Food4Thought
Long

Cypher D/W TF AA

BATS:AA   ALCOA CORP
829 18 12
This pattern has been forming for some time now, and I've been watching for any signs of strength to buy into this security as a long term play/investment. Unfortunately, I still cannot see the light at the end of the tunnel to warrant any serious investment; despite my reluctance to commit any size to this, a small technical play may be worth a punt.

Monitoring Alcoa             at around $7.70, it came to my attention that despite gaping up and looking for downside gains, it continued to be lifted into the close/open; Alcoa's reluctance to push any lower over a considerable time frame spanning at least 13 months, has instilled enough confidence/conviction in at least a temporary bottom being in place, and warrants a small long.

The trade is supported primarily by the completion of a Cypher pattern , confirmed by a bullish breach above the $8 handle last week. The meagre attempts at breaking through the 0.786 Fib. as well as the newly found buyers/short covering is enough reason to attempt a small technical long. The trade is further supported by the Federal Reserves reluctance to Taper this month. Whether you believe the taper is coming, or not, is truly irrelevant as you will find yourself sidelined out of excellent opportunities that present themselves.

The above being said, there are plenty of reasons for not buying into Alcoa             , including whether you truly believe that the global economies are on a path of sustainable self-sufficient growth to support Aluminium prices into the coming months and years ahead.

Trade Set-up:

Stop: $7.20/7.00
Entry: $8.30 and below at Daily EMAs located in the 8.08/8.16 region.
Target 1: $11.75
Target 2: $13.00
Target 3: $14.30
Food4Thought
3 years ago
snapshot


H2 view of the EMAs crossing to the upside: should lend support as buy side traders step in.
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Food4Thought
3 years ago
snapshot
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andrewunknown
3 years ago
nice one: good eye on the Cypher
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Food4Thought andrewunknown
3 years ago
Cheers, it should be noted the C point isn't quite right as it should technically have risen to $19.19; however the 0.786 on the XA seems to be holding the price, so will run with it.
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andrewunknown Food4Thought
3 years ago
I try to be a theoretically sound, but pragmatic harmonic practitioner: in the scope of a 5.5 year pattern 111% v. 113% is a rounding error, IMO. At any rate, nice work again, and great explanation.
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RedStaR Food4Thought
3 years ago
Since you're using a huge pattern, you should scale it on a weekly chart.

Actually it closes exactly on 113% on the weekly.

 
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RedStaR RedStaR
3 years ago
snapshot
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RedStaR RedStaR
3 years ago
P.S: How do you embed charts as img ?
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Food4Thought RedStaR
3 years ago
To embed a chart image you need to click on the chart snapshot button, next to the share on twitter button. Copy the URL, then shuffle back to your idea/chart construct. Final step involves clicking on the attach chart button inside the comment box, paste the URL and that's it. Hope that helps.
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RedStaR Food4Thought
3 years ago
Ahh, never noticed the attach chart button before.

Cheers!
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sublimares2
3 years ago
Nice structure indentification. The level $10 is a powerful level and the break and close above this level would likely confim the pattern.
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Food4Thought
3 years ago
snapshot


Conservative longs may wait to see this descending wedge resolve itself before executing buys.
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RedStaR Food4Thought
3 years ago
Looks like a short term cypher, probably bullish on the 78.6
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RedStaR RedStaR
3 years ago
I meant short term bat, bearish on 88.6 *

snapshot
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FxSaint
3 years ago
Its technically a sound setup, I hope it works out well for you. I would definitely buy into this setups without doubt. Cheers!
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2use
2 years ago
Great call!
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admin PRO
2 years ago
nice trade!
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2use admin
2 years ago
Wow, Admin also replies to this 9 months later. It was a great call indeed :) i checked some ideas and found people actually seen this. To those who followed it must have made a nice bank :)
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