average of +2.74%, all of which starts from the...
Trade set up
Tactically buyers of NZDUSD can position to enter a buy trade either after a closing break of resistance 0.6883 (16 November high), or after a retracement and retest of the top of the bullish flag pattern around 0.6790. A break out of the flag pattern has given us the confidence to trade this from the long side. We are targeting 0.7100 in weeks,...
Trade set up - We are cautiously optimistic when it comes to USDCAD and looking to trade the pair as a proxy of US crude and Western Canadian Select (WCS). We enter the trade long at the current price of 1.3295, with small position sizing and tight stops set at 1.3200, for a break of the bullish channel. However, if we see a break of 1.3182 (22 November low) our...
Trade set up
After a 13.7% fall from January 2018 highs, the price has made a bottoming formation, and we are looking to add to our previous long position. Our bullish bias needs to be confirmed by a weekly close above the resistance of 0.7304 (as highlighted on the chart) where we are looking to enter a long trade. The target is 0.7450 representing the 38.2%...
Trade Set up - In theory, tactically shorting the ‘Aussie’ around 0.7100, targeting the psychological level of 0.7000 level would make sense for technical trades, given the entry would be aligned to a strong underlying trend. That said, the big picture and set-up on the daily makes us cautious to take that trade, in fact, we would look to initiate a long entry if...
Trade set up: AUDUSD enjoyed a rally of 133-pips on the session, which to put into context was the biggest one-day move since March 2017, and was in effect a 3.1 standard deviation move. So, the move in price was punchy and was statistically significant. These moves relative to recent behaviour are rare.
Why we like it: This abrupt move broke through a...
If you like volatility GBP is the place to look, and we can see one-month GBPUSD implied volatility (vol) at 14.0%, relative to say AUDUSD and EURUSD vol at 9.34% and 7.57% respectively.
To put this into perspective, the implied move in GBPUSD over the coming month sits at 413-points from spot, and this expiry encompasses the expected Commons vote on 10 December....
Trade Parameters - After climbing to a three-month high on Wednesday, the rally in USDCAD fizzled on the back of broad USD weakness and various key Fed members acknowledging the shift in US and global economic outlook. We are looking to short USDCAD at the current level of 1.3147 with an initial profit target at 1.3078 –this being the 32.8% Fib. level of the last...
Trade Set Up - We have the USD index on ‘high watch’ as this contributes to our holistic stance on trading the USD, notably using the weekly chart, which gives good structure and oversight. Currently, our view is cautiously long, but a break through channel support on a weekly basis would see us adopt a natural view.
A close below 96.00 to 95.60 would further...
Trade set up: Our bias leans towards a short in the SPX, where we are looking for a break below the recent low of 2685 to enter the position. Upon this development, we would set a stop loss at 2725 and our take profit set at 2603. This profit target is subject to change and dependent on the price action, as a break of 2603 would hold huge bearish implications....
Trade set up: We have seen a ‘shooting star’ candle printed on Friday’s daily chart, depicting a potential short-term bearish move in the pair. However, buying the AUDUSD after a retracement into 0.7165 is still our preferred strategy. Given the importance of a three standard deviation move on Friday, our bullish trade is still in play ahead of US Midterm...
Trade set up This chart that simple has to be on the radar, as where price goes from here has huge implications for markets more broadly, even outside of G10 FX. Any currency pair breaking to new cycle lows is telling a clear message, so the importance of the 1.1300 level (15 August lows), which has really acted as key support since November 2016 , cannot be...
